Andy Schooler previews Wednesday’s quarter-finals at the Australian Open in Melbourne.
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open matches
1.5pts tie-break in Ben Shelton v Jannik Sinner at 8/11 (bet365, William Hill)
1pt Novak Djokovic to beat Lorenzo Musetti 3-0 at 2/1 (bet365, BetVictor)
1pt Jessica Pegula to serve most aces v Amanda Anisimova at 3/1 (bet365)
Elena Rybakina v Iga Swiatek (0030 GMT)
The first thing to say is that the weather is due to be much cooler than for Tuesday’s quarter-finals (25C max) and so it’s unlikely to have a say in the outcome of any of the matches. Expect the Rod Laver Arena roof to remain open all day.
The opening contest has already seen a significant market move. Swiatek was chalked up as a slight favourite by most bookies but the market has now flip-flopped in Rybakina’s favour.
You can see why.
She’s yet to lose a set and dismantled the in-form Elise Mertens in the last round for the loss of just four games, holding her fearsome serve throughout.
Swiatek also brushed aside her fourth-round opponent, Maddison Inglis, but she lost a set to the only seed she’s faced so far, Anna Kalinskaya, and this looks a considerable step up in quality for the Pole, who has already lost to Coco Gauff and Belinda Bencic this season.
Still, she does hold the upper hand against Rybakina in their head-to-head – 6-5 overall and 5-3 on hardcourts.
My initial thought was that the original pricing was probably about right and I’m not sure there’s value left in Rybakina’s price.
Frankly, I can see this gong either way so it looks one to sit back and watch – if you’re not asleep at this hour.
Jessica Pegula v Amanda Anisimova (not before 0200 GMT)
These are two players who have done everything asked of them so far in Melbourne.
Neither has lost a set and both have looked good in doing so.
As readers of my antepost preview will know, I’m on Anisimova for the title at 10/1 so in that sense I have no need to get involved here.
My view at that stage was that she’d win any quarter-final against Pegula and I stand by that view, although critics will note that Pegula has won all three previous meetings.
However, the pair haven’t played since Toronto in 2024 and it’s fair to say Anisimova has improved significantly since then, reaching the last two Grand Slam finals ad I believe her extra power will prove a decisive factor.
One takeaway from that head-to-head record which has the potential to provide a profit is the ace count.
Pegula out-aced Anisimova 6-2 in that Toronto clash, while it was 7-3 in their other 2024 meeting in Charleston. Their first match brought a 1-1 aces tie.
So far at this tournament, Anisimova is in the ascendancy but only just – she’s served 0.43 aces per game to Pegula’s 0.35.
The 3/1 on offer about Pegula serving the most aces looks tempting, with head-to-head records often the key clue.
Lorenzo Musetti v Novak Djokovic (not before 0330 GMT)
When I think of this match-up, I tend to remember the close battles this pair have had.
The very first meeting – at Roland Garros in 2021 – saw Musetti run out of gas having established a two-set lead. He also led in their 2024 clash there, while the most recent clash, in Athens at the end of the last season, also went to a deciding set.
Yet for all that noise, the fact is Djokovic leads 9-1, winning the last six. It’s 4-0 on hardcourts with the majority of matches being won easily by the Serb.
Dive into the data and the figures are very worrying for Musetti.
Across the entire series, Djokovic has won 42% of the Italian’s service games – he’s always broken serve at least three times – and held 80% of the time.
Apply the hardcourt filer and it’s 44% breaks and 88% holds.
You could argue the 38-year-old isn’t the best version of Djokovic but he’s yet to drop a set in Melbourne and also got a welcome rest in the last 16 when handed a walkover. In contrast, Musetti was pushed hard in both his opener against Raphael Collignon and by Tomas Machac, who he beat in five sets.
Given all that, 2/1 about Djokovic winning this in straight sets – the outcome in six of their 10 matches – just looks too big and deserves support.
Ben Shelton v Jannik Sinner (not before 0800 GMT)
If Musetti’s history with Djokovic is worrying, let’s also spare a though for Shelton here.
After winning their first meeting in 2023, the American has lost eight times in a row to Sinner – and he’s lost 19 consecutive sets.
His biggest issue has been dealing with Sinner’s serve – he’s broken it just 5% of the time across those nine matches.
Sinner has enjoyed much greater success on return – his break figure is 22% and in terms of raw numbers, the Italian has broken serve 25 times to Shelton’s six. Shelton has failed to break in four of nine matches, including their most recent in Turin at the end of last season.
While Shelton dealt with Casper Ruud well on Monday, Sinner will be able to do much more damage on the return and I’m sure the straight-sets victory will be popular, even at 8/11.
For me, there’s not a lot of wriggle room there and preference is to follow another trend from the H2H and get involved in the tie-break markets.
There’s been a breaker in eight of the nine previous meetings, with Shelton be able to fend off Sinner enough with his serve to get into those situations, although he’s been unable to do much once into the shoot-out.
Only during his heat-induced wobble against Elliot Spizzirri has Sinner lost serve in Melbourne, while Shelton has dropped his delivery just three times in his four rounds so far.
I’m surprised to see a tie-break in the match offered at 8/11 and will back that accordingly.
Posted at 11:55 GMT on 27/01/26
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