Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour preview and best bets
Wimbledon is over but there’s no rest for tennis. Andy Schooler previews this week’s ATP events in Newport, Gstaad and Bastad with a 50/1 shot among his picks.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
1pt e.w. Mackenzie McDonald in the Infosys Hall of Fame Open at 10/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt e.w. Albert Ramos-Vinolas at the EFG Swiss Open at 25/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Betfred)
0.5pt e.w. Arthur Fils at the EFG Swiss Open at 50/1 (Betfred)
0.5pt e.w. Pedro Cachin at the EFG Swiss Open at 25/1 (Betfred)
1pt win Francisco Cerundolo in the Nordea Open at 7/1 (bet365, BetVictor)
Infosys Hall of Fame Open
- Newport, USA (outdoor grass)
Wimbledon may be over but there’s still one week of the grasscourt season to go.
This tournament receives little mainstream coverage but it is a chance for those who enjoy the surface to give it one last go.
Last season Maxime Cressy certainly managed to build on a good grasscourt season in Europe, claiming the title having also impressed in Eastbourne.
In a field featuring just one member of the world’s top 30 – Tommy Paul – it’s definitely worth looking for players coming here in good form on the surface.
In bottom half, Jordan Thompson and Adrian Mannarino both fit the mould – Thompson finished runner-up in Den Bosch prior to Wimbledon, while Mannarino was a finalist in Mallorca and also beat Taylor Fritz at Queen’s.
Both hold decent claims here but my concern is that they are both in the same quarter and respective prices of 13/2 and 6/1 therefore make less appeal than they otherwise might have done.
The head-to-head has Mannarino 4-2 up (3-1 on grass) but he lost the pair’s most recent clash which came in that Den Bosch tournament just a few weeks ago. It was tight, the Australian winning in three sets.
It’s hard to pick between them and with Liam Broady, who beat Casper Ruud en route to the third round of Wimbledon, an interesting floater in this quarter too, I’m inclined to look elsewhere.
Maybe some will be prepared to ride with the returning Kevin Anderson (28/1), who is coming out of retirement at an event he won two years ago.
His serve was always a massive part of his game on grass so I’d expect him to be competitive but winning at tour level after more than a year away is a big ask.
Therefore, I’m turning to the top half where MACKENZIE McDONALD looks a decent pick at 10/1.
The American has beaten Fritz and Borna Coric during the current grasscourt campaign, making the semis in Eastbourne and the last eight in Den Bosch.
He’s in Cressy’s quarter here but the reigning champion is in miserable form having won just one of five matches on grass this summer.
Throw in a first-round bye as fourth seed and this looks a good draw for the 28-year-old, who has always enjoyed his best results on a quicker court.
Top seed Paul could await in the semis but while he made the final in Eastbourne, he’s beaten very little in terms of quality on grass this season.
I’m therefore happy to take McDonald at 10/1 – almost four times the price of his compatriot.
EFG Swiss Open Gstaad
- Gstaad, Switzerland (outdoor clay)
The ATP Tour also returns to the clay this week and, significantly, altitude.
Gstaad is more than 1,000m above sea level which presents a different challenge to the players.
The balls fly through the thin air faster than they would at a lower altitude and that’s potentially a help to the big servers.
But the power-hitters must also be able to control the ball – it’s not difficult to overhit in these conditions.
Long-term readers will know I’ve long been keen on altitude specialists at events such as this and many of you won’t be surprised by my first selection, who has been picked out on several occasions in the past. His name is ALBERT RAMOS-VINOLAS.
He very much fits the description of altitude specialist.
The veteran Spaniard has won four ATP titles in his career, with two of them coming at altitude, the most recent last season in Cordoba.
And of his 11 final appearances, seven have come at a significant height above sea level.
This season has admitted not been the best – Ramos-Vinolas arrives with a losing record on the main tour – but his best result came in Cordoba (semi-finals).
It’s also notable that he enjoyed this time of the season 12 months ago when making the last four both here and in Kitzbuhel.
As well as that semi-final run, Ramos-Vinolas won here in 2019, so he knows what’s required.
The seeds in his section of the draw are Mikael Ymer (little to fear there) and Lorenzo Sonego, who is among the favourites but looks too short at a best of 6/1.
The pair could meet in round two and I’d give Ramos-Vinolas, who returned to the clay last week in Italy, a good chance of winning that battle in these conditions.
At 25/1, he looks worth a punt.
I also like the 50/1 on offer about ARTHUR FILS in this half of the draw.
The Frenchman will be happy to be back on clay having claimed his maiden ATP title on this surface in Lyon just prior to the French Open.
There’s a bit of altitude in Lyon (although this is much higher) and he certainly used the conditions well that week, getting his big serve firing and proving difficult to break.
That should be the case again this week if he finds his groove.
It’s worth noting that the teenager enjoyed good results in some quicker conditions earlier in the season, making the semis indoors in both Marseille and Montpellier.
Of course, it’s different here but this is going to be a lot faster than most claycourt events and, to me, 50/1 is a bit disrespectful about his chances.
Finally in the top half, PEDRO CACHIN looks capable of potentially causing an upset.
The Argentine could well be the first opponent for Roberto Bautista Agut and that would be an awkward one for the top seed.
Cachin finished runner-up at this spring’s Challenger event in Madrid, which is up at around 700m, before beating both Frances Tiafoe and Francisco Cerundolo at the Masters 1000 tournament held there a few weeks later.
He also defeated Dominic Thiem at Roland Garros and will probably have taken some heart from his first-round loss to Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon. He forced a tie-break in the third set and was far from disgraced.
In a week when the favourites make little appeal, 25/1 about Cachin is worth a try.
Nordea Open
- Bastad, Sweden (outdoor clay)
Over in Bastad, a tournament often voted by the players as one of their favourites, they are down at sea level.
Perhaps word has got round about this event as this year, despite its post-Wimbledon slot in the calendar, it’s attracted four of the world’s top 20, plus Alex Zverev.
It’s certainly a competitive-looking field, although you have to at least ask whether the motivation levels will be high from the likes of Andrey Rublev – a quarter-finalist in SW19 just a few days ago - and Zverev.
Of the big names, Casper Ruud looks a worthy favourite.
He’s a player who has a proven track record of delivering in this part of the season.
He won here in 2021 – one of three titles in as many weeks – while he was the champion in Gstaad last season.
This year hasn’t been his greatest but he’s still gone 17-6 on his favoured claycourts, hitting form at the right time when reaching the final of the French Open.
It wasn’t a surprise to see him struggle on the grass and neither was it a shock to see him immediately hit the clay following his Wimbledon exit at the hands of Liam Broady.
Having also got the better of the draw – the bottom half looks tougher – I wouldn’t put anyone off backing the top seed at 13/5.
Yet the strength of the field, which seeds Tomas Etcheberry and Lorenzo Musetti as the main threats in his half, means the price is hardly screaming value and I’m tempted to try a player at a much bigger price in the bottom section.
FRANCISCO CERUNDOLO has enjoyed a fine season and he arrives here having won 16 of his last 20 matches on the ATP Tour.
That run includes clay wins over Ruud, Jannik Sinner, Cam Norrie and Taylor Fritz so it’s fair to suggest he’s capable of living with the higher-ranked players in this field.
One of the defeats came in the Lyon final when this column has tipped him up but with the Argentine arriving here in fine fettle having won the Eastbourne title on grass, I’m prepared to give him another go at 7/1.
One other player worth a mention is Daniel Galan.
Just after Wimbledon I always like to take a look at players who might be able to build on a good performance on the grass.
Galan caught the eye at the All England Club with a run to the last 16 during which his serve proved difficult to break.
Now back on his more natural surface, I feel Galan could use that confidence to produce some good results.
The Colombian is out at 50/1 in the oputright betting which might be worth some small change.
However, having already picked out a player in this section of the draw, the better approach may be to get with him on the match-betting front in the early rounds – he could well prove a tricky foe for Zverev in round two.
Posted at 1800 BST on 16/06/23
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