Andy Schooler previews the quarter-finals of the Miami Open at which his 250/1 outright pick is still running…
Tennis betting tips: Miami Open quarter-finals
1.5pts Novak Djokovic to beat Sebastian Korda 2-0 at 8/11 (General)
1pt tie-break in first set of Taylor Fritz v Matteo Berrettini at 7/4 (BoyleSports)
Francisco Cerundolo v Grigor Dimitrov (Wed)
Outright followers still have Cerundolo running at 250/1 as we head into the quarter-finals.
That’s a good position to be in but there are still two more matches to win to secure a payout and, sadly, Novak Djokovic is still on this side of the draw.
However, first up Cerundolo must negotiate this tie, one for which he is a slight underdog. He certainly has a decent chance.
After taking down Casper Ruud is pretty brutal fashion on Tuesday, the Argentine spoke about “feeling really good” and being “super confident” on the Laykold courts of Miami on which he’s previously performed well.
He played a pretty aggressive game against Ruud and this could well be a good watch if that approach is repeated, with both men likely to come forward when given the opportunity.
Dimitrov has spent much of 2025 nursing injury problems but he has been fit and firing so far at this tournament and in the last round he was too good for Brandon Nakashima, whose poor return game was exposed – Dimitrov didn’t have to face a break point in his straight-sets success. This should be a tougher test though.
The Bulgarian did win the pair’s only previous meeting but that came on the grass of Queen’s Club in 2023 so I’m not sure that’s massively relevant here.
I’m tempted by Cerundolo at odds-against, although given that outright interest there’s that familiar nagging voice in my head of ‘I don’t want to lose twice’.
Maybe back him if you aren’t already on at the 250s.
Sebastian Korda v Novak Djokovic (Wed)
Djokovic is yet to lose a set in Miami and looked in ominous form on Tuesday as he dismantled Lorenzo Musetti for the loss of just four games.
That was very much a warning sign for the rest of the field and I doubt Korda will be able to live with the Serb if he turns up in that mood again.
The other issue here is that Korda needed treatment on his wrist/lower arm during his three-set win over Gael Monfils, who which stretched out over most of the day session due to a rain delay.
You have to wonder if that will affect him in this match and if it does, you have to fear for his chances.
Djokovic has been better than I expected at this event and now looks the time to side with him.
A straight-sets victory at 8/11 looks a fair bet.
Taylor Fritz v Matteo Berrettini (Thu)
Nakashima couldn’t handle the pressure in both sets against Dimitrov on Tuesday and that duly downed our tie-break bet.
Still, I’m going to have another go with a similar approach here.
As Cerundolo pointed out in his post-match comments on Tuesday, the courts are playing pretty quick and that should only aid these two big servers, who already have a long track record of producing breakers.
Indeed, Berrettini has played one in nine of his 15 matches in 2025 but it is the head-to-head which really makes interesting reading here.
Three of the four matches they’ve played – all of which have been on a hardcourt – have featured at least one tie-break. Three of their last five sets have gone the distance.
The series has actually been dominated by Fritz – he’s won all four with Berrettini claiming just one of the nine sets.
The American, broken only once in three rounds so far, will have his backers at 8/13 for the win and 6/4 for a straight-sets victory, but my preference is to back a first-set tie-break.
With Fritz serving well and having not faced a break point against Berrettini in their last two meetings, I think this will likely boil down to how well the Italian serves.
He’s done well on that front in recent months and is currently at 91% holds for the season, a figure which puts him second on tour behind Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard.
This isn’t bet of the year but 7/4 is worth a try.
Posted at 1030 GMT on 26/03/25
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