Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour preview and best bets for Dubai, Acapulco and Santiago

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1.5pts e.w. Andrey Rublev in the Dubai Duty Free Championships at 12/1 (General)

1pt win Sebastian Baez in the BCI Seguros Chile Open at 15/2 (BoyleSports)

0.5pt e.w. Yannick Hanfmann in the BCI Seguros Chile Open at 25/1 (BetVictor)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Dubai Duty Free Championships

• Dubai, UAE (outdoor hard)

Neither Carlos Alcaraz nor Jannik Sinner has made the short hop from Doha to Dubai which means we have a much different-looking market this week.

While the Big Two took up a huge percentage of the book for that Qatar Open (Alcaraz duly winning it), here we have 9/2 the field – and it even without the biggest names, it’s a very strong one.

The eight seeds all come from the world’s top 22 with Felix Auger-Aliassime leading them all.

I guess it’s understandable that the Canadian is the favourite. He arrives here having made back-to-back finals in Europe, winning in Montpellier, while he was also the runner-up in Dubai 12 months ago.

Yet I still hold reservations about backing FAA at a short price on outdoor hardcourts.

Those European finals both came indoors which is very much Auger-Aliassime’s domain.

Eight of his nine ATP titles have come with a roof over his head and just one on outdoor hard.

Admittedly, he’s fairly well drawn but a potential quarter-final against either Jiri Lehecka or Doha runner-up Arthur Fils (the pair meet in round one) looks awkward, while Karen Khachanov is a player who has troubled FAA in the past, winning two of their four meetings.

The Russian played well last week, winning a set off eventual champion Alcaraz, and could face Auger-Aliassime in the semis.

I was tempted to side with Khachanov, who will surely be looking to build on that impressive display against Alcaraz following a slow start to the season.

He lives in Dubai so will know the conditions well, although it has to be said he’s not made that knowledge pay here in the past as he holds a 7-9 win-loss record at the venue and has only ever won back-to-back matches once. That’s rather off-putting.

Instead, I’m putting my money on a player with a much better track record here and that’s ANDREY RUBLEV.

He’s made the semis in four of the last five years, winning the title in 2022 and finishing runner-up in 2023. As a result, he holds a fine 17-5 record in Dubai.

Rublev has often played well in the Middle East and he extended his strong Doha record last week when making the semi-finals in Qatar.

Alcaraz eventually proved too good, winning 7-6 6-4, but Rublev created 13 break points in that contest. On serve, he went unbroken in two of his four matches, so he’ll have taken plenty of positives from his week in Doha, where he is now 19-6.

There are only two players seeded higher in the bottom half of the draw and both look opposable.

In the third quarter, Jack Draper returns to the ATP Tour for the first time since last summer.

While he did play a Davis Cup rubber against Norway’s Viktor Durasovic earlier this month, winning easily, this will be a much tougher test and I’m very surprised the Briton is a shorter price than Rublev in the outright betting.

This is someone who has played just two matches since Wimbledon so he’s going to need to find a high level pretty much straight away if he’s to win (or make the final) of a 500 event like this.

The second seed is Alexander Bublik, who looked weary in a 6-1 6-2 loss to Auger-Aliassime in Rotterdam and then withdrew from Doha.

Perhaps the rest will have done the 2024 runner-up good but I’m happy to leave the Kazakh alone given his price.

Abierto Mexicano Telcel

• Acapulco, Mexico (outdoor hard)

The top two seeds are the two betting favourites and with both men having good records at this tournament, I’m finding this tournament a tough one in which to find much value.

Alex Zverev won here in 2021 and was runner-up in 2019, while Alex de Minaur was the champion in both 2024 and 2023.

I remember backing him here at a whopping 40/1 the first time he won. This time, though, the Australian is around the 12/5 mark.

De Minaur’s retrieving skills are ideally suited to the slow Solflex surface and these Mexican events – they also play on Solflex in Los Cabos – have always looked ones for those happy to slug it out from the back of the court and grind opponents down.

Of the two, I’d probably prefer De Minaur but while I would not be at all surprised to see the two top seeds in Saturday’s final, neither price makes much appeal, especially given the other seeds are all in the world’s top 30.

Cameron Norrie is a proven performer on the Solflex – as well as reaching the 2022 final here, he’s played in two Los Cabos finals, winning one of them.

I’ve backed him at both tournaments before but what puts me off doing so again is his awful head-to-head record against Zverev, who now leads their series 7-0 following a four-set victory at last month’s US Open.

The pair are seeded to meet in the last eight here and so I just can’t pull the trigger.

Maybe Zverev will be rusty – this is his first tournament since that Australian Open – but he has enjoyed conditions here before and it would be a surprise to see him fall early.

Flavio Cobolli is another in the top half who should enjoy a slow hardcourt. He returned to some sort of form in Delray Beach last week before losing to Sebastian Korda in the semis.

However, he also has struggled to lay a glove on Zverev in their previous meetings (0-2) and would be a firm outsider were they to meet in the last four.

Looking for big prices in the bottom half, two players who look well suited to conditions are Nuno Borges and Damir Dzumhur.

Dzumhur was the one I was most drawn to – I remember him winning on slow indoor hardcourts (Moscow and St Petersburg) in his pomp, albeit that was a long time ago now.

The Bosnian’s draw also looks to give him a chance to play himself into the tournament – it’s Gael Monfils on his retirement tour up first before a possible clash with Valentin Vacherot, who has struggled for wins so far in 2026 and last week lost in the first round in Delray Beach.

The problem is, Dzumhur really hasn’t shown much in the way of decent form of late – he’s lost three times already this season to players outside the top 100, while he was soundly beaten when he did face a player from the top 25, Francisco Cerundolo, at the Australian Open.

More favourable conditions will help but it still requires a leap of faith to back him at 66/1 and, frankly, I’m not prepared to take that jump.

It’s a rare I swerve a tournament completely but there looks much better bets elsewhere.

BCI Seguros Chile Open

• Santiago, Chile (outdoor clay)

The ‘Golden Swing’ of claycourt tournaments in South America concludes this week.

However, while we’ve got some surface formlines from the past fortnight in Buenos Aires and Rio de Janeiro, punters need to take into account that we’re now heading up in altitude to Santiago.

While the last two weeks down at sea level have seen some of the slowest conditions on the ATP Tour, this week they will play at around 700m up.

That will result in the balls ‘flying’ through the thinner air much easier and ball control becomes a major factor.

As I’ve mentioned many times before in this column, backing players with a proven track record in such conditions is usually a good tactic and will be my approach here.

The obvious choice is SEBASTIAN BAEZ, who was one of this column’s many each-way semi-final losers when beaten in Buenos Aires recently.

The Argentine lost early in Rio last week but maybe he had one eye on this event, one he has a terrific record at.

Baez won here in 2024, was runner-up in 2022 and 2025 and made the semis in 2023.

He’s clearly enjoyed playing here, his effort in Buenos Aires coming off the back of a fine hardcourt run Down Under at the start of the season.

Baez gets a first-round bye, too.

The main concern would probably be him being in a section of the draw featuring several home players, who do tend to go well here.

Cristian Garin won here in 2021 and could be Baez’s opening foe but he’s not the player he was five years ago. Then could come Alejandro Tabilo, a Santiago finalist in 2024, but also a player who was still playing in Rio on Sunday. That’s a quick turnaround, especially when you throw in the altitude change.

In these conditions, Baez looks worthy of support.

Up in the top half, we find top seed and title favourite Francisco Cerundolo.

He did win Buenos Aires but hasn’t got the altitude profile I’d want to warrant support at 4/1.

Matteo Berrettini does have that profile – he’s scooped up titles in the Alps on clay in the past – but I’m not convinced he’s back to a good enough level yet following another injury lay-off, one which forced him to start his 2026 campaign later than planned.

Instead, let’s take a long shot with YANNICK HANFMANN.

The German has always been one to note when the altitude has been in play.

His two ATP finals came in Kitzbuhel and Gstaad, both clay events way above sea level.

He’s twice made the quarter-finals in Santiago, while his losses here have tended to come in very tight matches – see last year’s final-set tie-break defeat to Cerundolo.

Using his serve well has been a big component of his altitude success and I was impressed to see that all bar one of his nine matches at this venue have seen his second-serve points-won percentage above 50%.

At 25/1, let’s give him a try to small stakes.

Posted at 18:35 GMT on 22/02/26

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