Andy Schooler previews the third-round action at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells.
Tennis betting tips: Indian Wells round three
1pt Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to beat Jakub Mensik at 13/10 (Sporting Index, SpreadEx)
1pt Learner Tien to beat Ben Shelton at 13/10 (BetMGM, VirginBet)
1pt Francisco Cerundolo to beat Jack Draper at 2/1 (Sky Bet, bet365, betway)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina v Jakub Mensik (Sun)
There are some interesting head-to-head records which catch the eye ahead of the third-round matches in Indian Wells, none more so than in this match-up.
Davidovich Fokina leads 4-1, winning the last four. Three of those have come on outdoor hardcourts. Across those matches, Mensik has only held serve 74% of the time – disappointing for a man with a real weapon of a serve – and has broken at a rate of 18%.
Pre-tournament, the Spaniard was one of those I considered in the outrights, the famously gritty courts seemingly suiting his game – he’s one very much prepared to grind things out when required.
The ever-changing desert conditions have made things tricky so far – sadly, results show I’ve certainly not got a handle on them – and perhaps another rise in temperatures here will work in Mensik’s favour.
However, I can’t resist backing Davidovich Fokina at odds-against given his dominance in those previous meetings.
Ben Shelton v Learner Tien (Sun)
These two have met only once before with Tien winning on the grasscourts of Mallorca last summer.
Shelton won a paltry 64% of first-serve points that day – one of his lowest such figures of the season – while Tien also tore into his second serve.
Tien’s return game could again be key to the outcome here. He’s at 23% for breaks of serve so far this season, with Shelton down on 16%.
Shelton’s numbers were improved during his recent Dallas title run although the indoor conditions there were a big help to those with a serve like his.
I’m not convinced he’ll have as much success here with Tien much more likely to cause more damage on return than Reilly Opelka did in the last round – and even he managed to force a deciding set.
It’s not long since Tien dismantled Daniil Medvedev at the Australian Open, where he almost took Alex Zverev to a fifth set as well.
I think he’s worth backing at odds-against.
Francisco Cerundolo v Jack Draper (Mon)
Followers of our outright preview will already have an interest here as I’ve backed Cerundolo to win this quarter.
I was therefore reluctant to get involved again but a price of 2/1 about the Argentine has lured me in.
Admittedly, he wasn’t at his best in his opening win over Benjamin Bonzi, scraping through in a final-set tie-break.
But something similar can be said about Draper, who had to fight back from a set down to defeat Roberto Bautista Agut, after which he admitted: "I am probably underprepared for this tournament compared to how I would like it to be."
Cerundolo will be Draper’s first top-20 opponent since he returned to the tour after long-term injury and, notably, the Argentine has won both of their previous meetings, the most recent of which was on a hardcourt in 2024, albeit indoors.
2/1 just looks too big to me and worth a try.
Posted at 08:40 GMT on 08/03/26
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