16:10 Perth

Thursday 27 April 2017

All14:0014:3515:0515:3516:1016:4517:20

All New Discovery River Tay Handicap Chase

Off time: 16:10 | Winning time: 4m 56.40s

Special Catch¹⁹

Age: 10| Weight: 11-12| J: B S Hughes| T: J M Jefferson| OR: 139

10/1

Made a winning start for this yard at Sedgefield in January and has remained in good form since, putting in his best work late when ¾L second to No Planning over this trip at Newcastle earlier this month. Up 1lb, and this track is a new experience, but ought to go well enough.

Form: 14P132

Value At Risk^p,t1¹⁹

Age: 8| Weight: 11-7| J: Harry Skelton| T: D Skelton| OR: 134

13/8

Useful hurdler (Grade 2 winner at Fairyhouse in March 2016), and off the mark at the fourth attempt over fences at Bangor in October (2m4f Good). Out of his depth last time on his return from a break at Aintree (but not disgraced) and a major player at this more realistic level on ground which will be ideal, wearing the first time tongue tie.

Form: 921-417

Full Shift^p⁶¹

Age: 8| Weight: 11-3| J: J McGrath| T: N J Henderson| OR: 130

11/4

Goes very well right handed around Kempton, so there has to be a real chance that this track will prove ideal. Not able to win over fences since his novice season (his last success came at Kempton in December 2015), but dangerously handicapped on his best level of form.

Form: P6023-4

Mystifiable^t¹¹⁰

Age: 9| Weight: 10-13| J: P J Brennan| T: F O'Brien| OR: 126

7/2

6lb higher than when an impressive winner at Newbury in March 2016 and has shown his versatility in winning over trips between 2m2f and 2m6f. However, out of sorts so far this term and off since January, but dangerous to write off nevertheless as the ground conditions change.

Form: 511P-97

Baileys Concerto^p,t¹²

Age: 11| Weight: 10-11| J: Harry Challoner| T: Mrs Dianne Sayer| OR: 124

22/1

Course record reads 3,1,1,2 so clearly thrives off the Scone Palace air, with that most recent runner up effort coming here in June 2016 (a neck behind Russian Regent). Mixed form thereafter but placed at Aintree in December 2016, and Carlisle (latest) so possibly on the way back at the age of 11.

Form: 52P024-

Uhlan Bute^p¹²

Age: 9| Weight: 10-9| J: Charlie Deutsch⁽³⁾| T: Miss V Williams| OR: 122

12/1

An infrequent winner (not since November 2015), but always dangerous to rule out one of this trainers representatives. Mixed it in a Class 2 event last time at Haydock but was beaten a long way by Ballybolley (fourth), and was only 8L second of four on his last visit to this track in April 2016.

Form: 2/UP424-

Formidableopponent^b¹¹⁴

Age: 10| Weight: 10-0| J: Sean Quinlan| T: W Young Jnr| OR: 112

50/1

C&D winner who kicked off a most productive spell by winning here in September 2016. Has risen markedly in the weights since (winning a further four times; Hexham x3 and Ayr), but this is a far tougher task from out of the weights, and he needs to return from a break better than ever to trouble the judge.

Form: 22U26P-

Non-Runners

Tiquer⁵⁵

Weight: 10-10| Age: 9

T: A E Jones J: Nick Scholfield

Forecasts

Value At Risk (13/8), Full Shift (11/4), Mystifiable (7/2), Tiquer (5/1), Special Catch (10/1), Uhlan Bute (12/1), Baileys Concerto (22/1), Formidableopponent (50/1)

A fascinating contest. Baileys Concerto loves this track and can be expected to run well, but at the age of eleven is vulnerable to an improving sort. Full Shift likes Kempton and although a shade below par at that track on his latest outing races from a dangerous mark at a track which is highly likely to play to his strengths. However, there has never been any denying that VALUE AT RISK possesses much ability, it's more a case that he's taken an eternity to get his act together over fences. On the back of a couple of good runs split months apart, he comes into this race relatively fresh with a spring campaign presumably well mapped out by his shrewd young trainer.