Andy Schooler previews Saturday’s Australian Open women’s singles final between Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina.
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open matches
1pt Elena Rybakina to beat Aryna Sabalenka at 29/20 (BetMGM)
1pt Rybakina to break serve over 2.5 times at 13/10 (BetMGM)
Aryna Sabalenka v Elena Rybakina (0830 GMT)
In my outright preview of the Australian Open, I described Sabalenka as “the best hardcourt player in the world”.
She’s duly made the final without losing a set and stands one win away from landing a decent profit for followers.
However, Saturday’s final will not be easy and I’d go so far as to suggest that Sabalenka would rather be facing anyone else than Elena Rybakina.
For all my 'best hardcourt player' claims, Rybakina actually leads Sabalenka 6-5 in their previous meetings on this surface, although the Belarusian leads 8-6 overall. Interestingly, eight of those 14 battles have gone to a deciding set.
Despite trailing overall, Rybakina has the edge on several key head-to-head stats – she has better figures for first-serve points won (72%-68%), second-serve points won (48-47) and return points won (40-38) across those matches.
Like Sabalenka, she’s yet to lose a set in Melbourne and has been striking the ball so well.
She’s long been regarded as the best server in the women’s game and that’s borne out by the fact she’s held in 86% of service games in the tournament (Sabalenka is at 84%) and has won 74% of first-serve points (Sabalenka 68%).
In the pair’s last meeting – at the season-ending WTA Finals in Riyadh – Rybakina held throughout her straight-sets win. She also achieved that feat when the pair met on outdoor hard in Cincinnati last year.
Speaking ahead of the final, Rybakina stressed that her serve would be crucial as she looks to gain revenge for a three-set defeat to Sabalenka in the 2023 final here.
The Kazakh said: "Hopefully with all the experience which I got from this last match, last final I played here, I can bring it to Saturday’s match and do my best, focus on my serve, of course. Since we are both very aggressive players, serve is important. Hopefully this time it's gonna go my way."
Rybakina has now won 19 of her last 20 matches, including nine in a row against top-10 opponents, so I’m not sure she could have arrived at this match in any better shape.
Admittedly, she did get a bit nervy towards the end of her semi-final win over Jessica Pegula, who could easily have forced a final set, but the fact she came through that test will stand her in good stead here.
We’ve seen Sabalenka get rather tight in big matches in the past. She lost finals both here and at Roland Garros in 2025 when her frustrations were clearly visible when the tide turned. However, she insists she has learned from those defeats.
"I actually know what was wrong in all of those finals that I played and I lost," she said. "I would say that last year was lots of lessons, lots of things to learn about myself, and definitely not going to happen again this season. I feel like those frustrations were coming from not agreeing with what's going on in the moment, and right now my mentality is I'm ready to do whatever (is necessary) in that final."
Of course, Sabalenka, playing her fourth straight Australian Open final, has the power to go toe-to-toe with Rybakina and this match could well be decided by first-strike tennis – the serve and the serve-plus-one shot look key.
In any long rallies, both players have great ability to hit deep to the corners and it promises to be an intriguing clash.
I’ve written a lot about Rybakina and maybe not enough about the world number one, who has improved as the tournament has moved towards its business end, but what I’m trying to get across is this looks a very close match, tough to call.
Yet when I look at the odds, Sabalenka is a clear favourite at 8/13.
For me, Rybakina, a player who has clearly troubled her opponent in the past and is certainly in great form, looks the value at 29/20.
In the sub-markets, I think Rybakina to break serve over 2.5 times looks big at 13/10 (BetMGM).
She’s broken the Sabalenka serve 3+ times in eight of their last 10 meetings and there looks a decent chance this will be another tight three-setter in their series.
The fact that the final is being played at night means conditions will also be a tad slower, too, aiding the returner.
Over 7.5 aces (8/11, bet365) for the Kazakh is another to consider.
She’s had tallies of 13-6-11-14 in her 2025 matches with Sabalenka and managed 8+ against both Iga Swiatek and Elise Mertens earlier this week.
Posted at 11:45 GMT on 30/01/26
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