888Sport Pendil Novices' Chase (Grade 2)

Off time: 13:50 | Winning time: 5m 2.60s

Bags Groove^t⁵⁹

Age: 8| Weight: 11-5| J: N D Fehily| T: H Fry| OR: 153| CD

7/4

Course winner here over hurdles and won three of first four over fences including Wincanton Grade Two before underperforming here in 3m Grade One on Boxing Day. That not his true form but back over this trip he is a danger to all despite penalty.

Form: 0-21115

Good Man Pat¹⁰

Age: 6| Weight: 11-0| J: Wayne Hutchinson| T: A King| OR: 139| D

5/1

Dual hurdle winner gained first chase success latest at Plumpton over 2m3½f. Still open to more improvement over fences but all three wins so far on soft ground so conditions here a question mark.

Form: 411P-31

Secret Investor^t⁴²

Age: 7| Weight: 11-0| J: H Cobden| T: P F Nicholls| OR: 145| C

11/10

Grade Two winning novice hurdler was 9L second to Bags Groove earlier this season on chase bow but that rival having third chase race. Second since in small field race behind smart rival so yet to win a chase but trainer won 10 of last 13 renewals.

Form: 21-1122

Castafiore^p³⁵

Age: 6| Weight: 10-12| J: Paul O'Brien| T: C E Longsdon| OR: 139| D

10/1

Won at Wincanton two starts back before landing huge upset in Haydock Grade Two over 2m4f (28/1) latest. No fluke about that performance however so merits genuine respect here although 5lb penalty largely offsets mares allowance.

Form: 6-04411

Forecasts

Secret Investor (11/10), Bags Groove (7/4), Good Man Pat (5/1), Castafiore (10/1)

There are few races in the NH calendar where a trainer is as dominant as Paul Nicholls is in this race. He has won 10 of the last 13 renewals including last year with Cyrname who is now the highest rated horse in training and opposing his SECRET INVESTOR therefore makes little sense. He has 9L to make up with Bags Groove but is 5lb better off this time and that rival had an experience edge last time they clashed. Harry Fry's novice flopped in the Kauto Star but that was the best novice chase run this season so he is expected to prove a different proposition entirely here. Castafiore's Haydock win can't be underestimated despite her big odds that day.