Snooker betting tips: Tour Championship preview and best bets, Wednesday March 24
Snooker betting tips: Tour Championship
2pts Barry Hawkins to beat Judd Trump (+2.5) at 6/4 (General)
2pts over 17.5 frames in Mark Selby v Kyren Wilson match at 13/8 (bet365)
Judd Trump v Barry Hawkins (1300 Thursday)
Judd Trump is an understandably warm order for this clash, but standout odds of 1/4 underestimate the threat BARRY HAWKINS can pose and I’m keen to have the Hawk on side in the handicap markets.
The case for Trump to claim a sixth win of the season is a typically robust one, but this tournament is now an elite event, arguably one of the biggest on the calendar, and Trump’s detractors might argue that his early exit at the Players Championship, and the fact he doesn’t currently hold any of the three Triple Crown titles, suggests he isn’t without his frailties.
Whether that charge is unjust is a moot point, one which Trump himself will no doubt be keen to quash here and at the forthcoming World Championship, but I do think there are reasons to believe Hawkins will keep him honest on Thursday.
Hawkins can put it up to Trump
To begin with, Hawkins has enjoyed his fair share of success against Trump over the years and the fact he only trails the world number one 14-10 in past meetings reaffirms that point. In fact, that record would read even better if Hawkins hadn’t surrendered a 5-1 lead over Trump in the semi-finals of the German Masters recently, while they fought out another close match in the last four of the 2019 World Grand Prix.
Crucially, Hawkins has been close to his very best again in recent months following a quiet spell and as his Crucible record would suggest, he is always a force to be reckoned with in these multi-session format matches.
While Trump suffered a rare blip at the aforementioned Players Championship, Hawkins went down swinging against O’Sullivan in the semi-finals there and he didn’t do a great deal wrong when losing 4-3 to an inspired Matthew Selt at the Gibraltar Open the following week.
With Hawkins close to firing on all cylinders once more, and Trump occasionally taking his time to warm up at the beginning of tournaments before coming good later in the week, I think the former can at the very least be competitive. Take Hawkins on the handicap (+2.5) at 6/4.
Mark Selby v Kyren Wilson (1300 Wednesday)
With the exception of John Higgins, it is hard to imagine two players more suited to the multi-session format of the Tour Championship than Mark Selby and Kyren Wilson and they face off in an intriguing clash at the Celtic Manor on Wednesday.
Despite his impressive recent record in the Home Nations series, Selby has made an illustrious career out of being the archetypal grinder who likes to tease and probe at his opponent’s weakness, slowly unpicking their defences before calmly carrying out his kill at the end of what is usually a bloody encounter.
With ice seemingly running through his veins and the ability to win ‘ugly’ with impressive regularly, it is little wonder Selby has revelled in the pressure cooker of the Crucible Theatre and three world titles between 2014 and 2017 only demonstrates his effectiveness under these conditions.
While Selby might sometimes find himself vulnerable to a sharp shooter in shorter matches, his style of play means you would usually fancy him to prevail in matches of two sessions or more and that’s probably why his Scottish Open victory earlier this season was his 11th consecutive win in a ranking final.
Selby warming up for Crucible charge
If you’re looking for a marathon runner, in snooker terms at least, Selby is your man, and but for Ronnie O’Sullivan’s breathless late-show at the Crucible last summer, the Leicester native might now have four world titles to his name.
As alluded to in my Antepost Angle column here back in December, I firmly expect Selby to mount another bold Crucible bid in a few weeks’ time and this event, one which ought to suit him well, should allow him to fine tune his game ahead of Sheffield next month.
Just to add more meat to the bones, it is worth noting that Selby won the China Championship – held in late March to early April – in 2015, 2017 and 2018 as his final preparation for the World Championship, while he reached the semi-finals of this event, the final one before Sheffield, last season.
In sum, everything points to Selby returning to peak form right about now and having picked up a couple of title wins before Christmas, he confirmed he remains in good touch by reaching the final of the Shootout and last eight of the Welsh Open and Players Championship recently.
Wilson's consistency keeps him in the hunt
As for Wilson, he has looked every inch a world champion in waiting for a few years now and following three quarter-finals and a last-four finish at the Crucible, the Kettering man produced a brilliant run to the final last year.
He, too, possesses many of the same traits that Selby boasts and his time in Sheffield will surely come, with his strong and consistent form this term suggesting he won’t be far away again next month.
Key to Wilson’s development in the last 12 months or so has been his improved cue-ball control and while I would still like to see him relax more in big matches, his hunger and fierce will to win is what makes him the competitor he is.
This is actually only Wilson’s second appearance at the Tour Championship, but it is hard to believe he won’t be right at home in this one-table set-up and in matches played over two sessions, and a hard-fought scrap, full of lengthy safety jousts and close frames, could be in the offing.
Selby dominates the head-to-head between the pair (13-3) but they played out a thrilling match at the Champion Of Champions before Christmas – Selby coming from 4-0 down to prevail 6-5 – and while I think it will be the older man who will come out on top again, he might have to work hard for it.
Back OVER 17.5 TOTAL FRAMES at 13/8 and put the percolator on is my advice, for this could be a late one.
Preview posted at 1340 GMT 23/03/12
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