15:50 Lingfield

Monday 18 February 2019

All13:4514:1514:4515:1515:5016:2516:55

tipstars.tips Surrey National Handicap Chase

Off time: 15:50 | Winning time: 8m 5.9s

Pearl Swan^b,t⁴³

Age: 11| Weight: 12-0| J: James Bowen| T: P & M Bowen| OR: 127

16/1

Form this season has been moderate and, despite a slightly improved effort last time, this looks a stiff ask under top weight.

Form: 11/987-3

The Winkler^p,t³²

Age: 10| Weight: 12-0| J: Jonjo O'Neill Jr.⁽⁵⁾| T: Miss Kelly Morgan| OR: 127

25/1

Last of three finishers (beaten 54l) here on his debut for his current yard and comes into this needs to find plenty to quickly banish that effort to memory. Others preferred at present.

Form: 42P5-43

Socksy^p,t⁵³

Age: 8| Weight: 11-12| J: C Brace⁽⁷⁾| T: F O'Brien| OR: 125

16/1

last two starts have been highly encouraging and show signs that the mare still has a bit to offer. However, the handicapper has taken note and put her up 1lb for her latest effort. Needs a career best here.

Form: 427-922

Le Reve^b¹⁶

Age: 11| Weight: 11-12| J: Maxime Tissier⁽⁵⁾| T: L Wadham| OR: 125

20/1

All previous wins have been gained on right handed courses and the gelding, despite being dangerously well handicapped, has been out of form in a limited number of starts lately. Hard to recommend at present.

Form: U9P/38P

Ballymalin⁵⁰

Age: 9| Weight: 11-9| J: Thomas Bellamy| T: N & W Twiston-Davies| OR: 122

8/1

Good effort latest at Bangor latest hinted as a return to form. Never won over a trip this far up to press but has to be respected on last season's effort when placed in the Midlands National. One for the shortlist.

Form: 3F38-05

Knockanrawley^p⁷³

Age: 11| Weight: 11-9| J: David Bass| T: K Bailey & M Nicholls| OR: 122| BF

16/1

Not won since December 2014 and has to be a concern that he's only raced once since last April (when pulled up at Sandown last month). Has claims on the pick of his past efforts. Big risk for win only betting though.

Form: 3P553-P

Bob Ford²³

Age: 12| Weight: 11-6| J: Lee Edwards| T: A Ralph| OR: 119

12/1

Been around a few yards since winning a veterans race at Chepstow almost fifteen months ago but posted a reasonable effort at Uttoxeter last time. Up to a more appropriate trip here. Place claims once more if able to run to his best.

Form: FPP-852

Greyed A³⁹

Age: 8| Weight: 11-3| J: G Sheehan| T: Dr R D P Newland| OR: 116| C

7/1

Stays this sort of trip and has a previous course win to his name. On a reasonable mark but the balance of form suggest he could also do with a little more leniency.

Form: 1P21-24

Kilcullen Flem^p⁶⁴

Age: 9| Weight: 11-2| J: Thomas Dowson⁽³⁾| T: P A Kirby| OR: 115

13/2

Stays well and on a fair mark. Also handles the predicted ground, so should find conditions to his liking. Races from the same mark as he was on when winning an amateur riders race at Plumpton last year, but needs to better his latest efforts.

Form: P134-P4

Royal Tara³¹

Age: 10| Weight: 11-2| J: Aidan Coleman| T: Miss V Williams| OR: 115

6/1

Out muscled by a surprise winner at Chepstow latest but ran respectably in the process. Yet to win over fences, so possible he's slipped under the radar as far as handicapping goes. Worth a betting check considering the stable's record with stayers.

Form: 582-232

Court Frontier^p⁴⁸

Age: 11| Weight: 11-1| J: T J O'Brien| T: Christian Williams| OR: 114

10/1

Dropping to a very attractive mark recent form suggests the gelding isn't one to rely upon too heavily in a finish. Finished very tired last couple of times and may need even more help from the handicapper.

Form: 7-0U355

Weststreet²⁸

Age: 9| Weight: 11-0| J: Tom Cannon| T: O Sherwood| OR: 113

12/1

Posted a couple of respectable efforts towards the end of last year but weakened tamely in ordinary company at Warwick in January. Hard to see him exploiting his handy rating if running to that level again.

Form: 22P/P38

Big Meadow^p,t1⁴³

Age: 8| Weight: 10-13| J: Bryony Frost| T: N B King| OR: 112

11/1

Acts on heavy ground and usually goes well at this time of year. However, he was below par in two starts last month and looks opposable despite being on a winning mark.

Form: 344-3U5

Frankly Speaking⁵¹

Age: 9| Weight: 10-11| J: Benjamin Poste| T: T Symonds| OR: 110

12/1

Unexposed chaser but he was the last of eight finishers at Newbury in December, which was a poor effort and leaves him with a lot to prove over fences at the present time.

Form: 422-748

Lac Sacre^b,t⁴³

Age: 10| Weight: 10-4| J: J E Moore| T: J L Flint| OR: 103

20/1

Finished 13l adrift of Pearl Swan latest but is better than the bare form suggests and might just be a lot sharper for the run. Just 1lb above his only previous winning mark over fences and dangerous to underestimate in a race full of pitfalls.

Form: 2242-44

Cap Horner³⁵

Age: 7| Weight: 10-3| J: J McGrath| T: J W Mullins| OR: 102| C

14/1

Lost his way since winning at Taunton last march and is another that has failed to capitalise on a drop in the ratings. Heavy ground would also be a concern.

Form: 3-75P87

Black Narcissus^b,t²⁹

Age: 10| Weight: 10-0| J: T Scudamore| T: Alexandra Dunn| OR: 98

20/1

Won a small field handicap (3m2f, soft) at Sedgefield last march but only raced twice since. Disappointed both times and not hard to oppose from out of the weights here.

Form: 5021P-9

Forecasts

Royal Tara (6/1), Kilcullen Flem (13/2), Greyed A (7/1), Ballymalin (8/1), Court Frontier (10/1), Big Meadow (11/1), Weststreet (12/1), Bob Ford (12/1), Frankly Speaking (12/1), Cap Horner (14/1), Socksy (16/1), Knockanrawley (16/1), Pearl Swan (16/1), Le Reve (20/1), Black Narcissus (20/1), Lac Sacre (20/1), The Winkler (25/1)

A tough one to call as consistency isn't the strong point of many. With that in mind, it may be worth chancing that BALLYMALIN can build on what was a reasonable effort at Bangor last time. Lac Sacre has form which ties in with the selection and would be dangerous to underestimate from a very lenient mark, while Royal Tara and Bob ford are a couple of others with reasonable claims at the weights.