French Open men's singles betting tips: Preview and best bets for Roland Garros

Tennis betting tips: French Open men's singles

2pts e.w. Casper Ruud at 12/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Nicolas Jarry at 100/1 (General)

0.5pt Luciano Darderi to win the second quarter at 50/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

French Open

• Roland Garros, Paris, France (outdoor clay)

Excuse me for showing my age but one of my favourite tennis moments came in 2002 when Pete Sampras won the US Open against the odds for one last hurrah.

After beating Andre Agassi in a classic final, Sampras never played another match. What a way to leave the stage.

Many Rafael Nadal fans – and even the man himself – will be clinging to the hope of a similar fairytale unfolding at this year’s French Open.

This is set to be Nadal’s final visit to Roland Garros, an event he has won on a remarkable 14 occasions.

To think Sampras’ 2002 triumph was his 14th Grand Slam title at any venue, shows just what an incredible achievement this is.

Nadal is the greatest clay player of them all and I’m sure I’ll never see his like again, but the chances of title number 15 arriving in the next fortnight are, sadly for fairytale lovers, not good.

The Spaniard’s return to the tour at the start of the season after virtually 12 months out would have been made with this tournament as the primary goal.

But the ailing body which has caused Nadal problems throughout his career – and arguably added even greater significance to his feats – hasn’t played ball.

After the Australian Open there was another lengthy spell on the sidelines with even the start of the clay season in Monte Carlo missed.

He has at least played the last three warm-up events – Barcelona, Madrid and Rome – but a 5-3 win-loss record across those is a far cry from the past and there has been little to suggest he’s ready to contend in Paris where he faces the added issue of the longer, best-of-five-sets format.

The draw hasn’t been kind either.

Nadal would have hoped for a soft opening week in a bid to find that winning groove he knows so well but instead he’ll have to face fourth seed and recent Rome champion Alex Zverev in round one.

This could be the final claycourt match of Nadal’s 20-year career and it could also mark the first time during it that he’s lost back-to-back matches on the surface at tour level.

In short – and I know I’ve waxed lyrical here – it’s highly unlikely that a dream scenario plays out.

It was the same for Roger Federer as he limped into retirement – and there have been signs that Novak Djokovic’s best days are now behind him too.

While Djokovic is still involved in the Geneva Open, at time of writing the Serb is yet to win a title in 2024 – almost five months without one is rare indeed.

A long-standing arm issue clearly troubled him in the early weeks of the campaign, although more recently it has appeared to be a lack of confidence which has been the bigger issue.

He’s lost matches in pretty dismal fashion – Alejandro Tabilo comfortably beating him in Rome and Luca Nardi causing a stunning upset in Indian Wells.

While it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see Djokovic find his best form when it matters most, he’s clearly been struggling to flick the switch of late and I’ve no interest in backing him at 3/1.

Nadal and Djokovic have won 13 of the last 14 titles here between them but with question marks hanging over the pair, you’d have thought the leaders of the new generation, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, would be well placed to take advantage of what looks the most open Roland Garros for 20 years.

But that hasn’t gone to plan either.

Both men arrive in Paris having seen their claycourt season disrupted by injury – something which makes it hard for punters to get enthused about their title chances.

Alcaraz’s forearm has been an issue for some time and the problem has resulted in him playing only one claycourt tournament this spring.

There, in Madrid, he arguably should have lost to Jan-Lennard Struff and eventually did lose to Andrey Rublev.

Alcaraz arrives in Paris with a 5-3 win-loss record on clay this year – poor by his standards – and it should also be remembered that for all the hype, he’s yet to reach the final of this event, delivering a poor performance against Zverev in the 2022 quarter-finals and then cramping up with nerves in last year’s semi against Djokovic.

Again, if Alcaraz is fully fit, he’s quite capable of winning but, given what we’ve seen and currently know, he looks an opposable favourite.

Similar doubts surround Sinner, who can also be swerved.

His injury is a more worrying hip one – movement is key on clay and Sinner’s own comments about potentially having to hold back for future tournaments the other week did set the alarm bells ringing.

The Italian has arrived in Paris but after he withdrew mid-tournament in Madrid and then missed Rome altogether, it’s fair to say he’s coming in underprepared.

This is a player who admits that clay isn’t his natural habitat – he said heading to the Monte Carlo Masters last month that he considered it a “practice week” – and so having not got plenty of matches under his belt has to be something of a setback, never mind how his body currently is.

I’d much prefer to back a player from the next tranche of players in the market – and you can make a decent case for Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and CASPER RUUD.

• CLICK HERE to back Ruud with Sky Bet

Let’s start with Zverev, who found his form impressively in Rome a couple of weeks ago, capturing the title to suggest he’s ready for another crack at the big one in Paris.

The German has often played well in Rome and it’s the same at Roland Garros where he’s reached the semi-finals in each of the last three years.

I still wonder what would have happened if Zverev hadn’t destroyed his ankle in an awful fall during his last-four meeting with Nadal in 2022 – the pair had played a cracking match for three hours and were still only in the second set at the time of the incident.

Memories of that will come flooding back from the duo meet again in round one, a match I would expect Zverev to win, although it’s by no means certain.

My concerns with Zverev, who has been placed in Djokovic’s half of the draw, are two-fold.

First, he’s too often taken the scenic route through the draw, struggling to win matches in straight sets and that perhaps has cost him in the latter stages in the past – certainly he struggled against Ruud in last season’s semi-final.

But, secondly, there’s a storm brewing with Zverev’s court case over domestic abuse charges due to get under way next week.

While the German won’t need to attend, the case will bring a lot of unwanted attention his way, especially during his media duties – and he’s been clearly annoyed by the awkward questions in the past. There are sure to be more in the coming days.

The Roland Garros fans can really turn on players and it would be no surprise for them to get on Zverev’s back; they will certainly be against him when he faces Nadal.

Turning to Tsitsipas, I have to admit I didn’t think I’d even be considering the Greek as a potential winner at the start of the claycourt season.

But it turned out that a change of surface was exactly what the doctor ordered with Tsitsipas winning in Monte Carlo and then reaching the Barcelona final.

Still, it was at that point that the break-up of his relationship with WTA star Paula Badosa hit the headlines and perhaps that is the reason why his form has dipped since – he lost early in Madrid and was then upset by Nicolas Jarry in Rome.

Those results have cost him a top-eight seeding and that’s subsequently resulted in a tricky draw – he’s got both Alcaraz and Madrid champion Rublev in his quarter, with Sinner potentially awaiting in the semis.

Frankly, I now feel 9/1 is a little on the short side.

So, onto Ruud, a player I’ve long felt doesn’t quite get the respect he’s due on this surface.

Despite the fact that he’s reached the last two French Open finals, the Norwegian is out at 12/1 – 14s in a place – a price which makes him the sixth favourite.

Form is strong too with the Monte Carlo final reached before he went one better the following week by capturing the Barcelona title.

He’s currently in Geneva and while some will be concerned by the fact he’s playing the week before a Slam, this is his regular routine – he’s played the Swiss event in each of the last two years, winning it in 2022 (when he also made the final in Paris).

Last year Ruud defeated Zverev comfortably on Court Philippe Chatrier and he arrives here having seen off both Tsitsipas and Djokovic during the ongoing clay campaign.

It may not have been peak Djokovic but the latter victory should certainly fuel confidence – it was his maiden win over the world number one.

He may need to beat the Serb again in Paris – the pair are in the same quarter and it is his draw which will be an off-putting factor for some.

Jakub Mensik, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Taylor Fritz, Djokovic and Zverev is a possible route to the final and that certainly looks tough.

That said, Ruud is unquestionably one of the best claycourters in the world, one who shouldn’t fear a tough draw, and we all know the chances of him having to play all those players is actually low – there will be surprises.

Indeed, this is a tournament which could well deliver quite a few, for reasons I’ve already explained, and with that in mind I’m definitely minded to get a couple of long shots onside.

First up, NICOLAS JARRY.

• CLICK HERE to back Jarry with Sky Bet

The Chilean really hit form in Rome recently where he surged to the final before losing to Zverev.

He’s proven to be a streaky player over the years with another example of an impressive string of results coming in Geneva last season where he beat Ruud and Zverev en route to the title. He followed that up with a run to the last 16 in Paris.

Jarry, who boasts a strong serve which is tough to break when he’s in the groove, is very much at home on this surface – all seven of his ATP finals have come on clay (with three of them won).

He’s been handed a decent-enough draw, placed in the Sinner quarter. The pair could meet in the last 16 with Jarry 1-0 up on the head-to-head, albeit it was several years ago.

Hubert Hurkacz and Grigor Dimitrov are the other higher-ranked seeds in this section (both will have one eye on the upcoming grasscourt season where their games will work better) so I feel it’s one that Jarry can make an impact on if he maintains his strong recent levels.

An each-way punt at 100/1 is the call.

Finally, it’s off to the second quarter where I can’t resist a big-priced punt on LUCIANO DARDERI to reach the semi-finals.

• CLICK HERE to back Darderi with Sky Bet

The Italian has been one of the breakout stars of 2024 on clay.

Few players have won as many matches as Darderi on this surface this year and that confidence has the potential to carry a proper claycourter a long way.

He announced his name to the world by winning the Cordoba Open in February and he’s kept on winning a lot since.

There was a semi-final in Houston, two more at Challenger events in his home country, and he’s also made the last four in Lyon this week – hopefully he can go one step further after this is published and deliver a profit for my preview of that event!

The second quarter is that of Zverev but I’ve already mentioned the problems he could face and Darderi looks just the sort of player who could make life awkward for the German should they meet in round three – I remember Sebastian Baez causing him all sorts of trouble in 2022 with his ability to get balls back into play.

There are other good players in this section – Daniil Medvedev, Alex de Minaur, Karen Khachanov – but none screams obvious winner if quarter favourite Zverev is toppled so I’m happy to take a shot at Darderi at 50/1.

This is a Grand Slam which so often has been straightforward, yet this year looks anything but. As such it's difficult to carry a high degree of confidence into a fascinatingly open renewal, but the above selections can give us a good run at nice prices.

Posted at 1205 BST on 24/05/24

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.