17:25 Southwell

Wednesday 16 October 2019

All17:2517:5518:2518:5519:2519:5520:25

Sky Sports Racing On Sky 415 Handicap

Off time: 17:28 | Winning time: 1m 14.54s

(5)

Poeta Brasileiro^t⁶

Age: 4| Weight: 9-9| J: Cieren Fallon⁽³⁾| T: D H Brown| OR: 61| BF| D

15/8

Effective on all types of artificial surface; kept on under pressure when finishing 4½L third to the in-form Queen Of Kalahari over C&D last week; one for the shortlist.

Form: 535323

(3)

Montalvan^p¹⁸

Age: 3| Weight: 9-8| J: B A Curtis| T: R Fell & S Murray| OR: 61| D

7/2

Justified favouritism when scoring over this trip at Ripon (6f, good) in July; less effective since and steps onto the Fibresand (and the AW generally for that matter) for the very first time tonight.

Form: 147746

(4)

Round The Island²¹

Age: 6| Weight: 9-7| J: Phil Dennis| T: R M Whitaker| OR: 59| D

7/1

3lb higher than when beating Atletico by a head at Pontefract (6f, good to firm) on his penultimate start; sole previous visit to Southwell came over 7f in May 2018 (fifth of seven); has won on Tapeta at Newcastle.

Form: 855313

(2)

Normal Equilibrium³⁵

Age: 9| Weight: 9-5| J: Gabriele Malune⁽³⁾| T: I Furtado| OR: 57

25/1

On a long losing run; finished last of 18 (66-1) in a Class 4 handicap at Doncaster (5f, good to firm) last month; it's difficult to identify that many positive aspects to his overall form profile; stablemate of Scandinavian Lady and Ghost Buy.

Form: 354740

(7)

Scandinavian Lady⁵

Age: 3| Weight: 9-4| J: T Hamilton| T: I Furtado| OR: 57| D

9/2

Won over this trip on handicap debut at Newcastle in January; has run consistently since returning from a seven-month plus break - beaten just over 4L (fifth) by Axe Axelrod at Newcastle last week; interesting on Fibresand debut.

Form: 00-1545

(8)

Ghost Buy^t¹¹⁰

Age: 3| Weight: 9-4| J: D C Costello| T: I Furtado| OR: 57WS

12/1

Eight-race maiden; has been gelded and had wind surgery since finishing third to Victory Rose (Montalvan second) in a Class 6 handicap at Doncaster (6f, good) in June; one of three declared runners for Ivan Furtado.

Form: 975553

(1)

Murqaab¹²

Age: 3| Weight: 9-3| J: Lewis Edmunds| T: J Balding| OR: 56| D

33/1

Selling winner earlier in the year at Thirsk (6f) for David O'Meara (sold out of that race for £12,000); poor since joining John Balding and undergoing wind surgery; soundly beaten over C&D 12 days ago.

Form: 187009

(6)

Vallarta¹⁶

Age: 9| Weight: 8-13| J: J P Sullivan| T: Mrs R Carr| OR: 51| CD

11/1

Back to winning ways in the mud at Hamilton (6f, heavy) just over a fortnight ago, beating stablemate Cosmic Chatter by 3L; 6lb higher in the weights tonight; has historic winning form on Fibresand (March 2015); key player.

Form: 040361

Forecasts

Poeta Brasileiro (15/8), Montalvan (7/2), Scandinavian Lady (9/2), Round The Island (7/1), Vallarta (11/1), Ghost Buy (12/1), Normal Equilibrium (25/1), Murqaab (33/1)

Ivan Furtado is well represented, with the veteran Normal Equilibrium accompanying the three-year-old's Ghost Buy and the more interesting Scandinavian Lady. However, the pair to concentrate upon are most likely Poeta Brasileiro who bumped into a progressive rival over C&D last week and the recent Hamilton scorer VALLARTA. The selection boasts historic Fibresand winning form (March 2015) and there's a definite school of thought which would imply that he's still feasibly weighted despite a subsequent 6lb rise.