12:50 Carlisle

Sunday 3 December 2017

All12:2012:5013:2013:5514:2515:0015:30

Northern Lights Mares' Hurdle Series Final Mares' Handicap Hurdle

Off time: 12:51 | Winning time: 5m 12.47s

Paper Roses¹⁸

Age: 6| Weight: 11-12| J: Callum Whillans⁽³⁾| T: D W Whillans| OR: 112

5/2

Ended last season with best run to date when a close second at Perth on handicap debut. Good second again on reappearance at Ayr last month on heavy ground when cruising to the front before tiring. Leading player.

Form: U7382-2

Wide Awake¹⁸

Age: 8| Weight: 11-11| J: Rachel McDonald⁽⁷⁾| T: A M Thomson| OR: 111

3/1

2¾L behind Paper Roses at Ayr last month and ran well at Sedgefield the time before also. Seems to be on the up but Paper Roses should strip fitter today so unlikely to turn things round with that rival.

Form: 7-5423

Black Tulip³¹

Age: 5| Weight: 11-8| J: R Johnson| T: H D Daly| OR: 108

6/1

Won at Stratford in May and ran well subsequently at Aintree before below par sixth after a break at Sedgefield (Wide Awake second). Expecting improved effort now with champion jockey booked but heavy ground an unknown.

Form: 944-126

Beyondtemptation^h,t¹¹

Age: 9| Weight: 11-6| J: Thomas Dowson⁽³⁾| T: J C Haynes| OR: 106| D

20/1

11 time winner over hurdles who particularly enjoys Hexham (six wins there). Not beaten a rival in last three races with a last and two pulled-ups so at present she is hard to fancy.

Form: 853P0P

Our Valentina¹⁸

Age: 6| Weight: 11-3| J: J J Slevin⁽³⁾| T: S R B Crawford| OR: 103

4/1

Behind Paper Roses when fifth in final start of last campaign and again behind that rival when fourth on return at Ayr. No obvious reason for turnaround but her win in a 20 runner race at Navan before was impressive.

Form: 72315-4

Minnie Milan^p,t³

Age: 8| Weight: 11-0| J: A Nicol| T: B Butterworth| OR: 100

12/1

Three time hurdle winner hasn't shown her best form I testing conditions in the past so that the biggest worry today. Over two years now since she last won and hard to see her changing that today.

Form: 584764

Catchthemoonlight⁵⁶

Age: 9| Weight: 10-11| J: Blair Campbell⁽⁵⁾| T: Miss Lucinda V Russell| OR: 97| C

10/1

Won over 2m1f here in April but lost way somewhat since and was pulled up on return at Kelso in October. Limited evidence over 2m4f but probably stays and only 2lb higher than course win so could see better effort.

Form: 31U-55P

Theatre Act^v1¹⁸

Age: 6| Weight: 10-9| J: B S Hughes| T: C Grant| OR: 95| CD

14/1

Run poorly in all three starts this term and was pulled up at Ayr last month with the second, third and fourth there re-opposing today. Visor added and jockey booking of note but hard to be confident at present.

Form: 35-P50P

Forecasts

Paper Roses (5/2), Wide Awake (3/1), Our Valentina (4/1), Black Tulip (6/1), Catchthemoonlight (10/1), Minnie Milan (12/1), Theatre Act (14/1), Beyondtemptation (20/1)

All roads here lead to PAPER ROSES after her excellent reappearance second at Ayr and she has the beating of several rivals on that run and her second last season at Perth. Wide Awake was closest of those behind her at Ayr and she remains on the upgrade so can't be dismissed. Black Tulip is of interest with Richard Johnson on board and she could prove the biggest danger to Paper Roses if handling this ground.