14:35 Warwick

Monday 31 December 2018

All12:2512:5513:3014:0014:3515:0515:35

LPS Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle

Off time: 14:35 | Winning time: 6m 34.80s

Optimistic Bias⁴²⁴

Age: 9| Weight: 12-0| J: Alexander Thorne⁽³⁾| T: H J Evans| OR: 121

16/1

Landed a hat-trick of wins over fences during 2017 (3m-3m3f); off the track for 13 months since competing in the 2017 Durham National; first hurdles start since October 2016 (feasibly handicapped).

Form: 31/1106-

Oxford Blu^p,t³⁴

Age: 4| Weight: 11-12| J: Callum McKinnes⁽¹⁰⁾| T: O Murphy| OR: 119

14/1

Has struggled since returning from wind surgery and fitted with a tongue-tie; debatable as to whether or not he can ever recapture his peak form from late 2017; riders 10lb claim helpful; stablemate of After Aspen.

Form: 32P0-76

Perfect Pirate^b1³⁶

Age: 6| Weight: 11-10| J: C Brace⁽⁵⁾| T: B Pauling| OR: 117

10/1

Won over fences off an 8lb higher mark at Towcester (2m4f) in November 2017, but badly out of sorts for almost the entire calendar year in 2018; blinkers added seeking some sparkle over hurdles; stablemate of Savanna Roar.

Form: 1840-0P

Captain Cargo⁵²

Age: 6| Weight: 11-9| J: R Patrick| T: Mrs Caroline Bailey| OR: 116

7/1

Lightly-raced and open to further improvement on handicap debut; 12/1 when a staying on 1½L second to De Name Evades Me (third-placed Worthy Farm has won since) in a novices' event over C&D last month; key player.

Form: 55-32

Quick Pick²⁰

Age: 7| Weight: 11-9| J: Rex Dingle⁽³⁾| T: J Candlish| OR: 116

11/2

Dual Sedgefield scorer (2m4f, soft) around this time 12 months ago; stamina a slight doubt over this extended 3m2f trip, albeit offered a fraction more promise (fourth) at Uttoxeter recently.

Form: 1930-P4

After Aspen^b³⁰

Age: 8| Weight: 11-8| J: Lewis Stones⁽⁸⁾| T: O Murphy| OR: 115

25/1

Heavy ground winner at Lingfield (2m7f) in February and a case can be made from a lower mark (if factoring in the 8lb claim of Lewis Stones); not so effective over fences lately; stablemate of Oxford Blu.

Form: 40134-P

Sackett¹⁸

Age: 7| Weight: 11-7| J: Bryony Frost| T: N B King| OR: 114

8/1

5lb higher than when winning by 2L from No Hiding Place at Uttoxeter (2m7f+, good) in November; chasing was tried at Taunton recently (shelved for now); couldn't be dismissed.

Form: 23-7129

Marley Firth^b1¹³

Age: 6| Weight: 11-6| J: William Marshall⁽¹⁰⁾| T: D Skelton| OR: 113| BF

8/1

An early faller when well supported up at Newcastle (2m4f) on his penultimate start, and seemingly had that experience in mind when bombing out at Catterick latest; switched back to hurdles with headgear added seeking a confidence booster.

Form: 355-9FP

Sunnytahliateigan³⁰

Age: 6| Weight: 11-5| J: Edward Austin⁽⁸⁾| T: Ian Williams| OR: 112| BF

11/2

A beaten favourite on quick ground at Doncaster (2m3f+) recently, although could still have more improvement in the locker; has stamina on the dam side, so worth a try over a longer trip; not discounted.

Form: 4627-33

Savanna Roar³¹

Age: 5| Weight: 11-3| J: Hugh Nugent⁽³⁾| T: B Pauling| OR: 110

25/1

0-3 over hurdles, but is upped noticeably in trip for his handicap debut; brother to the 2m5f hurdle/3m chase winner Always Lion; stablemate of Perfect Pirate.

Form: 798-550

Gamain^b¹⁰¹

Age: 9| Weight: 11-2| J: Chester Williams⁽³⁾| T: Mrs J Williams| OR: 109| D

20/1

In excellent shape over 3m-3m1f in early 2018 (for Nick Williams) and fully proven with cut underfoot; below that level when last seen competitively over 100 days ago; early days for writing off just yet.

Form: 5321-4P

Falcons Fall^b1²³

Age: 7| Weight: 11-0| J: Lorcan Williams| T: T Symonds| OR: 107

16/1

Posted a strong staying effort when scoring over an extended 2m7f at Chepstow in March 2017 (soft). However, dismal since and dropping like a stone in the weights; blinkers applied seeking an upturn in fortunes.

Form: 1/P9P7-P

Mogestic⁴⁷

Age: 9| Weight: 10-13| J: Daniel Sansom⁽³⁾| T: J W Mullins| OR: 106| C| D

10/1

Past course winner who finished fourth in this race in 2016 (beaten in excess of 15L); stays well and sits just 4lb above his last winning mark; makes more appeal than some; holds an outside place shout.

Form: 5/2-1155

Mighty Vic^t²⁴

Age: 10| Weight: 10-10| J: Ben Godfrey⁽⁷⁾| T: Miss S Smith| OR: 103

50/1

Irish PTP winner (November 2014); didn't race under rules until earlier this year (aged 10) and has hardly charted a progressive path since; look elsewhere.

Form: 1/3660-P

His Dream⁶²

Age: 5| Weight: 10-7| J: Jonjo O'Neill Jr.⁽³⁾| T: J & A O'Neill| OR: 100

8/1

Stratford winner in August (2m6f); given a short break since a couple of turgid efforts during the month of October (presumably something was amiss); risky proposition despite his place near the foot of the weights.

Form: 7137PP

Forecasts

Quick Pick (11/2), Sunnytahliateigan (11/2), Captain Cargo (7/1), His Dream (8/1), Sackett (8/1), Marley Firth (8/1), Perfect Pirate (10/1), Mogestic (10/1), Oxford Blu (14/1), Falcons Fall (16/1), Optimistic Bias (16/1), Gamain (20/1), After Aspen (25/1), Savanna Roar (25/1), Mighty Vic (50/1)

The majority of this rather sizeable field are much of a muchness with consistency not figuring overly high in their respective list of attributes. The likes of After Aspen, Sackett and Marley Firth could prove suited by the switch back from fences. Sunnytahliateigan is worth a try over this longer trip (has stamina on his dam side), whilst His Dream is surely better than he has demonstrated lately. Therefore, the sole real progressive individual in the line-up shines like the proverbial beacon. CAPTAIN CARGO should be an immensely difficult opponent for the others if able to reproduce his recent C&D second (novices') to De Name Evades Me.