17:25 Southwell

Tuesday 9 April 2019

All14:2014:5015:2015:5016:2016:5017:25

Toalsbet Mares' Standard NH Flat Race (Conditional Jockeys & Amateur Riders)

Off time: 17:25 | Winning time: 3m 52.00s

Lunar Baby⁵²

Age: 4| Weight: 10-13| J: Jonjo O'Neill Jr.⁽³⁾| T: J & A O'Neill| OR: 106

7/4

Winner on debut at Warwick before looking a bit one paced at Ascot last time. This extra couple of furlongs should help but once again, has work to do under a penalty. Yard 14% with their bumper runners here.

Form: 17

Beautiful Drama

Age: 5| Weight: 10-12| J: Harry Reed⁽³⁾| T: J C McConnell

9/1

Irish raider, but yard 3-8 in England with their bumper runners, so of interest on that alone. Bred to want a trip in time but good jockey booking, and looks one of the more likely newcomers.

Form:

Dylan's Sea Song³⁹

Age: 5| Weight: 10-12| J: Ben Hicks⁽⁷⁾| T: M D I Usher

9/1

Showed little on debut but ran a cracker (at 100/1) when second at Newbury, looking the winner for a stride or two. Solid chance if that form is to be believed, but a note of caution is advised, given she wasn't fancied there.

Form: 82

Fricka¹⁰⁴

Age: 6| Weight: 10-12| J: Graham Carson⁽¹⁰⁾| T: A Carson

16/1

Another to improve plenty from first run to second, beaten a neck (at 50/1) at Huntingdon. No great shakes on pedigree but the form of last race looks believable, so if fit after a break, has chances.

Form: 62

Henrietta Bell³⁹

Age: 6| Weight: 10-12| J: Mr Jamie Neild⁽⁷⁾| T: H Whittington| OR: 107

3/1

Ran fourth on debut behind the useful Briery Express, and improved a little on that when third at Newbury last month. Dam related to a few hurdles/chase winners and yard 2-12 with their bumper runners here, so has chances.

Form: 2-43

La Hulpe

Age: 5| Weight: 10-12| J: C Brace⁽⁷⁾| T: S Thomas

20/1

Cost €55,000 as a yearling, classy pedigree (half-sister to Grade 1 winner Whisper) and on that, is clearly of interest, but yard just 1-51 in bumpers to date and on that, a note of caution is advised.

Form:

My Mums Posh

Age: 5| Weight: 10-12| J: Ross Chapman| T: P D Niven

33/1

Yard rarely have runners in these events but are 2-6 when they do, so worth a second look on that alone. Bred to stay well though, and may not find this enough of a test, but worth a look in the market all the same.

Form:

Plan At The Minute¹⁰⁰

Age: 6| Weight: 10-12| J: Max Kendrick⁽⁵⁾| T: P W Middleton

16/1

Another yard that don't run too many in bumpers (1-7 last five years), this one a point-to-point winner in soft ground at Dromahane in December. Likely to want more of a test than this, and others preferred.

Form: 2-F1

Roaring Fury²⁰

Age: 5| Weight: 10-12| J: Mr Eddie Edge⁽¹⁰⁾| T: Miss A Murphy

33/1

Has run to a similar level all three starts, although her second at Market Rasen last time came in a race run at a crawl. Needs a bit more here. and yard just 2-32 in bumpers to date.

Form: 542

Emmpressive Lady^p1,t1³⁰

Age: 4| Weight: 10-6| J: Mitchell Bastyan⁽⁵⁾| T: S Flook

25/1

€5,500 purchase, makes some appeal on pedigree but yard not known for bumper winners and with the worry of a tongue tie and cheekpieces on for her Rules debut, she's best watched.

Form: 3

It's Probably Me

Age: 4| Weight: 10-6| J: R Patrick⁽³⁾| T: H D Daly

16/1

Makes plenty of appeal on breeding, dam related to a few useful winners and should be up to winning a race down the line, but yard's tend to find their own feet as they go, and are 0-9 in bumpers here.

Form:

Konigin Ara

Age: 4| Weight: 10-6| J: Tristan Durrell⁽⁷⁾| T: D Skelton

25/1

€8,500 purchase as a yearling, related to winners in Germany and Belgium and might have a bit more natural speed that a few of these. Yard 2-22 in bumpers here but always to be respected.

Form:

Misu Bula

Age: 4| Weight: 10-6| J: Thomas Dowson⁽³⁾| T: P A Kirby

16/1

Makes appeal on pedigree, being a half-sister to 2m hurdle winner Bulas Belle and point winner Taylormade Boy; speed on the dam's side and yard are 3-14 with their bumper runners here. Market move might be interesting.

Form:

Non-Runners

Tybielass¹⁹

Weight: 10-6| Age: 4

T: B J Llewellyn J: C J Todd

Forecasts

Lunar Baby (7/4), Henrietta Bell (3/1), Dylan's Sea Song (9/1), Beautiful Drama (9/1), It's Probably Me (16/1), Fricka (16/1), Misu Bula (16/1), Plan At The Minute (16/1), La Hulpe (20/1), Konigin Ara (25/1), Emmpressive Lady (25/1), Tybielass (25/1), Roaring Fury (33/1), My Mums Posh (33/1)

Those that seem to have the best form all put up improved efforts at huge prices last time, so this is a race to treat with kid gloves. La Hulpe makes plenty of appeal on pedigree but the record of her trainer in this sphere is offputting and she may be one for another day. KONIGIN ARA might enjoy a speed test on her debut and just about gets the vote for a yard that do well here. Beautiful Drama comes over from Ireland and with her yard's good record in bumpers on these shores, has to be considered. Henrietta Bell may do best of those that have raced.