16:15 Chepstow

Wednesday 8 November 2017

All12:5513:2514:0014:3515:1015:4016:15

Mervyn Edward Williams 75th Birthday Standard Open NH Flat Race

Off time: 16:15 | Winning time: 4m 6.99s

Chief Sittingbull²⁷⁹

Age: 4| Weight: 10-12| J: N D Fehily| T: N P Mulholland

16/1

With a good yard but has shown only limited ability in two starts to date. Flat bred and stamina may be an issue, but first run for new yard and he may yet do better,

Form: 66-

Court Duty³⁴⁵

Age: 5| Weight: 10-12| J: Ian Popham| T: J L Flint

150/1

Showed only a glimmer of ability on only start to date (for Rebecca Curtis) at Ludlow and has joined a yard that rarely have winners in the sphere (2-22 last five seasons). Best watched unless market suggests otherwise.

Form: 8-

Diablo De Rouhet¹⁶⁴

Age: 4| Weight: 10-12| J: M D Grant| T: J Hughes

100/1

Pulled up both starts in point-to-points and hard to make any sort of a case for on that.

Form: PP

Good Boy Bobby

Age: 4| Weight: 10-12| J: Sam Twiston-Davies| T: N & W Twiston-Davies

6/1

80,000 Euro purchase that makes plenty of appeal on pedigree, with some classy winners in the family. Yard firing now after a poor autumn by their standards, and they get plenty of bumper winners too. Must be on the shortlist.

Form:

Itsamanslife¹⁹⁹

Age: 4| Weight: 10-12| J: Benjamin Poste| T: Katy Price

50/1

Some ability shown in a couple of point-to-points but the yard are not known for bumper winners (just 1-9 last five years) and others make more appeal.

Form: 32-

Manley Common

Age: 5| Weight: 10-12| J: L Treadwell| T: Miss V Williams

20/1

Bought as a store for 58,000 Euros back in 2015 and yard know the family quite well. Will want further in time, yard do get bumper winners but are struggling for form at present and on that, makes only limited appeal today.

Form:

Monk's View

Age: 4| Weight: 10-12| J: D A Jacob| T: B Pauling

6/1

Bought by current connections for 24,000 Euros last year but breeding suggests that, despite the fact the yard do get plenty of bumper winners (23% strike rate last five years) this one may need more of a test to be seen to best effect.

Form:

Nocturnal Myth^t1

Age: 4| Weight: 10-12| J: Aidan Coleman| T: A J Honeyball

6/1

Trainer is 18% in bumpers over the past five seasons, which gives hope, as does a nice pedigree, but of some concern that the tongue tie is being used first time out. Others preferred.

Form:

Sunset Showdown²⁶⁹

Age: 4| Weight: 10-12| J: B J Geraghty| T: Miss R Curtis| D

11/8

Easy winner of a point-to-point and plenty of classy winners in the family. Yard 16% strike rate in last five years and will be well fancied under Barry Geraghty here, but trainer not in best of form, so needs a bit of caution here.

Form: 1-

Telson Barley

Age: 4| Weight: 10-12| J: Kielan Woods| T: D Killahena & G McPherson

66/1

Half brother to hurdle/chase winner Basford Bob, but the big negative is the yard's record in bumpers (just 2-52 last five years). Makes only minimal appeal.

Form:

Tigger Two

Age: 5| Weight: 10-12| J: T Scudamore| T: D Pipe

25/1

Breeding suggests we won't see the best of this one until getting more of a trip half brother to a 3m winner) but the yard are in better form than they have been and get bumper winners, so a market check is required.

Form:

Tossapenny²¹⁰

Age: 4| Weight: 10-12| J: Adam Wedge| T: Evan Williams

8/1

Easy winner of a point-to-point and has been the subject of favourable reports from the trainer, purchased for £170,000 by current connections in April and a good mix of speed and stamina in the pedigree. Must be taken seriously here.

Form: 1-

Turbotim

Age: 4| Weight: 10-12| J: R T Dunne| T: M Scudamore

100/1

Makes only a bit of appeal on pedigree and although the yard get the odd bumper winner (5-43 last five years) are in no real form at present, and this one is best watched.

Form:

West To The Bridge^h1

Age: 4| Weight: 10-12| J: Harry Skelton| T: D Skelton

20/1

From a yard that do well in this sphere (15% strike rate last five years) and this one is related to a few hurdle winners, but it's of some concern that the hood is on for debut, suggesting he may be a bit of a handful.

Form:

Kiwi Myth¹⁷⁵

Age: 5| Weight: 10-5| J: Mr M Legg⁽⁵⁾| T: Mrs F M Shaw

200/1

Tailed right off on debut and yard are 0-9 in bumpers last five years, so difficult to find any positives from that. No realistic chance here.

Form: 0

Queenohearts

Age: 4| Weight: 10-5| J: C Gethings⁽³⁾| T: S Edmunds

33/1

From a yard that win their share of bumpers (6-36 last five years) and do introduce some nice types into these races. No great stars in the family here though, so may be best watched unless market says otherwise.

Form:

Result Amended

Tossapenny - Original Position 3rd. Amended Position 2nd.

West To The Bridge - Original Position 2nd. Amended Position 3rd.

Forecasts

Sunset Showdown (11/8), Good Boy Bobby (6/1), Nocturnal Myth (6/1), Monk's View (6/1), Tossapenny (8/1), Chief Sittingbull (16/1), West To The Bridge (20/1), Manley Common (20/1), Tigger Two (25/1), Queenohearts (33/1), Itsamanslife (50/1), Telson Barley (66/1), Diablo De Rouhet (100/1), Turbotim (100/1), Court Duty (150/1), Kiwi Myth (200/1)

As ever in these events, the market will prove the best guide, but for the time being TOSSAPENNY makes the most appeal. Impressive winner of his only point-to-point start and from a useful family of hurdlers and chasers. Good Boy Bobby may be next best, ahead of West To The Bridge and Sunset Showdown.