Andy Schooler previews the quarter-finals of the Shanghai Rolex Masters, which take place across Thursday and Friday.
Tennis tips: Shanghai Masters
0.75pt Alex de Minaur to beat Alex Zverev at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Daniil Medvedev (-2.5) to beat Tommy Paul at 4/5 (General)
Alex Zverev v Alex de Minaur (Thu)
It was pretty gutting to see 11/4 pick Alexander Bublik edged out by Zverev in the previous round – the Kazakh had three set-points in the opener and led the decider by a break only to lose both sets on a tie-break.
Still, I think my assessment that Zverev is not at the top of his game right now was a fair one, while he clearly struggling a little with his ankle against Bublik. After the match, he admitted the joint was “playing up”, while he also confirmed my theory that he’s a little jaded, highlighting the amount of tennis he’s played of late – the German has barely had a break since the start of the US Open in late August.
That lengthy battle with Bublik – and another three-setter in the previous round against Quentin Halys – will have hardly helped on that front, while the fact that De Minaur is next will be something of a concern.
The Australian is a run-all-day merchant with a great defence and at the very least I’d expect him to make Zverev work hard in this one. If fatigue is an issue for the soon-to-be world number one, De Minaur is likely to expose it.
The head-to-head shows Zverev up 8-4 overall, although there’s plenty of hope for the underdog here as he’s won four of their last six hardcourt meetings. The most recent of those was just a few weeks ago at the Laver Cup in London.
Conditions will be quicker here in Shanghai which theoretically should play into Zverev’s hands.
However, he isn’t the only one serving well right now. De Minaur is yet to lose his own deal in this tournament having posted straight-sets victories over Rei Sakamoto and Karen Khachanov. Notably, he’s managed to win more than 61% of second-serve points in both matches.
Given all these circumstances, I feel De Minaur is worth chancing here in the match betting at 7/4.
Daniil Medvedev v Tommy Paul (Fri)
Medvedev has done little wrong in his past two matches and he saw off the in-form Stefanos Tsitsipas with something to spare on Wednesday.
It’s encouraging for those of us who have backed the Russian in the outright market – with Carlos Alcaraz already eliminated from the bottom half of the draw, Medvedev has a good shot at making the final.
However, the job is far from done and Paul has also been looking good in Shanghai where he is yet to lose a set, his victims including defending champion Valentin Cacherot and Alcaraz’s conqueror, Zizou Bergs.
This is another step up for the American though and his record against Medvedev isn’t good.
He trails 4-1 with Medvedev having won all three hardcourt encounters, the most recent of which was something of a blow-out – 6-4 6-0 in Indian Wells last season.
Again, it will be faster here but that’s good news for Medvedev, who has been one of the most vocal critics of sluggish courts and balls in recent years.
Slick hardcourts, like those on offer here, are ideal for a man with a big first serve and great counter-attacking game.
I suspect Paul will try to attack the second serve as much as he can but the Medvedev defence – and his ability to turn that into attack – may well prove too tough for the American to overcome.
He’s certainly struggled regularly to contain Medvedev in the past and I’d expect the Russian to get the job done and reach the semis for the second year running.
He’s a best price of 8/15 to do that, although I think the handicap market can be won at a bigger price. Medvedev gives up 2.5 games here but that can be overcome.
Posted 09:00 BST on 15/10/2026
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