Andy Schooler will preview the ATP Masters 1000 events this season on a round-by-round basis. Here are his best match bets for the first round at Indian Wells.
Recommended bets Indian Wells round one
1.5pts Learner Tien to beat Mariano Navone 2-0 at evens (Sky Bet)
1pt Corentin Moutet to beat Jordan Thompson at 11/10 (William Hill, 888sport)
1.5pts over 0.5 tie-breaks in Miomir Kecmanovic v Tallon Griekspoor at 17/20 (William Hill)
0.5pt over 12.5 games in first set of Kecmanovic v Griekspoor at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
Mariano Navone v Learner Tien
Excuse the trumpet-blowing but I wrote in pre-season about Tien being one of the tour’s rising stars and duly tipped him at 2/1 to finish the year inside the top 70. He’s already inside that line and, injury permitting, that bet will surely land.
Having reached the fourth round of the Australian Open in January, last week he beat world number two Alex Zverev in Acapulco en route to the quarter-finals where it took eventual champion Tomas Machac to beat him. Clearly, form is good coming into what is basically his home tournament – he’s from Irvine, just a couple of hours’ drive away.
He’s certainly very much at home on hardcourts, which is not something that can be said of his opponent, who has played most of his tennis on clay.
Indeed, this will be only the 20th tour-level hardcourt match of Navone’s career and he’s won only five of the first 19. Nine of the losses have come in straight sets and that’s the bet I like here.
I’d expect Tien to feast on Navone’s serve and on this surface I’d expect there to be a gulf in class. Back Tien to win this 2-0.
Corentin Moutet v Jordan Thompson
Thompson hasn’t played since the Australian Open in mid-January due to a calf injury which he sustained in the opening week of the season.
Even if that’s fully healed, there may well be some rust to shake off, while conditions seem unlikely to suit the Australian, who likes to come forward.
Quick conditions are preferable for Thompson’s gameplan but they look unlikely to be on offer here.
I wrote in my outright preview about how the court surface has changed from Plexipave to Laykold at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden but qualifying showed little sign of a significant change of speed – this has long been one of the slower hardcourt events on the tour in terms of the ball coming off the surface.
When there’s such a change, it’s always awkward for punters until they’ve seen a few days’ play but it would seem conditions will suit Moutet more here.
He’s not exactly sparkled this season but did beat seed Alexei Popyrin at the Australian Open, where he made the third round.
I’m a bit surprised to see him at odds-against and will bet accordingly.
Miomir Kecmanovic v Tallon Griekspoor
I accept this may come across as rather contradictory to what I’ve written about the potential for slow conditions but I do like the chance of a tie-break in this match.
That’s simply due to the fact that these two play so many of them.
There has been a breaker in all three of their previous meetings, while Griekspoor has been rattling them out on tour in 2025 – he’s played a tie-break in seven of his last nine matches with 11 of his last 22 sets going the distance.
For those worried about the (likely) slow courts, it’s worth noting the players’ venue history.
Griekspoor has played a tie-break in four of his five matches in Indian Wells, while Kecmanovic has seen one in eight of 14.
They’ve also been the friends of first-set tie-break backers – it’s four of five for Griekspoor and five of his last six for Kecmanovic.
Griekspoor’s poor return game is a big factor. He’s broken in less than 10% of his return games this season but has held in 88% of his own service games. Kecmanovic is up at a none-too-shabby 84% on the same metric.
Let’s back a tie-break in the match at 17/20 and place a smaller bet on one in the opening set at 5/2.
Posted at 0955 GMT on 05/03/25
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