Tennis betting tips: Preview and best bets for ATP Tour action in Dubai, Mexico and Chile

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt e.w. Karen Khachanov in the Dubai Duty Free Championships at 12/1 (General)

0.5pt e.w. Gael Monfils in the Dubai Duty Free Championships at 40/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Cameron Norrie in the Abierto Mexicano Telcel at 22/1 (bet365) - NON-RUNNER

0.5pt e.w. Yannick Hanfmann in the Movistar Chile Open at 16/1 (Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM)

0.5pt e.w. Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the Movistar Chile Open at 33/1 (Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM)

0.5pt e.w. Roberto Carballes Baena in the Movistar Chile Open at 40/1 (Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Dubai Duty Free Championships

• Dubai, UAE (outdoor hard)

The ATP Tour makes the short hop from Qatar to the United Arab Emirates this week with the 500-level event in Dubai attracting a strong field.

Six of the world’s top 20 are in attendance, including three of the top 10.

Many of those playing also competed in Doha last week where the courts were of a Plexicushion variety.

This week it’s onto DecoTurf, a surface which tends to play slightly quicker. However, as in Doha, conditions slow down once night falls - and they play plenty of matches in the evening.

The scheduling can therefore play a key part and while I’ve not really got a player template in mind for my potential champion, it will clearly help to have someone onside who has dealt with the challenges well in the past.

That applies to the top two seeds, Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev, who are also the top two in the market.

Medvedev is the defending champion in Dubai but will be playing for the first time in a month having taken time off following his efforts at the Australian Open where he played a series of long matches before finally succumbing to Jannik Sinner in the final.

Medvedev led that contest by two sets to love so, as I said regarding Alex Zverev last week, you have to wonder if there will be any lasting effects from that agonising defeat.

The Russian is an experienced campaigner so maybe not, but throw in the fact the Indian Wells Masters 1000 event starts next week (with Miami to follow) and this doesn’t look a great week to be getting with Medvedev at 7/4.

Rublev was the player Medvedev dethroned as champion here, beating his compatriot in last year’s final.

That strong tournament record means Rublev warrants respect at 9/2 but he’s been hit by a familiar problem of late, suffering a streak of quarter-final losses.

After bowing out of the Australian Open at the last-eight stage to Jannik Sinner, he’s lost to Alex de Minaur in Rotterdam and Jakub Mensik in Doha. After the latter defeat, Rublev withdrew from his scheduled doubles match citing a shoulder injury.

While not disastrous, those aren’t great results if you are looking for Rublev to win in a field of this quality and he starts with a tricky match against Zhizhen Zhang, who has shown some decent form of late, crushing Lorenzo Musetti last week before losing a final-set tie-break to Gael Monfils.

There are certainly alternatives and the man I like the most is the Doha champion KAREN KHACHANOV.

He’s really beginning to build some momentum this season, winning nine of his last 11 matches, the two defeats coming at the hands of eventual champion Sinner in Melbourne and Grigor Dimitrov in a final-set breaker in Marseille.

The Russian served very well in Doha, topping 80% first-serve points won in every round, and it’s worth noting that he’s now won six of his last seven tie-breaks; an impressive record.

A slightly quicker court should only help on that front.

As long-term readers will know, I often have doubts about a player’s ability to reach back-to-back finals but Khachanov should not be fatigued by last week’s effort.

He had a first-round bye, while his quarter-final ended after three games with Emil Ruusuvuori retired.

The other six sets were all won. In many ways, that looks also ideal preparation for this week.

The draw isn’t an easy one, although you wouldn’t really expect it to be at this 500 level.

Doha semi-finalist Alexei Popyrin is first up but he was one of Khachanov’s victims last week. Jiri Lehecka and Alexander Bublik – both already title-winners on this season’s tour – could follow before the semis and a possible meeting with Rublev. Interestingly, Khachanov leads that head-to-head 4-3 (3-2 at tour level and 2-1 on hardcourts).

Given the way he’s playing, 12/1 looks fair enough.

CLICK HERE to back Khachanov with Sky Bet

In the top half, I’m also going to give GAEL MONFILS another try.

I almost backed him last week but didn’t so was quite glad he ended up losing his semi-final to Mensik!

However, the French veteran did again show both his like of the Middle Eastern venues and his ability to deliver in the early part of the season.

As I’ve written on more than one occasion already in 2024, many of Monfils’ best runs come in January and February – six of his last eight ATP titles have come in these months when his notoriously frail body is fresh and not run down by the rigours of the tour.

Monfils has been to the semis here in his last two visits (2020 and 2019) so clearly it’s a venue where he’ll have some decent memories.

He starts against seed Ugo Humbert but Monfils beat his compatriot convincingly in Doha and if he manages to repeat that victory would face either Denis Shapovalov or Andy Murray, neither of whom has put back-to-back wins together for many months.

Hubert Hurkacz is also in this section of the draw but the Pole didn’t play in Doha so is coming in off the indoor swing.

All things considered, a small each-way bet at 40/1 on Monfils gets the nod.

CLICK HERE to back Monfils with Sky Bet

Abierto Mexicano Telcel

• Acapulco, Mexico (outdoor hard)

The strongest field of the week gathers on the Mexican coast where the eight seeds are all from the world’s top 15.

They are led by Alex Zverev, who certainly has the profile of a potential champion.

The court surface here is, as in Los Cabos last week, a Solflex one which tends to be pretty sluggish.

However, tournament history shows that the big servers have still been able to cause problems with Zverev joined by Nick Kyrgios, Juan Martin del Potro and Sam Querrey on the roll of honour since the tournament moved from clay to hard in 2014.

Zverev may win again but he looks a pretty shaky favourite given last week’s defeat to Jordan Thompson in Los Cabos.

He’s also potentially got to face recent Dallas champion Tommy Paul and Rotterdam runner-up Alex de Minaur prior to any final here.

Stefanos Tsitsipas is also in his half of the draw, although I’m happy to swerve both the Greek and second seed Holger Rune given their lack of form so far in 2024. Both look too short to warrant support.

If it’s a big server you want on your coupon, then Taylor Fritz is of interest.

In the bottom half with Rune, Casper Ruud and Frances Tiafoe, the American recently won in Delray Beach and has also been to the final here – and in Los Cabos – in the past, albeit without managing to lift either trophy.

However, I’m going to take a chance on a bigger price by backing a player who fits the other profile which is a proven winner on these Solflex courts.

Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer and De Minaur are all men prepared to grind things out from the baseline, using their strong defence to the full.

De Minaur was a pic of this column here at 40/1 last season and hopefully we can follow up with something similar by backing CAMERON NORRIE.

CLICK HERE to back Norrie with Sky Bet

He’s always a player on my mind in these Mexican events as he’s got a great track record in them.

The British number one was runner-up here two years ago and also made the semis when coming through in 2019. He’s also twice made the Los Cabos final, winning that event in 2021.

These are conditions which match up well with his game and another good run would be no surprise, especially after he found some form last week in Rio.

He played well en route to the semi-finals before running into the week’s surprise package, Mariano Navone, and while that defeat would have disappointed the New Zealand-born star, the week as a whole was a positive one.

The transition from clay to hard shouldn’t be too difficult for Norrie given he’s propensity for these conditions and he’s managed it before, arriving here from Rio ahead of that 2019 run to the last four.

This week, Norrie starts against Dominik Koepfer before facing either the out-of-sorts Tiafoe or Max Purcell. He could then meet Rune, although the Dane may struggle to beat Los Cabos champion Jordan Thompson if they meet in round two.

Fritz could await in the semis and while the American leads that H2H 8-6, many of the matches have been tight and one that wasn’t saw Norrie triumph for the loss of just four games on the Solflex of Los Cabos in 2021.

At 22/1, I like Norrie’s chances.

Movistar Chile Open

• Santiago, Chile (outdoor clay)

I’ve been a bit disappointed by my efforts during the South American ‘Golden Swing’ of claycourt events so far.

I always feel this is an opportunity for a big-priced winner and that theory has borne out.

However, picking out qualifiers to win is extremely difficult given the time I write these previews (usually the men in question aren’t even in the market on a Sunday afternoon). To get two such finalists in Cordoba was in some ways frustrating but I also know I’d have never picked them out.

It was a wild card who won in Buenos Aires (Facundo Diaz Acosta), while at time of writing, another qualifier, Mariano Navone, is due to contest the Rio final.

If you managed to make any sort of profit from the three events, I doff my cap to you, but I can have few regrets about not picking out those names.

This week brings one final chance with the swing concluding in Santiago.

That means we’re back up at altitude – around 700m above the sea level where many of these players have played over the past couple of weeks.

That’s a significant change and so I’m again keen to side with specialists in these conditions.

Three men stand out.

The first two – ROBERTO CARBALLES BAENA and YANNICK HANFMANN – occupy the top half of the draw where defending champion Nicolas Jarry is the top seed.

The home hope is arguably the one to beat but an opener against Federico Coria, a semi-finalist in both Cordoba and Buenos Aires, won’t be easy.

Carballes Baena might be able to take advantage in that section.

His two ATP titles have both come at a significant altitude – in Marrakech last season and Quito in 2018.

OK, form isn’t great but a kind draw should give him a chance to play himself into the friendly conditions – it’s a qualifier first up and then either Thiago Agustin Triante or another of last week’s breakthrough stars, Joao Fonseca, who won’t have had to make the 700m altitude transition too often.

Should he win those two matches, Carballes Baena may face Jarry in the quarter-finals but he leads their head-to-head 4-1.

All in all, that’s enough for me to back the Spaniard at 40s.

CLICK HERE to back Carballes Baena with Sky Bet

As for Hanfmann, his two ATP finals have both come at altitude (Kitzbuhel and Gstaad) and he’s made the quarter-finals here in the last two seasons.

His results in Santiago have been pretty solid with Coria, a seed, beaten in 2022, while 12 months ago he took down defending champion Pedro Martinez in some style before losing to eventual champion Jarry.

Hanfmann gained revenge for that loss in Rio last week, another factor which suggests he’s ready to give this Santiago challenge another good go.

Odds of 16/1 appeal to small stakes.

CLICK HERE to back Hanfmann with Sky Bet

Finally, in the bottom half, I’m siding with old favourite ALBERT RAMOS-VINOLAS.

Again, I’m relying on his altitude skills rather than current form – control of the ball is key in these conditions where the balls tend to ‘fly’ more due to the thinner air.

Ramos-Vinolas has long been a fine exponent of those skills with two of his four career titles coming at altitude and eight of his 12 ATP finals.

He’s never made the Santiago final, although he’s twice come close, reaching the semis in both 2020 and 2022.

The veteran is a real battler whose fitness isn’t in question and I believe Ramos-Vinolas will see this as a real chance for him before the tour returns to the hardcourts.

At 33/1, he’s also worth chancing in our search for a claycourt winner.

CLICK HERE to back Ramos-Vinolas with Sky Bet

First posted at 1830 GMT on 25/02/24

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