Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour best bets for Montpellier, Dallas and Cordoba
The ATP Tour resumes this week – Andy Schooler brings you his best bets for the tournaments in Montpellier, Dallas and Cordoba.
Recommended bets: ATP Tour tennis
0.5pt e.w. Marc-Andrea Huesler in the Open Sud de France at 28/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)
0.5pt e.w. Ugo Humbert in the Open Sud de France at 20/1 (Betfred)
2pts win Denis Shapovalov in the Dallas Open at 11/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt e.w. JJ Wolf in the Dallas Open at 14/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Betfred)
2pts win Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the Cordoba Open at 9/1 (Betfred)
0.5pt e.w. Roberto Carballes Baena in the Cordoba Open at 28/1 (General)
Open Sud de France
- Montpellier, France (indoor hard)
The big event of the week takes place in Montpellier where all eight seeds are members of the top 50.
The field is led by world number nine Holger Rune with the other top-20 player in attendance being Jannik Sinner.
Both played well at the recent Australian Open only to lose five-setters in the last 16 so it’s not hard to make a case for either man.
However, I’m not sure this is a great week to be getting with the favourites at fairly short prices.
Both men are entered in the higher-level event in Rotterdam next week. That particularly noteworthy for Rune, who has already played three Davis Cup rubbers since his efforts in Melbourne, helping Denmark progress.
Another reason I’m prepared to take him on is that a tricky opener likely lies in store.
MARC-ANDREA HUESLER pulled up a few trees during the indoor swing last autumn, including victory in Sofia (which landed this column a 40/1 winner).
He also beat Sinner in Paris, while he took sets off both Felix Auger-Aliassime and Karen Khachanov during a strong spell.
The Swiss arrives here off the back of two crucial Davis Cup victories, including one over Alex Zverev, which helped his nation to a surprise 3-2 win in Germany at the weekend.
That experience in indoor conditions should have him well prepared for the task ahead this week and what is usually a fairly fast venue should suit.
Huesler’s impressive serve wasn’t at its best last week but he still banged down a few aces and I’d expect it to do more damage in these conditions.
Assuming he can get past Luca van Assche in round one, Huesler will face Rune and that won’t be a match the top seed will relish.
Huesler beat the Dane in that Sofia final, holding serve throughout, and also toppled him on clay in Bastad earlier in the year so would bring a 2-0 head-to-head to the table. Both matches were won in straight sets.
Therefore, at 28/1, I’m prepared to have a punt on the Swiss star.
In the bottom half, Sinner is the obvious potential finalist – three of his six ATP titles have come on indoor hard.
However, I’ve already indicated I’m not particularly tempted by a pretty short price.
There are plenty of potential problems in his path, including eighth seed Benjamin Bonzi, a player who has started the year well, making the final in Pune and then the third round of the Australian Open.
However, Filip Krajinovic may usurp him before his slated quarter-final with Sinner – the Serb has twice made the semi-finals of this event and has often delivered indoors, conditions he was playing in as recently as Saturday, helping Serbia progress to the Davis Cup Finals.
I considered backing those two at around 20/1 but instead I’m going to try UGO HUMBERT at a similar price.
Indoor conditions with a bit of pace are ideal for the big-serving lefty, who likes to come forward and use his volleys.
His career went off track last season but there have been some encouraging signs in early 2023.
Humbert made the third round of the Australian Open and he’s now bedded into indoor tennis having played a key role in France’s weekend Davis Cup victory.
He won both of his singles rubbers, including the fifth and decisive one in the tie in Hungary.
In doing so, Humbert posted some good serving numbers – he won 77% of points behind his first serve and 63% behind his second – and lost his delivery only once.
Yes, the quality of opponent here is higher but I think that effort certainly gives him a platform to build on in home conditions which suit his game.
French players have an excellent record at this tournament, winning eight of its 12 editions. Seven of the runners-up have also been from the host nation.
With that in mind, I’m happy to take a chance on Humbert each way at 20/1.
Dallas Open
- Dallas, USA (indoor hard)
The Dallas Open is only in its second year, last year’s inaugural tournament having been won by Reilly Opelka.
That’s a nod to how things may play out again.
Big servers were prominent here 12 months ago and 12 of the 27 main-draw matches saw tie-breaks.
As well as Opelka’s title run, John Isner made the semis and Taylor Fritz and Vasek Pospisil the quarters and so I’m keen to have a good look at those with a big delivery, who could use the fairly quick conditions to their advantage.
The top seed and title favourite is Fritz, which is fair enough.
He started the year by leading the USA to victory at the United Cup team event but when well fancied for a good run at the Australian Open, he flopped.
Fritz impressed at the season-ending ATP Finals in November indoors but overall he’s not got a great record with a roof over his head and an awkward-looking opener against another big server – either Jack Sock or Ilya Ivashka – means he could get caught cold this week.
Preference is for DENIS SHAPOVALOV at 11/2.
He’s a player who performed well indoors last autumn, finishing runner-up in Vienna and helping Canada win the Davis Cup. He also made the final in Seoul in the autumn, albeit that was outdoors.
So far in 2023, he’s made the last eight in Adelaide where eventual champion and all-time great Novak Djokovic got the better of him, while at the Australian Open he bowed out in round three when coming up against Hubert Hurkacz.
Shapovalov had chances to win that but a poor game on serve in the final set proved very costly.
A repeat in these conditions could also prove fatal for his chances but I’m prepared to get with a player who is clearly keen to get plenty of hardcourt matches under his belt ahead of the ‘Sunshine Double’ of Indian Wells and Miami. After this, he’s off to Delray Beach and then Acapulco.
Shapovalov could meet Fritz in the semi-finals and so it’s worth noting he leads that head-to-head 5-2. It’s 2-0 on indoor hard with Shapo having won their most recent battle in Vienna in October.
In the opposite half, Isner is an obvious threat, although his dismal Australian showing suggested the veteran American is finally nearing the end.
The serve should keep him in matches but more is needed to win at this level.
Frances Tiafoe is the man the bookies expect to make the final but I’m happy to take him on with another player whose game is helped by a strong serve and that’s JJ WOLF.
He banged down 62 aces in his four Australian Open matches, producing a real breakthrough run at the top level, one which should fill him with confidence for the months ahead.
His return to action provide him with decent conditions for his game – it should be remembered that Wolf reached his maiden ATP final indoors in Florence back in the autumn.
As sixth seed, he looks fairly well drawn and I’d expect him to at least reach the last eight where a meeting with Tiafoe looks likely.
Their only previous meeting came on a hardcourt when Tiafoe edged home 6-4 in the decider. That was in 2021 and it’s fair to say Wolf has come on a lot since then.
At 14/1, he’s not the best bet in the world but it is one I’m prepared to back.
Cordoba Open
- Cordoba, Argentina (outdoor clay)
While bigger names continue to ply their trade on hardcourts on other continents, the claycourt crew have now gathered in South America for the month-long ‘Golden Swing’ on tournaments on the red dirt.
First stop is Cordoba which will be hosting the ATP Tour for the fifth time.
One two of the previous four occasions, it’s been virtually impossible to tip the winner – both Juan Ignacio Londero (2019) and Juan Manuel Cerundolo (2021) triumphed here without ever having won a tour-level match prior to the event.
I offer no apologies for no picking out those two!
However, last year we managed it in this column with ALBERT RAMOS-VINOLAS delivering a 14/1 winner.
The Spaniard is a master of tennis at altitude with a host of final appearances on his CV when playing well above sea level.
That’s the case in Cordoba where they compete more than 400m up. That’s not the highest altitude on the tour but it’s still significant, making the balls harder to control and giving extra pace to the big servers.
There aren’t too many of the latter in this field but of those gathered, the defending champion boasts the best record in such conditions.
At this tournament, last year’s win followed up a final appearance in 2021, while he also made the last eight in 2020.
At altitude, he’s also won in Gstaad, as well as making the title match in Kitzbuhel, Quito, Sao Paulo and Chengdu over the years.
A look back at last season shows that as well as winning here, he reached the semis in Gstaad and Kitzbuhel up in the Alps.
Ramos-Vinolas looks fairly well drawn with the only seed higher in the bottom half being Francisco Cerundolo, who I am keen to oppose given he was still in Finland on Sunday as part of Argentina’s defeated Davis Cup team. Even with a first-round bye, there will be little time to make the transition from indoor hard to the slow clay.
Perhaps the biggest challenge will come from Federico Coria, a player in form having won the recent clay Challenger held in Concepcion, Chile.
He is a former semi-finalist at this venue so will doubtless have his backers at 16s but I prefer the altitude man, Ramos-Vinolas.
Critics will point out he’s yet to win a match in 2023 but despite a 0-4 record in Australia, he was competitive on his weaker surface, winning at least a set in all of his matches. He was beaten 7-6 in the third by John Millman and took top-30 star Dan Evans to a decider too.
In no way does that put me off.
The top half is led by home star Diego Schwartzman.
Once again he’s the favourite here but in all four previous apperances he’s failed to live up to those expectations. While Schwartzman has always made the last eight, he’s reached the final only once and lost that (in 2021).
I came close to taking him on with Pedro Cachin, a player who shone on clay on the second-tier Challenger Tour last season, and one who I expect to contend in this sort of event at some point in 2023.
Perhaps it will be this week but my concern is that long trip back from Finland as he was another member of that Argentine Davis Cup side.
Some will still be prepared to take a chance at 28/1 but my preference is for another player at the same price, namely ROBERTO CARBALLES BAENA.
The Spaniard is another with a proven ability at altitude, albeit not the same level of Ramos-Vinolas.
RCB’s only ATP title came up high in Quito, while last season some of his best results came well above sea level – think quarter-final in Marrakech and semis of the Madrid Challenger.
Carballes Baena opens against seed and compatriot Bernabe Zapata Miralles but our man leads their head-to-head 5-1 (4-1 on clay), including the last three, which were all played within the past 12 months.
Daniel Galan (injured last week) or wild card Tomas Barrios Vera would follow, before a potential clash with Sebastian Baez.
I don’t think that’s a bad draw and a small play looks worthwhile.
Posted at 1730 GMT on 05/02/23
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