Andy Schooler’s pre-tournament tip Alex de Minaur (40/1) battled back from a set down to defeat American Tommy Paul in the final of the Abierto Mexicano Telcel in Acapulco, Mexico.
Australia's world number 22 brushed aside some early struggles to roar to a 3-6 6-4 6-1 win.
The victory marks de Minaur’s seventh ATP Tour title and his first ATP 500 crown.
Schooler wrote in his preview: "His retrieving game is well suited to the sluggish surface and he’s done fairly well so far this season.
"When last playing on outdoor hard he reached the last 16 of the Australian Open before running into Novak Djokovic on a very good day. More recently he’s been playing indoors, making the quarter-finals in Rotterdam, where he beat Andrey Rublev and Maxime Cressy before losing 7-6 in the third to Grigor Dimitrov - and Marseille.
"He’ll be happier with the sun on his back and given he’s in the same quarter as Ruud, I feel he has a strong chance of at least making the last four."
Meanwhile, Daniil Medvedev defeated defending champion Andrey Rublev in the final of the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships to win a third successive title.
Former world number one Medvedev briefly dropped out of the top 10 after an early loss at the Australian Open capped a difficult 12 months but he has responded superbly since.
The Russian claimed ATP Tour titles in Rotterdam and Doha in the last fortnight and, after ending Novak Djokovic’s unbeaten start to the season in the semi-finals in Dubai, eased to a 6-2 6-2 victory over friend and countryman Rublev.
After losing his first four professional encounters against his former junior rival, Rublev had hit back with two victories in a row.
But he was outplayed by Medvedev at the top of his game, with the 27-year-old breaking serve in the opening game of the match and easing to victory in an hour and eight minutes.
Medvedev, who heads to Indian Wells next week on a 14-match winning streak, said in an on-court interview broadcast by Amazon Prime Video: “It’s amazing because the start of the year was not perfect.
“In tennis, when you don’t win tournaments you’re always doubting no matter what happens in practice, so I was doubting a lot and now it just feels better. I’m really happy with these three weeks and looking forward to the next ones.”
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