ATP Masters 1000 tennis returns in Indian Wells this week and that means Andy Schooler is back with his round-by-previews. Here’s the first.
Tennis betting tips: Indian Wells round one
1pt Mattia Bellucci to beat Gabriel Diallo at 11/10 (William Hill, BetMGM, 888sport)
1pt Damir Dzumhur to beat Jacob Fearnley at 6/5 (General)
Mattia Bellucci v Gabriel Diallo (Wed)
I can’t have Diallo as the favourite here.
He’s lost six of eight in 2026, with one of his wins coming against the world number 292 in Davis Cup. And even that went to a final-set tie-break.
The Canadian’s big problem has been on return of serve – he’s won only 9% of return games so far this season.
Another issue for him here in Indian Wells is that the usually sluggish courts blunt his decent first serve.
Bellucci had also been struggling but he returned to some sort of form in Acapulco last week where he downed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina with an impressive serving performance. A repeat of that would likely see Diallo struggle.
He certainly has struggled in his previous meetings with Bellucci, the Italian leading the head-to-head 3-1. It’s 2-1 on hardcourts with the other match being played on grass which you’d have thought had been in Diallo’s favour.
Bellucci at odds-against looks a good play to me.
Jacob Fearnley v Damir Dzumhur (Thu)
Dzumhur is a player who likes a slow hardcourt, which is what we’ve usually had here over the years – the gritty surface helping the ball slow down and kick up.
Two of his three career titles came in such conditions – in Moscow and St Petersburg – and while that was several years ago now, I’m surprised to see him at 6/5 here.
The Bosnian was a convincing winner over Fearnley in Athens at the end of last season, winning 6-4 6-2. That is the pair’s only previous meeting.
Fearnley hasn’t beaten anyone inside the top 100 yet this year, going 0-3 in such matches, and even a return to the Challenger Tour has failed to spark him to life.
In short, Dzumhur looks a tempting price, albeit he has shortened since I started writing this piece.
Posted at 09:45 GMT on 04/03/26
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