Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour preview and best bets for Hamburg, Umag and Atlanta

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

0.5pt e.w. Juan Pablo Varillas in the Hamburg European Open at 50/1 (bet365, William Hill, Betfred)

1pt win Sebastian Ofner in the Plava Laguna Croatia Open Umag at 10/1 (BoyleSports)

0.5pt e.w. Fabian Marozsan in the Plava Laguna Croatia Open Umag at 20/1 (Sky Bet, BetVictor, BoyleSports)

0.5pt e.w. Federico Coria in the Plava Laguna Croatia Open Umag at 33/1 (bet365, BetVictor, BoyleSports)

1pt e.w. John Isner in the Atlanta Open at 12/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Brandon Nakashima in the Atlanta Open at 16/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Hamburg European Open

• Hamburg, Germany (outdoor clay)

This week’s big tournament is the 500-level event in Hamburg which has attracted five of the world’s top 20.

That quintet includes all four semi-finalists from Bastad on Saturday, while the man crowned champion in Gstaad on Sunday – our 25/1 selection Pedro Cachin – is also here. Well, at least his name was still on the drawsheet at time of writing.

And that’s a nod to a conundrum for punters this week – how big a part will fatigue play?

Plenty of the market principals have tennis in their legs – the top two seeds, Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev, head straight to Germany having played in the Bastad final on Sunday.

This is the more prestigious title so you’d imagine that motivation levels won’t be a problem for that pair but there are no byes this week so to win the title it looks like either man will need to win five matches in as many days which could be tricky after their Swedish exploits.

Clearly both do have a good chance of winning here.

Bastad winner Rublev has enjoyed plenty of success at this level in the past, including here in Hamburg in 2020 when he won the title (albeit that was later in the season due to the COVID interruption).

Ruud, however, is yet to go beyond the semis at this venue.

The Norwegian does look to have had the better of the draw though – the seeds in his half are Alex Zverev, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Miomir Kecmanovic. Lorenzo Musetti and Francisco Cerundolo – the players who made up those semis in Bastad – are in the bottom half.

In that top half, perhaps some will be prepared to go in again with Cachin but that’s not a bet for me.

The conditions here are considerably different from up in the Swiss Alps where the balls tend to fly through the air much more easily.

Down at sea level, it will take a bit of adapting and Cachin will be lucky to get 48 hours' preparation in the German city before his opener.

While keen to try to find a big-priced alternative in the section, I’m struggling.

I did consider Sebastian Baez, a strong claycourter, who is Ruud’s opening opponent.

He did lose in the opening round in Bastad last week but only on a final-set tie-break to Federico Coria.

The main thing that put me off was the fact he took just three games off Ruud when they met in Estoril in April – turning that around against a player who played well enough to reach a final last week looks a big ask.

Instead, my one bet in this tournament will be a big-priced play in the bottom half.

Yes, it’s most likely one of Rublev, Musetti and Cerundolo will make the final here but don’t discount JUAN PABLO VARILLAS.

The Peruvian played some good stuff in Gstaad last week and a quarter-final exit may well work in his favour this week given it has allowed him extra time (than those who went further in Switzerland) to prepare in the different conditions.

His best result of the season came on the slow courts of in Buenos Aires in February where he made the last four and, significantly, beat Musetti. The pair could meet in the second round this week which would be awkward for the Italian.

Since then, Varillas has also been to the last 16 of the French Open where he defeated both Roberto Bautista Agut and Hubert Hurkacz.

Layers prepared to chalk him up at 50/1 look to be taking something of a risk to me and, in what doesn’t look the greatest betting heat, a small-stakes punt seems worth a try.

Plava Laguna Croatia Open Umag

• Umag, Croatia (outdoor clay)

It’s often the case that the tournaments with no big names offer the best value and Umag slots nicely into that bracket.

There are only two top-50 players in this field, making it one of the weakest events on the ATP Tour in 2023.

And neither of those make great appeal at the top of the market.

Top seed Jiri Lehecka was last seen shaking hands early at Wimbledon where his movement was affected by severe blisters on his foot so we can’t be sure what his fitness is like coming in here.

In any case, he went only 5-5 at tour level during the claycourt season prior to Roland Garros; I certainly don’t feel this is his best surface.

At the other end of the draw is Lorenzo Sonego, again a player who probably would like a faster surface than this slow clay – remember they are down at sea level here and play most matches at night when the temperatures are lower.

Having played up in Swiss Alps last week at significant altitude (where he lost his first match to our successful pick, Albert Ramos-Vinolas), Sonego is one of several players who will need to adapt to the vastly different conditions.

The Italian did beat Andrey Rublev at the French Open but there are players I prefer at better prices than Sonego.

In his quarter, I actually feel FABIAN MAROZSAN could make hay.

• CLICK HERE to back Marozsan with Sky Bet

The man whose name shot to prominence when he beat Carlos Alcaraz earlier this season has been racking up the wins on the Challenger Tour in recent weeks and could well be ready to take that onto tour level, particularly given the relatively weak line-up this week.

The Hungarian won a claycourt Challenger in Perugia last month and last week was back in the semis in Trieste, another seaside venue where the slow conditions and potential for wind should have set him up nicely for this event.

He starts against Juan Manuel Cerundolo, a player who has done little of late, with the winner due to face Ramos-Vinolas or Jaume Munar.

However, both of those men were involved in the latter stages in Gstaad so have little time to get used to the new conditions – they’ll need to be striking the ball harder here than in Gstaad where the thin air means less power is required.

Sonego could follow and I reckon that’s a pretty decent draw.

Of course, Marozsan will need to keep up his good form and maybe take it up a level but, as already pointed out, this tournament doesn’t look a great deal stronger than some Challengers so I’m happy to play at 20/1.

In this half, I also like FEDERICO CORIA at 33/1.

• CLICK HERE to back Coria with Sky Bet

The Argentine claimed a notable win against Sebastian Baez last week en route to the quarter-finals in Bastad, a much-needed upturn.

Again, that’s a seaside resort with conditions not dissimilar to Umag.

Despite a tough season, Coria has already been to an ATP final this year – in Cordoba back in February – and he looks a bit big to me at the odds, especially when you consider his draw.

First-round foe Marc-Andrea Huesler has been disappointing for some time now, while Stan Wawrinka would follow.

However, the Swiss lost in round two in Gstaad and makes little appeal at 7/1 in the outright betting.

Coria is more than capable of winning that match, in my opinion, and a small-stakes bet is advised.

My one in the top half is SEBASTIAN OFNER.

• CLICK HERE to back Ofner with Sky Bet

This looks a very winnable section of the draw with Lehecka’s foibles already written about.

Marin Cilic returns after months out injured and surely can't be expected to win first up, while Dominic Thiem is still being priced up on past reputation.

Perhaps Matteo Arnaldi, who pushed Musetti hard in Bastad last week, can capitalise but I prefer Ofner.

The Austrian has a first-round bye so only needs to win three matches to get to the final.

And that bye comes in a very weak-looking quarter which features Christopher O’Connell, hardly renowned for his claycourt prowess, as the other seed, plus two local wild cards.

Ofner played well last week in Bastad, making the quarter-finals where defeat to Casper Ruud was anything but a disgrace.

Tomas Etcheverry and Bernabe Zapata Miralles were two decent clay sorts beaten in Sweden and that sort of form can reap rewards in this field.

Atlanta Open

• Atlanta, USA (outdoor hard)

The road to the US Open begins on the hardcourts of Atlanta this week and a decent field has gathered in Georgia.

It’s led by Taylor Fritz, although I’m not interested in backing the 100/30 favourite.

It’s been several months since we’ve seen anything like Fritz’s best tennis with some injury issues having affected the American.

He’s done OK here in the past but nothing more – his 9-5 record having brought last one final appearance (and he lost that match).

Doubtless Fritz will be keen to start afresh on the hardcourts but that’s easier said than done and the price just looks too short in a field of this calibre.

Defending champion Alex de Minaur arguably holds better claims.

He’s been in better form of late and has a strong tournament record, winning on each of his last two visits.

The Aussie didn’t have to face break point during his 2019 triumph which is a nod to the conditions.

It’s usually stiflingly hot which keeps conditions fast, something which has traditionally favoured the big servers here.

The biggest of the lot is JOHN ISNER and he has a fabulous record here, winning six times and reaching three more finals.

• CLICK HERE to back Isner with Sky Bet

The veteran American’s best days are surely behind him but a return to his homeland produced immediate results last week in Newport, as it has done so often during his career.

Isner banged down 67 aces in four matches in Rhode Island as he reached the semi-finals and history shows it’s been tough to break that sledgehammer serve at the Atlantic Station venue over the years.

His serve has been broken only 31 times in 43 matches in Atlanta (it’s worth pointing out that eight of those were at a different venue to the current one). Twenty of them have seen Isner hold throughout.

In tie-breaks, he’s 25-14 at the tournament which is 4% up on his career win-loss average in breakers.

Those are strong stats Isner is bringing with him and it’s worth noting that he’s only here on a special exemption having made the semis in Newport.

The fact he originally didn’t enter but has now accepted suggests to me he fancies his chances at a venue he’s enjoyed huge success at.

Given the upturn he saw in Newport, I’m prepared to take a chance on Big John in the top half at 12/1.

On the opposite side of the draw, Christopher Eubanks makes his first appearance since that quarter-final run at Wimbledon but, unsurprisingly, the bookies are taking no chances on the man who made many headlines in SW19.

OK, conditions here should suit his aggressive game which is kicked off by a big serve but 5/1 is too skinny for me.

The player I prefer at more than three times the price is BRANDON NAKASHIMA.

• CLICK HERE to back Nakashima with Sky Bet

Like Isner and so many of the Americans, Nakashima regularly produces his best results on home soil.

All three of his ATP finals have come during this summer hardcourt swing and one of those appearances came right here in 2021.

Again like Isner, Nakashima is a player who tends to hold onto his serve well in quick conditions, although his return game isn’t the greatest.

Still, he owns a decent tie-break record, winning 65% of them during his career to date, and that could work in his favour here.

Yes, Nakashima will need to improve his form but the change of surface should boost him on that front.

He’s likely to face Eubanks in round two and I’d expect that match to be serve dominated, maybe featuring a couple of tie-breaks.

Nakashima can edge that and challenge for a place in the final at 16/1.

Posted at 1645 BST on 23/07/23

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