Tennis tips: National Bank Open
1pt over 12.5 games in first set of Jakub Mensik v Ben Shelton at 9/4 (bet365)
Rafael Jodar v Arthur Fils (Mon)
This looks the tie of the round with two rising stars going head-to-head.
Long-term readers will know I’m a big fan of Fils and I’m a little tempted by him here at odds-against.
The Frenchman was excellent against Cam Norrie the other day and hasn’t been broken in either of his last two matches.
He’s looked back to the sort of early-season form which saw him surge back up the rankings following injury problems – he was a runner-up in Doha and made the latter stages in both Indian Wells and Miami.
However, the level now rises.
If Fils has surged up the ranking list, Jodar has flown up them. Currently at 15th, he is on course to take the record for the fewest days between moving into the top 100 – which he did on March 30 - and the top 10. It’s currently held by a certain Boris Becker, for those wondering.
So far this week, he’s beaten Jiri Lehecka and Lorenzo Musetti but perhaps the result we need to take into account most is last week’s victory over Fils in Washington, where Jodar ended up making the final.
There’s obviously an argument of fatigue kicking in but this is a 19-year-old who has shown no real signs of that being the case so far in Montreal.
That straight-sets success where nearly all the stats show he was the better player is enough to put me off backing Fils here.
Jakub Mensik v Ben Shelton (Tue)
This should be Tuesday’s top match and it’s one I’m expecting to be serve dominated.
These aren’t the quickest hardcourt conditions around but the fact is Shelton has lost her serve just three times in three rounds so far, while Mensik has dropped his delivery only once in the last two.
A look at the pair’s previous meetings – Mensik leads 2-1 – also suggests breaking serve could be tough, especially for Shelton.
Their last two matches both came last season. In Madrid, Shelton failed to create a single break point, while across three sets in Auckland, there was just one break apiece.
With Shelton the weakest of the top 10 for return games won this season (only 13%), it would be no surprise to see him struggle in this one.
I like bet365’s offer of even-money about Shelton breaking serve under 1.5 times.
However, with no other firms offering that market at time of writing, I feel it would make more sense for readers if I side with a first-set tie-break which can be backed at 9/4.
We’ve got two big servers and two relatively poor returners and this was the result when they last met on an outdoor hardcourt.
Here’s hoping for a repeat.
Posted 09:55 BST on 10/08/2026
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