Andy Schooler previews Wednesday’s semi-finals at the National Bank Open in Toronto where his 10/1 outright pick is still going strong.
Tennis betting tips: National Bank Open
1pt Alex Zverev to beat Karen Khachanov 2-0 at 11/10 (Sky Bet, bet365)
1pt over 12.5 games in first set of Ben Shelton v Taylor Fritz at 7/4 (bet365)
Alex Zverev v Karen Khachanov (Wednesday, 2359 BST)
I backed Zverev for a straight-sets win in the previous round only for things to go wrong.
To be fair, there was some bad luck involved – he lost the first set tie-break due to a net cord having held two set points himself. The German duly dominated the rest of the contest.
I’m prepared to go in again on the same bet, though.
Zverev is 5-2 up on the head-to-head here, having won the last three all in straight sets and been broken just once. Khachanov has failed to win more than five games in any of the trio and his last win over Zverev came back in 2019, a period when the German was really struggling with his service motion.
That’s a worrying run for Khachanov, who has undoubtedly enjoyed a strong week in Canada but he’s yet to face anyone of this quality with previous-round wins over Casper Ruud and Alex Michelsen being some pretty cushy draws in the latter stages of a Masters 1000 event.
Admittedly, Khachanov is edging the stats during this tournament, winning a higher percentage of points on both first and second serve, and breaking more often.
However, those recent meetings with Zverev, the most recent of which came in slick conditions of Cincinnati last summer, do not bode well and I think this may be a step too far.
Ben Shelton v Taylor Fritz (after SF1)
Our 10/1 outright pick Shelton is now one win away from securing a profit but, let’s be honest, it screams another semi-final loser, of which there have been many – too many – for this column in 2025.
Fritz looks a worthy favourite – he’s now won 19 of his last 22 matches – but Shelton is not without hope. Far from it.
He spoke with confidence after upsetting Alex de Minaur on Tuesday night, highlighting his improved baseline game – the forehand was firing well during that victory.
The problem here may be getting into those rally exchanges. Fritz’s serve has been excellent this week – and, indeed, beyond – with 41 holds in a row before he finally cracked against Andrey Rublev on Tuesday. He still won in straight sets, firing down 20 aces in the process.
He lost only 19% of points behind his serve when these two met previously and that was on a much slower court in Indian Wells, albeit back in 2023.
Clearly Shelton will need to improve on that front and while his game has certainly developed over the past couple of years, I do wonder if he’ll struggle on return given the fairly slick Har-Tru surface in play in Toronto.
Clearly those with an outright bet still running don’t really need to get involved in the outcome – for the record, Fritz is the 8/13 jolly – and the obvious angle here looks to be back serve dominance in some shape or form.
Bet365 offer 10/11 about under 2.5 service breaks in the match but for something bigger I prefer the 7/4 about the first set going to a tie-break.
Both men are serving well right now with Fritz holding at a rate of 94% during the first four rounds of this tournament and Shelton 90%. Fritz has only broken 15% of the time too, which suggests he too may struggle on return, dealing with Shelton’s bombs.
Posted at 1345 BST on 06/08/25
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