13:30 Carlisle

Monday 12 November 2018

All12:5513:3014:0514:3515:1015:40

Smarkets Novices' Chase

Off time: 13:30 | Winning time: 5m 14.3s

Arctic Vodka¹⁸

Age: 6| Weight: 11-2| J: Ross Chapman⁽³⁾| T: Mrs S A Watt| D

100/1

Seemingly not at his best over hurdles since returning from a summer break; peak form at around 2m4f on deep ground; feasibly could see things happening a shade too quickly on chasing debut.

Form: 2P12-P6

Brackenmoss Rory⁵⁶⁵

Age: 6| Weight: 11-2| J: Craig Nichol| T: A C WhillansWS

200/1

12-race hurdles maiden; brother to the 2m5f-3m1f chase winner Cavers Glen, and has had wind surgery since his last start in April 2017, so reasons to be hopeful for improvement now switched to fences; that said, can't realistically be considered.

Form: 78PPP0/

Claud And Goldie⁴⁶

Age: 9| Weight: 11-2| J: Thomas Dowson⁽³⁾| T: Miss S E Forster

66/1

PTP winner in 2016 (3m, soft); not overly fluent on rules/stable debut at Perth (2m4f, good) in September when finishing in excess of 20L fourth of seven (the last to complete) to Cubomania.

Form: 172/4

Dark Valley³²⁰

Age: 8| Weight: 11-2| J: Alain Cawley| T: Micky Hammond

200/1

Made the frame in a couple of Irish PTP's (with cut), and is a half-brother to 2m3f hurdle/2m4f chase winner Dark Flame. However, showed little zest on rules bow at Wetherby in December 2017 and has been absent since.

Form: 2P3/3-

Euxton Lane²¹²

Age: 6| Weight: 11-2| J: L P Aspell| T: O Sherwood

9/2

Promising type over hurdles, as demonstrated winning on soft ground at Fontwell (2m1f+) and Newbury (2m4f+), earning a rating of 139; pedigree implies that he could be better still over fences; chasing debut.

Form: 572117-

Fleminport²⁴⁰

Age: 5| Weight: 11-2| J: R P McLernon| T: J & A O'Neill| BF| D

14/1

Cost £140,000 in May 2017, but recouped a small amount of that initial outlay winning in testing conditions over hurdles at Hereford (2m5f+) and Lingfield (2m3f+); competitive starting point for his chasing career.

Form: 2/37114-

Garde Forestier^t¹⁸¹

Age: 6| Weight: 11-2| J: C O'Farrell| T: R Menzies| OR: 110

125/1

Bought cheaply out of the Seamus Mullins yard (£5,500) in July with obvious question marks against his name; is probably worth the gamble at that price, albeit he won't be winning today on chasing debut.

Form: 75/13P-P

Nine O Three^p1³⁰

Age: 6| Weight: 11-2| J: Joe Colliver| T: Micky Hammond

200/1

Stablemate of Dark Valley; soon struggling on rules/stable debut at Hexham (2m4f, good to soft) in October (pulled up); cheekpieces are added to this £7,000 pick at the Doncaster Sales in May (1-8 in Irish PTP's).

Form: 34/P21-P

Pookie Pekan²³⁶

Age: 5| Weight: 11-2| J: Sam Coltherd⁽⁵⁾| T: W Coltherd| D

125/1

Dramatic (and most fortunate) winner of a 2m3f+ handicap hurdle at Wetherby in February (heavy); doesn't make too much appeal on rules chasing debut, and surely better once sent handicapping with experience banked.

Form: 3/44916-

Red Rising²²⁶

Age: 7| Weight: 11-2| J: Harry Skelton| T: D Skelton| BF

5/1

50% strike rate over hurdles (3-6) earning a peak BHA rating of 142; carries the same set of silks as Uncle Alastair, so interesting to see how that pair figure in the market; possible player on chasing bow despite being strongest over further.

Form: 1/3121P-

Uncle Alastair²⁰⁶

Age: 6| Weight: 11-2| J: B S Hughes| T: N G Richards| CDWS

7/2

Excellent combined record in bumpers and over hurdles (5-8), and ended the previous campaign with a solid third to Ocean Cove at Ayr (3m, good); heads off over fences (post wind surgery) carrying the same set of silks as the talented Red Rising.

Form: F11133-

Valnamixe Du Mee⁷⁹⁸

Age: 9| Weight: 11-2| J: Nathan Moscrop⁽⁵⁾| T: R Menzies| OR: 86

100/1

Stablemate of Garde Forestier; 0-11 over hurdles; absent from the track since September 2016 when beaten a head at Perth (3m, good) on just his second chasing start; debut for this trainer having left the care of Kenny Johnson.

Form: F63462/

Vinndication²⁷⁷

Age: 5| Weight: 11-2| J: David Bass| T: K Bailey & M Nicholls| D

1/1

Cost £28,000 as a 3yo, but that's clearly money well spent; unbeaten in bumpers and over hurdles (2m3f+ to 2m5f+); has improved sharply in each of his four racecourse appearances and bred for chasing (debut) sets the solid benchmark on the figures.

Form: 1111-

Forecasts

Vinndication (1/1), Uncle Alastair (7/2), Euxton Lane (9/2), Red Rising (5/1), Fleminport (14/1), Claud And Goldie (66/1), Arctic Vodka (100/1), Valnamixe Du Mee (100/1), Pookie Pekan (125/1), Garde Forestier (125/1), Dark Valley (200/1), Nine O Three (200/1), Brackenmoss Rory (200/1)

On paper, this promises to be a thoroughly informative Novices' Chase which should generate a plethora of future winners. Red Rising (Dan Skelton) and Uncle Alastair (Nicky Richards) both carry the Paul and Clare Rooney silks and are guaranteed to make an impression in this grade of contest on known bumper and hurdles form, but the same can also be said of the likes of Euxton Lane (Oliver Sherwood) and Fleminport (Jonjo O'Neill). However, the figures suggest that the Kim Bailey-trained VINNDICATION will take some stopping if equally effective over fences, so he's taken to improve the fine strike-rate of the Andoversford trainer at Carlisle since 1998 (4-19; 21%).