Like A Butterfly Novice Chase (Grade 3)

Off time: 16:37 | Winning time: 5m 3.70s

Brahma Bull⁴⁴

Age: 8| Weight: 11-5| J: Paul Townend| T: W P Mullins| C

15/8

Facile winner at this track on chase debut back in May, and turned over Robin De Carlow at Killarney (3m; good) most recently. Drop back in trip is a worry, but has only had the nine starts and still has potential.

Form: 196/121

Dandy Mag⁶⁶

Age: 6| Weight: 11-2| J: D J Mullins| T: W P Mullins

13/2

Came back from over two years off the track to win a good quality beginners chase at the Galway Festival (2m6f; good) in August. Given time since then to get over that race, and she could be anything.

Form: 02613/1

Moon Over Germany⁴⁰

Age: 8| Weight: 11-2| J: Rachael Blackmore| T: H De Bromhead| OR: 153

9/4

Justified short-priced favouritism with the minimum of fuss on seasonal return at Ballinrobe (2m1f; soft) in August. That form has since been franked by the second. Exciting prospect for the coming season and may be the one to beat.

Form: 2741-41

Put The Kettle On²⁹

Age: 5| Weight: 11-1| J: R M Power| T: H De Bromhead| OR: 133| CD

6/1

Won over C&D in July, and is now chasing a five-timer (hat-trick over fences). This is a step up in grade though, and she doesn't look particularly well-treated on these terms. Place claims at best.

Form: 3-31111

Robin De Carlow⁴⁴

Age: 6| Weight: 10-12| J: Danny Mullins| T: W P Mullins| BF| D

5/1

Smart mare, but things haven't gone to plan the last twice. She was pulled-up at Galway (2m2f; good), and then failed to justify odds-on favouritism at Killarney (3m; good) when second to Brahma Bull last time out. Needs to bounce back.

Form: 1F-11P2

Grey Waters⁶

Age: 5| Weight: 10-9| J: J J Slevin| T: J P O'Brien| OR: 119

33/1

Patchy record over the larger obstacles, including when unseating her rider most recently. Receives weight all round, but she is too risky a proposition to recommend in this competitive event. Doesn't have the class that some of her rivals possess.

Form: 2-PP12U

Non-Runners

Champagne Classic²³¹

Weight: 11-2| Age: 8

T: G Elliott J: Jack Kennedy

Forecasts

Brahma Bull (15/8), Moon Over Germany (9/4), Champagne Classic (5/2), Robin De Carlow (5/1), Put The Kettle On (6/1), Dandy Mag (13/2), Grey Waters (33/1)

A fascinating renewal of a contest which has been won by some smart sorts down the years including Le Richebourg (2018), Rathvinden (2017) and Limestone Lad (2000). The unknown quantity in this field is without doubt Dandy Mag who defied a monster absence to win on his chase debut in August. He is unlikely to be affected by the bounce factor given he has had 66 days to recover. For win purposes, it is hard to split Champagne Classic and MOON OVER GERMANY. The former brings graded novice chase form to the table and is likely to be the better horse in the future. However, the latter is narrowly preferred given he is the more proven sort over fences and has race fitness on his side.