Irish Lotto At totesport.com Conditions Stakes

Off time: 18:53 | Winning time: 1m 10.61s

(1)

Royal Birth^t¹⁶

Age: 8| Weight: 9-11| J: P J McDonald| T: S C Williams| OR: 99| C

10/1

Showed determination to win over 5f here in mid-September but the runner up did little for the form when finishing last in a Class 3 handicap at Leicester earlier this week and the fact he's never won over 6f is a big concern. The betting can guide.

Form: 010901

(2)

Tropics^h⁴³

Age: 11| Weight: 9-11| J: Joey Haynes| T: D K Ivory| OR: 107| CD

7/2

Back to form lately and was 1¼L too good for Royal Birth over 5f here in June; the weights suggest it'll be closer this time but he's still respected and is more proven over 6f than his old rival. Well worth considering.

Form: 348213

(3)

Harry's Bar¹⁶

Age: 4| Weight: 9-7| J: J P Spencer| T: J R Fanshawe| OR: 91| C

7/4

Won three times over 5f in the summer and is still open to improvement. Held by Royal Birth here last time out but possible he gave the leaders too much start on that occasion. The return to 6f will help and the gelding could easily bounce back.

Form: 851113

(5)

Lancelot Du Lac^h⁴²

Age: 9| Weight: 9-7| J: M Dwyer| T: D K Ivory| OR: 95| CD

7/1

Faced stiff tests this season but retains plenty of ability and weighted to reverse Wolverhampton form with Tropics on these terms. His yard has been back among winners in the last fortnight and the gelding is considered a live contender here.

Form: 00-9460

(4)

Peggie Sue²⁸

Age: 4| Weight: 9-2| J: Toby Eley| T: A West| OR: 83| D

33/1

2-7 on the AW and effective when delivered on the back of a strong pace. However, she's got a lot to find on the official figures and would be getting lumps of weight if this were a handicap. Would be a surprise winner.

Form: 516520

(6)

Shimmering Dawn⁹

Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: Tom Marquand| T: J Tate| OR: 91| CD

9/4

A progressive filly who has enjoyed a profitable campaign with three wins (two over C&D) since April; was also a close second in a Class 2 handicap here last week, so dangerous to dismiss. Fillies allowance gives her a good chance at the weights.

Form: 5-11102

Forecasts

Harry's Bar (7/4), Shimmering Dawn (9/4), Tropics (7/2), Lancelot Du Lac (7/1), Royal Birth (10/1), Peggie Sue (33/1)

A tight one to call as the resurgent Tropics has bounced back with a vengeance but will do well to confirm previous form with stablemate LANCELOT DU LAC on these terms. And it's the latter, who already was three course wins to his name, who is the preferred suggestion on this occasion. Shimmering Dawn also makes plenty of appeal given that she gets weight from the rest and is another who likes this particular course. Harry's BarRoyal Birth over this longer trip.