13:30 Fakenham

Friday 17 February 2017

All13:3014:0014:3015:0015:3516:0516:35

Racing To School Riders' Day Selling Handicap Hurdle

Off time: 13:31 | Winning time: 4m 7.7s

Friendship Bay¹⁶

Age: 13| Weight: 11-12| J: James Banks| T: H J Evans| OR: 100

8/1

A veteran who has only raced eight times and who did show promise in bumpers/novice hurdles a number of years ago. Recent reappearance after more than four years off the track suggests he retains some ability, but difficult to know what to expect on second run back after such a long absence.

Form: 683/54-6

Nebula Storm^v²⁴

Age: 10| Weight: 11-10| J: H Cobden| T: M Blake| OR: 98

25/1

Seems to go well on tight left-handed tracks, and has form here when second in a seller two seasons back. It has though been a tale of woe in his last four starts, only beating a couple of horses home and falling at Plumpton. Takes a drop in grade and this is probably his level these days, but does need to turn his poor form around. Market may guide.

Form: 41237-0

Great Link^b,t³¹³

Age: 8| Weight: 11-9| J: Mr Joe Hill⁽⁷⁾| T: Mrs L Hill| OR: 97

8/1

Has had his issues (not seen for much of 2016) and hasn't really set the world alight since coming back this winter, often pulling hard in his races and having little left in the finish. Beaten in sellers on his last four starts and hard to see why he should do any better here, although the tight track may help.

Form: 5/1243-P

Changing The Guard^p,t⁸¹

Age: 11| Weight: 11-8| J: T Dowling⁽⁷⁾| T: F Brennan| OR: 96

14/1

Useful handicap hurdler for Richard Newland at his peak, but been on the downgrade for some time and strike rate has dropped off quite alarmingly. The positives to take are his form at Fakenham (won a seller here last year) and the better ground, which he seems to need these days. Like many in this race, is hard to predict.

Form: 434752-

Edward Elgar^b⁹

Age: 6| Weight: 11-7| J: Harry Skelton| T: Mrs Caroline Bailey| OR: 95

4/1

Won a couple of sellers back in 2015, but not so good since. His best recent effort came at Leicester in January when he was not beaten far in a better class race than this which suggests all is not lost, He did though take a step backwards at Wetherby on his latest start, never travelling and pulled up before three out. Drops in grade, and can't be dismissed.

Form: 5P1325-

Lake Chapala^p²⁴

Age: 8| Weight: 11-4| J: Alan Johns⁽³⁾| T: Tim Vaughan| OR: 92

3/1

In great form at present, winning a couple of handicap chases at Hereford and Musselburgh and carried that form back over hurdles last time, only going down narrowly to Aza Run at Leicester. Seems to handle all ground and tracks alike, so no reason why he won't run his race and once again holds a leading chance.

Form: 12651-1

Akula^p1¹⁰

Age: 10| Weight: 11-3| J: C Gethings⁽⁵⁾| T: B Leavy| OR: 91

7/4

Poor overall win record (3-56) and no win on the card since March 2015, when he made all the running to score by 28L. Not disgraced in recent efforts (in better company than today) and made favourite for a Class 4 handicap at Leicester on latest start and was not beaten far. Looks the likely leader and can't be allowed too much rope in a poor race.

Form: 421173-

Non-Runners

Gray Wolf River⁴⁴

Weight: 10-0| Age: 6

T: R C Harper J: Page Fuller

Forecasts

Akula (7/4), Lake Chapala (3/1), Edward Elgar (4/1), Great Link (8/1), Friendship Bay (8/1), Changing The Guard (14/1), Nebula Storm (25/1), Gray Wolf River (25/1)

As ever with sellers, it may pay to tread carefully, but LAKE CHAPALA has obvious claims in a race where good recent form is hard to find. He looks more straightforward than a few of these and can score again. Akula has a poor win record, which puts you off for win purposes, but he's likely to make a decent first of this from the front and can hang on for second. Keep an eye on any money for Nebula Storm, who hasn't shown much lately but is capable in the grade. 1. Lake Chapala 2. Akula 3. Nebula Storm