Birdie's 2019 Wall & Desk Calendars Handicap Chase

Off time: 15:16 | Winning time: 3m 56.35s

Lough Kent^v³⁰

Age: 9| Weight: 12-0| J: B S Hughes| T: James Moffatt| OR: 112| D

7/1

Cartmel regular during the summer, producing a season best effort when beaten 13L by Wells De Lune over hurdles (Class 3) in August (2m1f, good to soft); not so effective back over fences (fourth) just a couple of days later.

Form: 0-85724

Ontopoftheworld^p¹⁸

Age: 9| Weight: 11-12| J: James Bowen| T: P & M Bowen| OR: 110

11/8

Joined this trainer from Arthur Moore for just £3,500 in July, but improved on his stable debut showing to score by an ultimately clear-cut 3¾L (left in lead at the last) at Stratford (2m1f, good) latest; raised 5lb.

Form: 5P-5441

King Muro⁹

Age: 8| Weight: 11-11| J: P J Brennan| T: F O'Brien| OR: 109| D

3/1

Took advantage of a falling mark (with the hood applied) to spring a surprise at Bangor (2m1f+) in August, and produced a similar effort off 6lb higher at Worcester next time (third); didn't stay 2m4f at Hexham latest.

Form: 846133

Mumgos Debut^t¹⁶³

Age: 10| Weight: 11-9| J: D R Fox| T: Miss Lucinda V Russell| OR: 107| C| D

11/1

Left alone at the first fence when winning over C&D (heavy) in September 2017, but didn't always put his best foot forward thereafter falling 8lb in the weights over the season; game third at Kelso (2m1f) in April after losing both front shoes.

Form: 178643-

Vino's Choice^h1,t⁵⁷

Age: 6| Weight: 10-9| J: Blair Campbell⁽⁵⁾| T: Miss Lucinda V Russell| OR: 93| CD

7/2

Stablemate of Mumgos Debut; wears a hood for the first-time in competitive action; 0-2 over fences so far and despite the very small field, he rates as a most unlikely winner.

Form: 940-547

Forecasts

Ontopoftheworld (11/8), King Muro (3/1), Vino's Choice (7/2), Lough Kent (7/1), Mumgos Debut (11/1)

A poor numerical turnout with Lucinda Russell responsible for 40% of those declared; doubly represented by Mumgos Debut and Vino's Choice. However, this looks to lie between the dropped back in trip King Muro and the slightly fortuitous, albeit decisive Stratford winner ONTOPOFTHEWORLD. With no strong preference for either horse, and little between the pair in the weights (just 1lb), the safest option is to side with the likely market leader.