After two defeats from ‘match point’ up in his last preview, Andy Schooler looks ahead to Thursday’s quarter-finals at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells.
Tennis betting tips: Indian Wells
0.5pt Cameron Norrie to win a set v Carlos Alcaraz at 33/10 (BetMGM, Virgin Bet)
Carlos Alcaraz v Cameron Norrie (not before 0200 GMT, Fri)
My last-16 preview was one of those pieces that just leaves you on the floor once results have unfolded.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina had two points to get the win against Learner Tien but failed to get the job done and just a few hours later Joao Fonseca held three consecutive points to win his predicted set against Jannik Sinner. He ended up losing 7-6 7-6.
Ahead of Thursday’s quarter-finals that does leave you wondering whether taking on Carlos Alcaraz is the right thing to do as it certainly has the potential to go badly wrong.
However, I do feel this could be closer than the bookies are suggesting.
Norrie loves Indian Wells – the 2021 champion is now 18-6 here – while he’s also played well on other sluggish hardcourts, notably the Mexican events in Acapulco and Los Cabos.
He’s reached this stage thanks to three straight-sets victories, including one over Alex de Minaur, whose game would also appear to match up well on this surface.
Of course, Alcaraz is another step up but he’s hardly been flawless so far – in round three he was a set and a break down against Arthur Rinderknech.
Norrie doesn’t have the service weapon of the Frenchman, but his ability from the baseline has troubled Alcaraz before.
The left-hander has beaten the Spaniard three times in eight meetings, with three of the last five going the Briton’s way. The most recent came indoors in Paris at the end of last season, although he has won on outdoor hard – in Cincinnati just before Alcaraz’s maiden Grand Slam victory at the 2022 US Open.
The game handicap gives Norrie a 5.5 start, which I found tempting – with hindsight, that is the bet I should have had on Fonseca against Sinner.
However, my concern is that Alcaraz is able to dominate sets, as he showed in the decider against Rinderknech and the opener against Casper Ruud on Wednesday when he started like a train.
Instead, let’s try something more speculative, namely Norrie to win a set.
That’s a whopping 33/10 despite having occurred in four of their last six meetings.
Throw in the theory that this is an ideal venue for Norrie and it looks worth a small punt.
Jack Draper v Daniil Medvedev (not before 2359 GMT)
Draper proved a golden nugget for this column 12 months ago with his run to the final but it’s fair to say my decision to take him on this week has rather backfired.
It’s still very early in his comeback from long-term injury – this will be only his seventh match since last year’s US Open – but he’s taken down Francisco Cerundolo (with ease) and Novak Djokovic (not with ease) in the last two rounds, showing the sort of form which lifted him to world number four last year.
However, the gruelling nature of that win over Djokovic concerns me ahead of this meeting with a player who hasn’t put a foot wrong so far in Indian Wells.
There were a lot of lengthy rallies in a match which lasted more than two and a half hours and the schedule means Draper now has to return to court less than 24 hours later. That fatigue element may be a factor here and I do wonder how Draper’s notoriously fragile body will be feeling heading into this one.
Medvedev has had no such matches – he’s breezed through the rounds in straight sets – and also comes into this contest knowing he beat Draper in their only previous meeting, albeit that was on clay in Rome in 2024.
Draper managed to punch enough holes in the Djokovic defence but I’m not convinced he’ll do the same here.
The problem is the prices look about right – the Russian is the 13/20 favourite with Draper at a best of 11/8.
If pushed, I’d probably go with Medvedev giving up a 1.5-game start on the handicap to push the price up but ultimately I’m going to leave this alone.
Posted at 08:15 GMT on 12/03/26
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