16:30 Ascot

Friday 4 October 2024

All14:1214:4715:2215:5716:3017:05

Bet MGM Handicap

Off time: 16:30 | Winning time: 1m 15.54s

(9)

Commanche Falls^p¹³

Age: 7| Weight: 9-13| J: Connor Beasley| T: M Dods| OR: 106| D

11/1

Has yet to score in 2024 but comes here in decent nick, first home in his group when sixth of 25 in Ayr Gold Cup 13 days ago. Cheekpieces replace blinkers and in the mix once more.

Form: 256346

(8)

Never So Brave⁴³

Age: 3| Weight: 9-7| J: R L Moore| T: Sir Michael Stoute| OR: 101| BF

11/4

Dual 7f winner in early summer and took his form up a notch when second of 5 in handicap at Chelmsford City (7f, 10/11) 43 days ago. Firmly in the picture with this return to 6f likely to suit.

Form: 2-11672

(4)

Holkham Bay²⁰

Age: 4| Weight: 9-2| J: Oisin Murphy| T: W J Knight| OR: 95| C| D

4/1

Is enjoying a very good year and scored at York and here in June. Posted a solid seventh of 22 in Portland at Doncaster last time so can't be ruled out.

Form: 221107

(1)

Rohaan¹³

Age: 6| Weight: 9-1| J: T P Queally| T: P D Evans| OR: 94| CD

4/1

Smart sprinter and a 5-time C&D winner, including in this 12 months ago. Failed to confirm earlier promise when nineteenth of 25 in Ayr Gold Cup last time out but he's worth another chance back here.

Form: 808030

(6)

Baradar^b,t⁶

Age: 6| Weight: 9-1| J: Rossa Ryan| T: G Boughey| OR: 94| C

10/1

Course winner who got back on track in first-time blinkers when fourth of 11 in handicap at Ripon (6f, good to soft) 6 days ago. Must enter calculations.

Form: 707074

(3)

Ferrous²⁷

Age: 4| Weight: 9-1| J: Tom Marquand| T: J Channon| OR: 94| BF| D

14/1

Has taken his form up a level this term, going in at Wolverhampton and Kempton. Fair fifth of 12 back at Kempton (6f) 27 days ago so he can't be discounted.

Form: 113005

(5)

Wodao^t²⁰

Age: 4| Weight: 9-0| J: William Carver⁽³⁾| T: J A Osborne| OR: 93

66/1

Listed winner in Ireland for Donnacha O'Brien but he failed to build on a good Goodwood third for his new yard in the Portland at Doncaster, no impression and well held. Needs to take a big step forward.

Form: 897-830

(2)

Garfield Shadow²⁰

Age: 3| Weight: 8-13| J: O J Orr| T: R A Fahey| OR: 93| D

17/2

Enhanced his good strike rate from the front at Chester (6f) in July and ran a cracker when third of 17 in handicap at Leopardstown (7f, good) 20 days ago. Can go well again nudged up 1 lb.

Form: 140133

(7)

Wobwobwob^v⁶

Age: 6| Weight: 8-9| J: Amie Waugh⁽³⁾| T: A Keatley| OR: 88| D

14/1

Scored at Thirsk in May and comes here in good nick, seventh of 12 in handicap (6/1) at Haydock (6f, heavy) 6 days ago when doing too much too soon. Needs considering.

Form: 100657

(10)

Palmar Bay⁵³

Age: 3| Weight: 8-7| J: Edward Greatrex| T: R M Beckett| OR: 87| D

14/1

Back to winning ways at Windsor in July but he came in last of 16 in handicap there (6f, good to firm) 53 days ago. Has a bit to prove now.

Form: 13-9610

Forecasts

Never So Brave (11/4), Holkham Bay (4/1), Rohaan (4/1), Garfield Shadow (17/2), Baradar (10/1), Commanche Falls (11/1), Ferrous (14/1), Palmar Bay (14/1), Wobwobwob (14/1), Wodao (66/1)

This is wide open but Richard Fahey's GARFIELD SHADOW signalled he's ready to go in again when a fine third at Leopardstown last time so edges the vote. Never So Brave promises to be suited by this drop back to 6f and could emerge as the main danger, although handily-weighted duo Rohaan and Baradar can also have a say. Top-weight Commanche Falls completes the shortlist.