Roland Garros
Roland Garros

Tennis betting tips Monday May 27: French Open preview and best bets

Our tennis man Andy Schooler delivers his verdict on day two of the French Open at Roland Garros.

Tennis betting tips: French Open matches

2pts Yoshihito Nishioka (+7.5) to beat Felix Auger-Aliassime on the game handicap at 4/5 (Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM)

1pt Thiago Monteiro to beat Miomir Kecmaovic at 57/50 (Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM)

1pt Matteo Arnaldi to beat Arthur Fils at 13/10 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Yoshihito Nishioka v Felix Auger-Aliassime

These two start early on Monday and there could be more early bother for Auger-Aliassime.

He’s a player who’s often struggled in the early stages of the Slams – a win-loss record of 10-9 in the first round of majors is really poor for a player who has been ranked as high as sixth in the world.

Filter that down to the clay of Roland Garros – far from his favourite surface – and it’s 1-3.

Indeed, look at his entire history at the French Open and you see a trend for struggle – of the 18 completed, only four have been settled in straight sets with FAA losing two of those.

OK, the Canadian did reach the final of the recent Madrid Open but the altitude which helped him there isn’t present in the slower Paris conditions and I’m keen to oppose him in some way.

Nishioka is a player who frustrates opponents by getting plenty back and that’s been the case against FAA in the past – their head-to-head record is tied at 3-3 overall.

Notably, the Japanese was a comfortable, straight-sets winner when these two met at Roland Garros in 2020; their other claycourt clash came in Madrid a few weeks ago when FAA won 6-4 in the final set.

I considered several markets for a bet here.

Nishioka to win a set (4/5) and over 33.5 games (10/11) both look good, but I’m going to go with the Japanese at 4/5 on the game handicap where he gets a 7.5-game start. Odds-against on the lower 6.5 line is another option.

I won’t ignore the fact that Nishioka withdrew from Lyon last week but he cited illness and that was a week ago now. Even if the problem is still around, any mid-match retirement would simply void the bet.

Thiago Monteiro v Miomir Kecmanovic

Monteiro was an impressive qualifier last week to continue a fine run on the clay.

Including qualifying matches, the Brazilian went 9-2 across the events in Madrid and Rome, defeating Stefanos Tsitsipas in the former. He also beat Kecmanovic when they met in Rome.

Having moved onto Paris for the qualifying competition, Monteiro sparkled, losing his serve only once in the three rounds.

That serve has always been a decent weapon for Monteiro when he’s on song and I’d expect it to have an impact against a player whose record against left-handers isn’t great.

Miomir Kecmanovic heads the staking plan this week
Miomir Kecmanovic in trouble?

Kecmanovic’s career win percentage against lefties is 51, whereas against all-comers it’s 56. Whittle that down to tour level and it’s 47% v 50%.

Those are significant margins and, in short, Monteiro is another outsider worth an interest.

Matteo Arnaldi v Arthur Fils

We enjoyed some success when taking on home hope Ugo Humbert on Sunday and there could be another disappointed Frenchman on day two.

Readers of my pre-season articles will know I expected plenty from Fils in 2024 but he’s largely disappointed, going just 13-13 so far this season.

Admittedly, he did win a Challenger in Bordeaux recently to gain a much-needed confidence boost but I remain unconvinced that the market is right here.

Arnaldi made the quarter-finals in Barcelona, beating Sebastian Baez before losing to Casper Ruud. He also took a set off Daniil Medvedev in Madrid.

However, it’s the head-to-head record which is the real clincher here – Arnaldi has won the three previous meetings, all of which have come in the past 13 months.

The two at tour level did come on a hardcourt, one of them this season in Miami was settled in straight sets when Fils didn’t even create a break point. The other came during qualifying on the clay of Madrid last year.

All things considered, the underdog looks worthy of support.

Posted at 1730 BST on 26/05/24

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