All of the last-16 matches in the ATP Miami Open take place on Wednesday and, having bounced back in the last round, Andy Schooler has bets in two of them.
Tennis betting tips: Miami Open matches
1pt Alex Zverev to beat Arthur Fils 2-0 at 11/10 (bet365)
1pt tie-break in Grigor Dimitrov v Brandon Nakashima at evens (BoyleSports)
Alex Zverev v Arthur Fils (0030 GMT, Wed)
I’ve got Fils among my outright tips and watched him last night against Frances Tiafoe.
Several hours on and I’m still not sure how he managed to win that match.
Having blown two match points at 5-4 in the second set before losing three games in a row, it was the most obvious thing in the world when he was broken to fall 2-1 down in the third.
Fils appeared to be struggling physically as the match headed towards three hours and I had very much chalked this up as yet another loser from match-point up.
But Tiafoe let him off the hook. Seemingly only needing to extend the rallies, he instead gave Fils the chance to adopt hit-and-hope tactics and the winners flew off his racquet as his bid to keep the points short worked to perfection.
However, there’s no getting away from the notion that Fils was physically shot. It’s also hard to imagine his tactics winning the day too often in that situation.
Zverev isn’t an opponent he needs to face just 24 hours later.
His defence may not be the very best on tour but it is strong and he won’t be fazed by Fils’ shot-making. After all, he leads their head-to-head 3-1 with the Frenchman’s only win coming on clay.
Zverev has barely put a foot wrong in Miami so far, winning twice in straight sets and only dropping serve once in victories over Jacob Fearnley and Jordan Thompson.
Of course, the quality rises here with a fellow seed faced for the first time but, as pointed out, Fils’ preparation for this contest hasn’t been ideal.
I think the first set will be key here and if Zverev wins it, I’d very much expect him to go on to record another straight-sets victory.
At odds-against, 2-0 is the bet for me.
Grigor Dimitrov v Brandon Nakashima (1500 GMT)
These may not be Reilly Opelka-style giants, but the fact is we’ve got two of the tour’s best servers on show here.
Both were in the top seven for service games won in 2024, with Dimitrov top on the first-serve points won metric.
Admittedly, he’s had his injury issues so far this season but he performed well to earn us a winner when he faced Karen Khachanov in the last round, the first set of that match going to a breaker.
In his eight completed matches this season, Dimitrov has played a tie-break in four of them, while Nakashima’s stats are even better with 10 of his 16 such matches seeing a set go over 12.5 games. His return game is pretty weak.
The pair’s only previous hardcourt meeting, won by Nakashima at the 2022 US Open, also saw a tie-break and so this is a bet I’m happy to pursue at even money.
Posted at 1010 GMT on 25/03/25
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