Alexander Bublik

Tennis betting tips: Best bets for the fourth round of the Shanghai Masters

Tennis

Tue October 13, 2026 · 11h ago

After landing a 19/10 winner in round three, Andy Schooler returns to preview the last-16 action at the Rolex Shanghai Masters.

Tennis tips: Shanghai Masters fourth round best bets

0.75pt Alexander Bublik to beat Alex Zverev at 11/4 (bet365)

0.75pt Stefanos Tsitsipas to serve most aces v Daniil Medvedev at 4/1 (bet365)

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Alex Zverev v Alexander Bulbik (Tue)

These are good conditions for Bublik’s big-serving, big-hitting game – he should be able to get the ball whizzing past Zverev off the slick court, at least at times.

Notably, Bublik leads their head-to-head record 3-1 with all three of his wins coming in conditions to suit – two were indoors and the other on grass.

And while it makes sense that Bublik’s big serve becomes even more threatening when things play fast – he’s served 40 aces in his two matches so far in Shanghai and faced just one break point – it’s interesting that he’s managed to have great success on return in those previous contests with Zverev.

Across the four-match series, Bublik has actually broken in 33% of Zverev’s service games. It would appear he’s had something of a read on the Zverev serve and his aggressive approach has reaped rewards.

Admittedly, the pair’s last meeting was in 2023 and Zverev is a better player now, although I feel his improvement is largely a mental one, rather than a big change in terms of his shot-making. The German certainly has greater belief these days and his results show that.

Alexander Zverev

However, he is far from infallible. Since winning the US Open, Zverev has lost to Alex de Minaur and Novak Djokovic, while Quentin Halys gave him a bit of a scare in the last round here.

In addition, the 29-year-old has arguably lost a bit of motivation following Carlos Alcaraz’s shock exit at the hands of Zizou Bergs on Monday.

That loss, coupled with Jannik Sinner’s injury, has ensured Zverev will finish the year as world number one – remarkable given he is yet to spend a single day at the top of the rankings.

Bublik is a player who loves the big stage and I’m sure he’s going to go for broke here and we’ve seen in the past that when he’s in the grove, he’s capable of beating anyone.

Having done it several times before against this opponent, I think he’s worth a poke at 5/2 or bigger.

Daniil Medvedev v Stefanos Tsitsipas (Wed)

Alcaraz’s defeat was good news for our outright pick Medvedev, who is now the favourite to reach the final from the bottom half of the draw.

Still, there’s plenty of work to do, starting with this clash with old rival Tsitsipas – the pair don’t really get on and while Medvedev leads 10-5 across their previous meetings, it’s 5-5 in the last recent 10.

Tsitsipas showed his improved form when helping this column land a 19/10 winner in the last round when defeating Taylor Fritz and he’s a similar price here. That looks sure to tempt some.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

However, I’d expect Medvedev to get more back – and in better positions – than the American, who did look to be heading to victory when up a set and 5-5.

In particular, I’d expect the Russian to be able to send more balls to the Tsitsipas backhand and when the Greek runs round it to crush the forehand, Medvedev’s counter-attacking skills should be able to divert the ball into the open court that Tsitsipas inevitably leaves.

The upset wouldn’t be a huge surprise but I’m not ready to go against my outright pick just yet and, any way, there is another value bet which could deliver at a big price.

You can get 4/1 about Tsitsipas serving most aces in this one and that simply looks too big given he’s managed it in four of the pair’s last six matches.

I do suspect the quick conditions increase Medvedev’s chances – he comfortably won the ace count when these two played in Shanghai two years ago – but that looks to have been factored into the market too much.

Posted 17:00 BST on 12/10/2026