After making a profitable start to the ATP Finals on Sunday, Andy Schooler delivers his verdict on the opening matches in the Ivan Lendl Group.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Finals daily tips
1.25pts Daniil Medvedev to beat Flavio Cobolli 2-0 at 17/20 (William Hill, betway)
1pt Frances Tiafoe to serve most aces v Carlos Alcaraz at 27/5 (Grosvenor Sport)
Carlos Alcaraz v Frances Tiafoe (1300 GMT)
Odds-on tournament favourite Alcaraz opens his bid to win the ATP Finals for the first time on Monday afternoon.
He’s just 1/8 to begin the Ivan Lendl Group with a victory over Tiafoe, a player who will be making his debut at this event.
For anyone looking to pile into the Spaniard from the outset, I’d urge you to remember he’s been practising with knee support in recent days. Personally, I’d want to see how he is physically before getting involved with his short prices. I’d also point out that Alcaraz has lost two of his previous three opening matches at the ATP Finals.
In terms of his opponent, Tiafoe is a player who has troubled Alcaraz in the past. The second seed leads the head-to-head 2-1 but both of his wins have taken five sets, albeit the most recent came at Wimbledon 2024.
The good thing for Alcaraz is he looks like he’s finally cracked things indoors, having won titles in Paris and Vienna over the past month.
The slick conditions of Paris didn’t seem to bother him and it’s playing pretty fast in Turin again, too.
If fully fit, I doubt Alcaraz will have many problems here – Tiafoe has endured his usual post-US Open slump, winning just two of his six matches since leaving New York.
However, one angle where it may be worth getting with Tiafoe is in the aces market.
He’s out-aced Alcaraz in two of their three previous encounters and is also well ahead in terms of aces served this season – the American is averaging 6.52 per match to Alcaraz’s 4.72.
Tiafoe is capable of cranking his first serve up to 140mph and, in these conditions, that should result in a fair few aces.
Alcaraz was out-aced in three of his five matches in Turin last year, while even when conditions were slick in Paris he never managed more than eight aces in a single match.
A price of 27/5 about Tiafoe serving most aces looks too big to me and worth backing. That’s with Grosvenor Sport, who always offer a wide range of tennis markets, but the more popular bet365 still offer 9/2, which is just fine.
Daniil Medvedev v Flavio Cobolli (1930 GMT)
Readers of my outright preview will already know I’m keen on Medvedev’s chances in Turin this week.
He’s been in decent form since the US Open, winning minor titles in Almaty and Hangzhou, as well as reaching semi-finals of bigger events in Vienna, Shanghai and Beijing.
He’s a player who likes fast conditions, whereas Cobolli was brought up on the slower clay.
The Italian will have plenty of crowd support this week but he will need much more than that if he’s to progress from this group.
And the signs aren’t great.
He arrives on a 3-5 recent run, with his only top-100 win since Cincinnati in August coming against Brandon Nakashima in Lyon last month.
The last of those matches, in Vienna, also saw him retire injured with a leg muscle strain so it’s hard to know exactly how he’s going to be as he makes his ATP Finals debut.
Medvedev’s run-all-day attitude and excellent defence won’t be ideal to face if he is indeed below par physically and the Russian has won both of their previous hardcourt meetings in straight sets, breaking serve 11 times across five sets.
Admittedly, Cobolli did win their most recent encounter, on the Madrid clay earlier this year, but this is Medvedev’s domain and plenty looks to be in his favour.
Another straight-sets victory is on offer at 17/20 which looks fair enough.
Posted at 18:00 GMT on 15/11/26
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