Tennis betting tips: Australian Open day 15 best bets Sunday January 28
Andy Schooler previews Sunday’s Australian Open men’s singles final between Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev.
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open
1.25pts over 37.5 games in Jannik Sinner v Daniil Medvedev at 4/5 (William Hill)
0.75pt Daniil Medvedev to win at 23/10 (William Hill, betway, LiveScoreBet)
Jannik Sinner v Daniil Medvedev
I’m a bit torn here.
I fancied Sinner from the start and our 13/2 on him winning the title is now 4/11 with pretty much everything falling into place.
The Italian has dropped just the one set en route to the final, that coming in his historic upset of Novak Djokovic in Friday’s semi-finals. It was the 10-time champion’s first loss in 34 Australian Open matches and Sinner’s 10th victory in his last 11 matches against top-five opposition.
That contrasts wildly with Medvedev’s route to this stage.
He’s spent almost six hours more on court and could set new records for both time spent and sets played to win a Grand Slam title.
“Probably, honestly, it's better to be in the final winning three-set, four-set matches,” said the Russian, looking ahead to the final. “That's the better way physically. But it is what it is, and I'm proud and looking forward to the final to give my 100 per cent again.”
The potential for fatigue has undoubtedly played its part in how the market is priced up but my initial reaction to see Medvedev around the 9/4 mark was that he’s too big.
The Russian is one of the fittest players on the tour and has shown his powers of recovery time and again, while I keep remembering how Novak Djokovic won five and six-hour matches here en route to the 2012 title.
While Sinner will likely bring a physical edge to the court, Medvedev will hold other advantages.
Most notable is the experience factor. This will be the Russian’s sixth Grand Slam final and he’s won one before – at the 2021 US Open. Sinner, on the other hand, will be playing in his first such match; until you’ve been there, you never know how you’ll react.
Another is the head-to-head record, which Medvedev leads 6-3.
However, Sinner has admittedly started to turn that around. Last autumn, he won three in a row with a more attacking brand of tennis shown in a bid to break through Medvedev’s renowned defence. It worked, although each match was close – two went to a final set and the other was decided in two tie-breaks with no breaks of serve.
Four of eight sets last autumn were decided in a tie-break so 4/6 about another here has potential for the short-odds backers or those using ‘bet builder’ tools.
That also shows the potential for a high number of games and that’s an angle I’m ready to explore.
All nine previous meetings have been played in the best-of-three format and five of them have gone to a third set.
With this being best of five, that history suggests there’s a decent chance this isn’t settled in straight sets and if that’s the case, then I’d expect over 37.5 games to land.
Medvedev’s battling qualities have been very much on show and even if he falls behind, expect him to try different things in a bid to find solutions – as he managed to do against Alex Zverev in their semi-final.
He got so much back in that contest and while Sinner will likely enjoy some success coming in, Medvedev’s ability to consistency hit deep will mean the Italian won’t always be able to do that.
Look, Sinner is the right favourite and I’m happy with he outright position.
But taking this match in isolation, I do feel Medvedev’s odds are too big with not as much between the pair as the prices suggest.
With that in mind, a small bet on the Russian is in order.
Posted at 1240 GMT on 27/01/24
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org