19:15 Kempton

Friday 2 November 2018

All17:4518:1518:4519:1519:4520:1520:4521:15

32Red Casino Handicap

Off time: 19:19 | Winning time: 2m 33.57s

(12)

Azari^p¹³

Age: 6| Weight: 9-11| J: Rossa Ryan| T: Alexandra Dunn| OR: 76| D

40/1

Slightly better over 1m6½f at Chester in penultimate start but then flopped when last of 15 at Catterick although soft ground seen similar efforts in the past. Won on AW and off higher marks in the past but risky proposition overall.

Form: 067540

(4)

Tidal Watch⁹⁹

Age: 4| Weight: 9-7| J: Fran Berry| T: J & A O'Neill| OR: 72

13/2

Landed a hat-trick over hurdles in July before run ended at Worcester. Off since that very busy spell but of some interest here given he twice was second on AW in the spring and could easily have improved since.

Form: 47-5226

(2)

Camakasi⁶⁰

Age: 7| Weight: 9-7| J: Tom Marquand| T: A Stronge| OR: 72| C

11/1

Moderate strike-rate overall but twice won on AW including here (1m3f). Placed in four of his last five starts including when staying on into second over 1m2f at Ffos Las latest. Never won over 1m4f and that the only nagging doubt.

Form: 433272

(11)

Bombero^p²⁵

Age: 4| Weight: 9-6| J: Callum Shepherd| T: E De Giles| OR: 71| D

20/1

In good form earlier in the season including a win at Chepstow but not recaptured that since a layoff and last two runs including here latest particularly laboured so best to look elsewhere at present.

Form: 213540

(5)

Cuillin⁴¹

Age: 3| Weight: 9-5| J: George Wood| T: J R Fanshawe| OR: 75

11/2

Much improved in latest start after a layoff when staying on third of nine at Chelmsford over 1m2f. Looked likely to stay 1m4f there and could strip fitter now so makes plenty of appeal on this, her handicap debut.

Form: 073

(8)

Follow Intello³¹

Age: 3| Weight: 9-4| J: Hollie Doyle| T: C F Wall| OR: 74

5/1

Minor promise in three starts in novice events including latest fifth over C&D where he was beaten 8L. Open to more improvement now handicapping but opening mark doesn't look over generous.

Form: 745

(1)

Blame Me Forever^p¹³⁴

Age: 3| Weight: 9-4| J: M M Monaghan⁽³⁾| T: M Botti| OR: 74

14/1

Surprise winner over 1m5½f at Chelmsford earlier in the season but failed to build on that next twice over 1m6f at the same course. Lengthy absence since a concern but fact he won after a break eases those fears a little.

Form: 9-54147

(9)

Sassie³⁰

Age: 3| Weight: 9-1| J: L Morris| T: S Kirk| OR: 71| D

14/1

1m4f winner at Brighton has since gone up in trip to 1m6f and 2m but with little effect. Two poor efforts here over 2m followed by better showing lately at Nottingham over 1m6f but suspect this trip sharp enough now.

Form: 124355

(13)

Point In Time³⁵

Age: 3| Weight: 9-1| J: David Probert| T: M D I Usher| OR: 71| D

10/1

1m4f winner on Newmarket's July Course in August and followed that up with staying on fourth at Leicester and third at Haydock off today's mark. Handled AW as a two-year-old so has to be considered given present form.

Form: 443143

(10)

Carp Kid^p⁶⁹

Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: William Cox⁽⁵⁾| T: J L Flint| OR: 70

16/1

1m3½f winner at Windsor when last seen also has two wins on AW surfaces in the past. 2lb rise for that win not overly harsh and gone close off higher marks in the past so can't be ruled out despite a short spell on the sidelines.

Form: 320421

(6)

Ilhabela Fact¹⁷

Age: 4| Weight: 8-11| J: Gabriele Malune⁽⁵⁾| T: A W Carroll| OR: 62| CD

9/1

Former French trained colt landed an upset over C&D last time out when battling to success. Up 3lb now and struggled off this mark the time before but no doubt latest run was a step up so can't be ruled out despite a tougher task.

Form: 083-981

(7)

Clovelly Bay¹⁶

Age: 7| Weight: 8-11| J: M Dwyer| T: M P Tregoning| OR: 62| D

25/1

Fourth in June a step in the right direction but then ran two very poor races before given a break. Recent return when finishing midfield at Bath was slightly better but good bit more needed nevertheless.

Form: 694006

(3)

Taurean Dancer¹⁷

Age: 3| Weight: 8-7| J: Edward Greatrex| T: R A Teal| OR: 63

11/2

Nine race maiden hasn't been beyond 1m2f and despite a stout pedigree his keen going nature raises plenty of doubts whether he will stay. Fourth latest but well beaten and more needed so enough doubts to pass him over.

Form: 254464

Forecasts

Follow Intello (5/1), Cuillin (11/2), Taurean Dancer (11/2), Tidal Watch (13/2), Ilhabela Fact (9/1), Point In Time (10/1), Camakasi (11/1), Sassie (14/1), Blame Me Forever (14/1), Carp Kid (16/1), Bombero (20/1), Clovelly Bay (25/1), Azari (40/1)

Unexposed filly CUILLIN showed improved form latest at Chelmsford and should be open to more improvement now second time after a layoff and stepping up in trip which should suit so this opening handicap mark should be workable. Point In Time has run well in each of her last three starts and a return to AW will be no issue so everything points to her making a bold bid. Also worthy of consideration is Ilhabela Fact who showed a nice attitude when winning over C&D latest.