Andy Schooler previews Wednesday’s semi-finals at the ATP National Bank Open in Montreal.
Tennis tips: National Bank Open
0.5pt Learner Tien to serve most aces v Ben Shelton at 13/2 (bet365)
Rafael Jodar v Brandon Nakashima
- Wednesday, 2300 BST
Jodar’s rapid ascent towards the top of the sport continued apace in the last eight on Tuesday as Arthur Fils was defeated for the second week running.
The Spaniard’s all-round game proved too good for Fils, who was unable to control the match on his serve - Jodar broke four times and created 12 break points.
That level of success on return does not bode well for Nakashima, whose game is built around his strong first serve.
Of course, it doesn’t translate that Jodar will have the same level of success - for a start, he’s never met Nakashima on a match court before - but I would expect him to win this.
The bookies do too - he’s around the 4/9 mark. Possible alternatives include a straight-sets win at a shade of odds-against.
For something bigger, a first-set tie-break would not surprise me given Nakashima’s strong serve, relatively weak return and that fact that both men will be seeing each other’s delivery for the first time.
That’s around the 10/3 mark but, frankly, this isn’t a match where I’m seeing any worthwhile bets.
Learner Tien v Ben Shelton
- To follow semi-final 1
Admittedly, I called Shelton’s match with Jakub Mensik badly wrong in the last round but I can’t have been the only one surprised by the way the American dismantled his opponent.
He made mincemeat of the Czech’s serve and dominated the contest. He’s still yet to lose a set in Montreal as he defends the title won in Toronto 12 months ago and has to be favourite here.
That said, Tien has won both of their previous meetings, the most recent of which came on the hardcourts of Indian Wells earlier this season.
He’s lost just the one set so far - to Gael Monfils in his opening match - and will have some backers at around the 13/8 mark.
The bet I like here is a long shot in the ace markets, of which there are a few about - it may not win but it certainly looks overpriced.
Tien’s serve has given Shelton some problems in those previous meetings and it’s eye-catching that he out-aced the big server 15-8 in Indian Wells.
Now, Shelton was a little under the weather that day, but when they met on grass in Mallorca in 2025, the ace count was 7-7 so it’s clear to me that he isn’t getting the best read on Tien’s delivery.
Given this, the 13/2 about TIEN SERVING THE MOST ACES looks on the large side.
The market looks to have been priced up largely based on ace performance so far in Montreal - you won’t be surprised that Shelton holds a 17-5 on this metric.
However, 17 aces in four matches isn’t outstanding for a server of Shelton’s stature. He managed only one in his victory over Mensik, while it was just three against Jenson Brooksby, a player with a strong return, who is comparable in many ways to Tien.
Like I say, it may not win but on a day when I’m struggling to find other bets that I’m confident on, it looks worth a small play.
Posted 10:50 BST on 12/08/2026
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling.
Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
