15:55 Wincanton

Thursday 18 January 2018

All13:1013:4014:1014:4515:2015:55

Higos For Your Thatch Insurance 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle

Off time: 15:55 | Winning time: 4m 6.60s

Big Fred¹²

Age: 7| Weight: 11-4| J: Dave Crosse| T: B J Llewellyn

33/1

Half-brother to four time winner Howwoulduno. Showed some ability in a minor bumper on debut and not one to dismiss in a less competitive field than the numbers suggest.

Form: 5

Commodore⁶⁴

Age: 6| Weight: 11-4| J: Charlie Deutsch⁽³⁾| T: Miss V Williams

3/1

French form may not amount to much (using Corlay as a guide.) Was on the retreat when making a mistake that forced his rider to pull him up at Bangor two months ago and this is his first outing since.

Form: 214-P

Daylami Kirk⁹

Age: 7| Weight: 11-4| J: Nick Scholfield| T: R J Hodges

18/1

Runner-up to the useful Lalor in a bumper, but tailed of on both hurdling starts and looks a long-shot to succeed this time.

Form: 3027-0

Diablerets⁴⁹

Age: 5| Weight: 11-4| J: James Best| T: R Woollacott

80/1

Would probably have improved on his previous two starts had he remained upright last time. Nevertheless, it will take massive improvement for him to figure here and he is not easy to recommend.

Form: 4-8F

Inaminna¹⁹

Age: 7| Weight: 11-4| J: N D Fehily| T: N P Mulholland

6/1

One win from four in point-to-points, might have been two but for a late fall in June. Modest ability so far in a bumper and on hurdling debut, but has shown more than most in this.

Form: 1-32F34

Jurby⁸⁹

Age: 8| Weight: 11-4| J: L P Aspell| T: O Sherwood

13/8

Justified favouritism when successful in a Newcastle (good ground) bumper in March 2015. Reappeared from 30 months on the sidelines to finish second to the useful Dr Des, despite looking in need of the run and a more galloping track.

Form: 10/2

Moving In Style²⁷

Age: 7| Weight: 11-4| J: Philip Donovan⁽⁷⁾| T: N P Mulholland

50/1

Form of his point-to-point victory is unexciting but his previous second to the useful Willie Boy makes him more interesting. Poor so far under rules and looks the yard's second string in this.

Form: 21-8P

Nuclear^p1⁴¹

Age: 5| Weight: 11-4| J: A Thornton| T: J W Mullins

50/1

Beaten an aggregate of 118L in two bumper starts and pulled up on hurdling debut. Cheekpieces tried now but hard to envisage him playing more than a supporting role.

Form: 26P

Robin De Broome⁹

Age: 6| Weight: 11-4| J: Thomas Garner⁽³⁾| T: B Barr

66/1

Poor in all starts since arriving from Ireland. Looks like a long term project who will come into his own when handicapping on better ground.

Form: 3-2P0P7

St Merryn²⁷

Age: 7| Weight: 11-4| J: Charlie Hammond⁽⁷⁾| T: B R Summers

200/1

Has a decent pedigree and a placed effort between the flags. Beaten an aggregate of 153L in his two starts over hurdles and that makes it harder to argue his case.

Form: 3/6-06

Willie Mclovin¹⁷

Age: 6| Weight: 11-4| J: M G Nolan| T: C J Gray

150/1

Tailed off in a bumper and on hurdles debut. Has gone off at long odds both times and there are likely to be few supporting him here.

Form: 07

Grand Sancy^h⁴²

Age: 4| Weight: 10-7| J: Sam Twiston-Davies| T: P F Nicholls

5/2

Makes his hurdling debut having looked keen in both starts in bumpers. Stable have a 3-8 record in this and no reason to expect anything other than a bold show in a race that lacks depth.

Form: 42

Non-Runners

Stand By Me⁸¹

Weight: 11-4| Age: 8

T: A E Jones J: T J O'Brien

Solstice Twilight³⁸

Weight: 10-11| Age: 6

T: A J Honeyball J: David Noonan

Forecasts

Jurby (13/8), Grand Sancy (5/2), Commodore (3/1), Inaminna (6/1), Daylami Kirk (18/1), Solstice Twilight (25/1), Big Fred (33/1), Moving In Style (50/1), Nuclear (50/1), Robin De Broome (66/1), Stand By Me (66/1), Diablerets (80/1), Willie Mclovin (150/1), St Merryn (200/1)

Favourites have won seven of the ten runnings of this and Paul Nicholls has placed three of his eight runners to advantage in it. With that in mind Grand Sancy has to be considered on his hurdling debut and in receipt of a handy allowance. His bumper form is only average, but this race is far from competitive. A lot hinges on how JURBY has come out of his return from a 30 month layoff. His second to Dr Des looks strong given that rival is now rated in the 140s. The selection looked ill at ease on the tight Stratford circuit that day, but remained a threat to the winner until the lack of a run began to tell. Oliver Sherwood's charge will take all the beating if running to that form in the most testing conditions he has faced. Inaminna and Big Fred look the pick of the rest.