12:40 Southwell

Tuesday 27 November 2018

All12:1012:4013:1013:4014:1014:4015:1015:40

Betway Maiden Stakes

Off time: 12:41 | Winning time: 2m 41.66s

(8)

Blazon²¹

Age: 5| Weight: 9-10| J: J Fanning| T: K Bailey & M Nicholls

7/2

Bumper winner who has been tried on the Flat of late and went backwards from his debut outing in that sphere last time out. Now makes his debut on a totally new surface stepping back up in trip and hard to see him taking a hand.

Form: 79

(9)

Billy Ruskin⁹⁸

Age: 3| Weight: 9-5| J: Josephine Gordon| T: K A RyanWS

12/1

Returns from wind surgery having only had a couple of career runs to face a very new experience - trying a new trip and a new surface. Hard to know what to expect and may need the run although his sire has a reasonable record here.

Form: 43

(5)

Dutch Melody²⁴

Age: 4| Weight: 9-5| J: Faye McManoman⁽⁷⁾| T: L Egerton| OR: 25

250/1

Up in trip on her first run for this yard she showed very little on the AW at Newcastle. Would need to make some major progress to figure here and that's unlikely on her Fibresand debut.

Form: 00-6

(11)

Newgate Duchess²¹

Age: 4| Weight: 9-5| J: D C Costello| T: T Coyle & K Wood| OR: 28

200/1

Has already run in sellers and claimers without much success and this test will also prove too much for her; hard to fashion a case for her chance.

Form: 6766-77

(1)

Tilsworth Sammy¹⁵

Age: 3| Weight: 9-5| J: William Cox⁽³⁾| T: J R Jenkins

33/1

Just the two starts to his name with the better of them coming here last time out over a furlong shorter trip. At least it showed he could handle the surface but would need to show a lot more to be of interest for win purposes.

Form: 03

(2)

Kaala Taara⁹³

Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: Noel Garbutt⁽³⁾| T: C Smith| OR: 15

200/1

Four runs to her name so far and she's shown very little in any of them. Now returns from a fair break to make her Fibresand debut but faces a very stiff task.

Form: 7857

(3)

Princess Harley¹²

Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: Charles Bishop| T: M Quinn| OR: 67

5/4

Still has an unwanted maiden status after 11 runs and she returns to maiden company after eight consecutive defeats in handicaps. Showed she acted on Fibresand last time with a 2nd over C&D; unlucky to bump into a big improver.

Form: 466342

(7)

Principia²¹

Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: Kevin Lundie⁽⁵⁾| T: M Appleby

4/1

Definite signs of promise on debut for this yard (one previous run in France) despite running green over a trip that looked too short. Now switches to Fibresand (up in trip) for a yard that do well here; by a sire with a fair record on the surface.

Form: 84

(4)

Rare¹¹

Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: Edward Greatrex| T: A Watson| OR: 70

4/1

Looked to be going the wrong way with Sir Michael Stoute including on handicap debut and didn't run any better on her first run for this yard; looked a hard ride. Now switched to Fibresand by a sire that does well here; one to have doubts about.

Form: 23563

Non-Runners

(10)

Lord Digby¹¹

Weight: 9-5| Age: 3

T: A West J: P Aspell

(6)

Goldfox Girl¹⁵

Weight: 9-0| Age: 3

T: M Appleby J: A Mullen

Forecasts

Princess Harley (5/4), Blazon (7/2), Principia (4/1), Rare (4/1), Goldfox Girl (10/1), Billy Ruskin (12/1), Tilsworth Sammy (33/1), Lord Digby (66/1), Kaala Taara (200/1), Newgate Duchess (200/1), Dutch Melody (250/1)

The obvious one here is Rare although she can hardly be said to be progressing and looked a hard ride on the Polytrack at Lingfield last time and whilst this isn’t a deep race she may not be one to take a short price about. It’s another Fibresand debutante who is preferred in PRINCIPIA who showed definite signs of promise on her stable/GB debut and looks sure to be suited by this step up in trip on a surface that her stable know all about. Princess Harley deserves to win a race but ran into an improver last time and that may be the case again here although she has established that she acts on this surface. Billy Ruskin and Tilsworth Sammy are two others that enter calculations.