15:00 Ascot

Saturday 25 July 2020

All12:4013:1513:5014:2515:0015:3516:1016:4517:20

Betfred 'Nifty Fifty' Handicap (Str)

Off time: 15:02 | Winning time: 1m 40.45s

(5)

Johan⁴³

Age: 3| Weight: 9-7| J: Tom Marquand| T: W J Haggas| OR: 96| D

16/5

Improving sort, winning three of his five starts and despite the neck margin, quite a comfortable winner at Newbury last month. Has gone up 8lb for that success, but surprise if that were to prove his limit.

Form: 4116-1

(8)

Tsar²¹

Age: 3| Weight: 9-5| J: L Dettori| T: J & T Gosden| OR: 94| D

9/4

Improved, and clear of the rest, when 4¾L second to Lord Campari at Newbury on return, and back to winning ways with an easy win in handicap company at Yarmouth. Raised 6lb for that, which looks eminently fair.

Form: 41-21

(4)

Dance Fever²⁷

Age: 3| Weight: 9-2| J: A Kirby| T: C G Cox| OR: 91

10/1

Won all three starts as a 2-y-o, and matched the pick of that form when a staying-on 1¾L fourth of 8 to Overwrite in a 1m handicap at Windsor last time. Should remain competitive from an unchanged mark.

Form: 111-4

(3)

Glasvegas^b³⁷

Age: 3| Weight: 9-1| J: Oisin Murphy| T: K Dalgleish| OR: 90

33/1

Winner over sprint trips twice last year, but well held in two starts this season, the latest when wearing first-time blinkers in the Britannia Handicap over C&D last month. Plenty to prove.

Form: 3810-00

(1)

Tell Me All²⁷

Age: 3| Weight: 9-1| J: L Morris| T: Sir Mark Prescott| OR: 90| D

14/1

Ayr nursery winner who wasn't disgraced over further on return at Newbury. Stepped up on that when 1L second of 8 to Overwrite in a 1m handicap at Windsor last time, and closely matched with Dance Fever on 1lb worse terms. Stiff test should suit.

Form: 1218-42

(7)

Evening Sun²⁹

Age: 3| Weight: 8-13| J: R L Moore| T: H & R Charlton| OR: 88

11/4

Better effort in 7f novices last year when second to King Leonidas at Newcastle. Improved on that when scoring at Newmarket on return by 3½L from Lincoln Bright, and runner-up was placed in Listed company last weekend. Opening mark looks lenient.

Form: 42-1

(6)

Great Ambassador³⁷

Age: 3| Weight: 8-13| J: Harry Bentley| T: R M Beckett| OR: 88

8/1

Didn't have to improve to score at Chelmsford on final 2-y-o start, and shaped better than the result when seventh of 22 to Khaloosy in Britannia Handicap over C&D last month. Can rate higher, and folly to dismiss here.

Form: 22301-7

(2)

Ayr Harbour²⁸

Age: 3| Weight: 8-9| J: Alistair Rawlinson| T: M Appleby| OR: 84

66/1

Two wins on all-weather surfaces and almost made it three when just denied on reappearance at Newcastle. Not discredited when 2L fifth of 6 to Boccaccio on return to turf at Newmarket last time, but looks vulnerable here.

Form: 2-11525

Forecasts

Tsar (9/4), Evening Sun (11/4), Johan (16/5), Great Ambassador (8/1), Dance Fever (10/1), Tell Me All (14/1), Glasvegas (33/1), Ayr Harbour (66/1)

Some progressive three-year-olds in opposition, but most have given the handicapper a chance to re-frame their ratings, whereas EVENING SUN looks very well weighted having slammed one who went on to be placed in Listed company on his final qualifying run, and his opening mark doesn't reflect that collateral form upgrade. Tsar and Johan were both taking handicap winners last time, and both should improve further, to help offset their respective rise in the ratings.