15:35 Curragh

Sunday 15 September 2019

All13:2013:5514:2515:0015:3516:1016:5017:2518:00

Goffs Vincent O'Brien National Stakes (Group 1)

Off time: 15:35 | Winning time: 1m 21.82s

(3)

Arizona²⁸

Age: 2| Weight: 9-3| J: D O'Brien| T: A P O'Brien| OR: 108| C

5/1

Bolted up here on his second start before beating Threat in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot, and that race has worked out very well since. Unsuited by soft ground in the Prix Morny last time, and no surprise to see him bounce back.

Form: 2114

(5)

Armory²³

Age: 2| Weight: 9-3| J: R L Moore| T: A P O'Brien| OR: 110| CD

10/3

Has won his last three, including the Tyros Stakes at Leopardstown, and the Futurity over C&D last time, beating Rebel Tale. Appears to be the trainer's number one based on riding arrangements, and clearly has more to offer.

Form: 3111

(2)

Geometrical²³

Age: 2| Weight: 9-3| J: K J Manning| T: J S Bolger| OR: 105

16/1

His 5½L defeat of Mogul in a Gowran maiden last month reads well now, and he improved again when 1¾L third of 8 to Armory in the Futurity Stakes over C&D last time. Not easy to see him turning that form around, however.

Form: 0213

(8)

Iberia²³

Age: 2| Weight: 9-3| J: J A Heffernan| T: A P O'Brien| CD

20/1

Won at the first time of asking over C&D, but only seventh of 8 to Armory in the Futurity Stakes here last time, and while he was hampered in the closing stages, he was already beaten at the time.

Form: 17

(7)

Monoski²⁵

Age: 2| Weight: 9-3| J: J Fanning| T: C & M Johnston| OR: 93| BF

50/1

Hasn't progressed since winning by 6L at Pontefract in the spring, and beaten in a nursery at York last time. That wasn't a bad effort, but it does expose his vulnerability at Pattern level.

Form: 210334

(6)

Pinatubo⁴⁷

Age: 2| Weight: 9-3| J: W Buick| T: C Appleby| OR: 120| D

1/3

Unbeaten in four starts, and goes from strength to strength, running out a hugely impressive 5L winner of the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood last time. That form is exceptionally strong, and he will be very hard to beat once more.

Form: 1111

(4)

Roman Turbo²³

Age: 2| Weight: 9-3| J: Ronan Whelan| T: M Halford| OR: 104| C

16/1

It was a fairly weak renewal of the Anglesey Stakes her won over an extended 6f here in July, and he probably ran to a higher level when fourth to Armory in the Futurity over C&D last time. That puts his task here in context.

Form: 114

(1)

Toronto²³

Age: 2| Weight: 9-3| J: M C Hussey| T: A P O'Brien| OR: 96

50/1

Useful sort, but he's essentially been used as a pacemaker for Armory in his last two races, and likely to play a similar role here, which means he's best left alone for betting purposes.

Form: 5128

Forecasts

Pinatubo (1/3), Armory (10/3), Arizona (5/1), Geometrical (16/1), Roman Turbo (16/1), Iberia (20/1), Monoski (50/1), Toronto (50/1)

Armory is the Aidan O'Brien number one on paper, but it could well be that Arizona is ignored as a result, and he would have solid place claims on the form of his Coventry Stakes win. That may all be moot if PINATUBO shows up in the same form he was at Goodwood, however, and on his Vintage Stakes romp he is head and shoulders above his contemporaries.