16:30 Newcastle

Thursday 12 January 2017

All14:0014:3015:0015:3016:0016:3017:00

Sunbets.co.uk Handicap

Off time: 16:31 | Winning time: 1m 32.04s

(12)

Steel Train³³

Age: 6| Weight: 9-5| J: Patrick Vaughan⁽⁷⁾| T: D O'Meara| OR: 100

8/1

In the former of his life of late and clinged on to victory over C&D last time. Handicapper may be starting to get a hold though and a 5lb rise in the weights for that win seems a little harsh.

Form: 000708

(2)

Flaming Spear²²

Age: 5| Weight: 9-2| J: R Winston| T: K A Ryan| OR: 97

3/1

Tricky to catch right but finally bounced back to form here last time with an impressive victory and he's clearly a classy type when things drop right. He seemed to relish that step up in trip so the drop back down looks a question mark and given his patchy profile, he's no certainty to back that performance up but the 5lb rise seems fair. Place chance.

Form: 05-2000

(3)

Volunteer Point¹⁵

Age: 5| Weight: 9-0| J: M Harley| T: M R Channon| OR: 95

14/1

Very capable on her day and handicap mark looks fair. Best recent efforts have come on a track with a bend so maybe has to prove she's as effective on this straight course but that's only a minor concern and she ought to go close.

Form: 05319-0

(7)

Suzi's Connoisseur^t,v²⁷

Age: 6| Weight: 9-0| J: J Fanning| T: S C Williams| OR: 95

20/1

Only one attempt on the AW which came last time out at Wolverhampton. Failed to make an impression there so hard to fancy on the back of that in a contest as deep as this.

Form: 009-516

(4)

Grey Mirage^b¹²

Age: 8| Weight: 8-12| J: L Morris| T: Miss Gay Kelleway| OR: 93

50/1

Talented AW performer but hasn't been in much form of late and appears to be a bit of a Lingfield specialist. This test is a very different prospect to that track so has plenty to prove on debut for new yard.

Form: 569738

(9)

Pactolus^p,t³⁵

Age: 6| Weight: 8-11| J: Aaron Jones⁽³⁾| T: S C Williams| OR: 92

14/1

Been running well at Chelmsford recently but has a career high mark to contend with now and unlikely to still be improving at this age. Others look better handicapped.

Form: 4-01023

(6)

Holiday Magic¹¹^{(ex 6)}

Age: 6| Weight: 8-11| J: Nathan Evans⁽³⁾| T: M & D Easterby| OR: 86

4/1

In fine form of late and goes in search of a four-timer. May struggle to be quiet as effective from the front here though (Second here off 74 in November when trying to lead) but claimer takes off valuable 3lb so can't be ruled out.

Form: 142307

(1)

Horsted Keynes³³⁹

Age: 7| Weight: 8-10| J: S W Kelly| T: D M Simcock| OR: 91

33/1

Not beaten a rival home on latest four starts and shaped as if amiss on most recent of those efforts. Has a significant break to overcome.

Form: 033372

(11)

Shyron¹¹

Age: 6| Weight: 8-10| J: Jane Elliott⁽⁷⁾| T: G G Margarson| OR: 91

33/1

Best performances to date have come around Lingfield and produced a poor run last time out at Southwell. That can be forgiven (first run on fibresand) but he's still above his last winning mark so tricky to not one to get over-enthusiastic about.

Form: 878002

(10)

Nimr⁴¹

Age: 4| Weight: 8-10| J: T Hamilton| T: R A Fahey| OR: 91

9/2

Improved effort last time and surprisingly only put up 3lb for that win. Proven on tapeta and his mark looks lenient so plenty like about this unexposed type.

Form: 1-61102

(5)

Al Khan¹¹

Age: 8| Weight: 8-9| J: K Stott| T: K A Ryan| OR: 90

33/1

Bounced back to form of late but that was with an apprentice who is well with his 7lb claim in the saddle and he's above his highest winning mark now so others preferred in an event this competitive.

Form: 303171

(14)

Fort Bastion²²

Age: 8| Weight: 8-7| J: T Eaves| T: B Ellison| OR: 88

20/1

Has been around the block of late but shows that he retains ability - won two claimers at Chelmsford in October and November. Good effort back in handicaps at Newcastle and Lingfield recently but looks vulnerable for win purposes.

Form: 011005

(13)

Qaffaal¹²

Age: 6| Weight: 8-6| J: J P Sullivan| T: M & D Easterby| OR: 87

6/1

Highly talented sort and there's a suspicion the handicapper hasn't caught up with him yet, despite finishing second on last two starts. Latest of those was against a C&D specialist and he just left his run too late. This course should play to his strengths and he could be tough to beat providing he gets the pace to aim at.

Form: 601112

Non-Runners

(8)

Realize²¹

Weight: 9-10| Age: 7

T: S C Williams J: Non Runner

Forecasts

Flaming Spear (3/1), Holiday Magic (4/1), Nimr (9/2), Qaffaal (6/1), Realize (7/1), Steel Train (8/1), Pactolus (14/1), Volunteer Point (14/1), Fort Bastion (20/1), Suzi's Connoisseur (20/1), Al Khan (33/1), Shyron (33/1), Horsted Keynes (33/1), Grey Mirage (50/1)

QAFFAAL has the kind of running style that the handicapper has struggled to get to grips with and was only just beaten by a C&D specialist last time out. The suspicion is he's still well handicapped and while he needs things to drop right for him, he looks the most likely winner here. Stablemate Holiday Magic isn't without a chance but he may find it tougher to dominate at this track. This may be why his trainer has opted to use talented claimer Nathan Evans on his back; he's a dab hand when it comes to front-running rides. Nimr may have been let off by the handicapper, only up 3lb for winning what looked like a hot race. He's still low mileage so there's a good chance he can progress. 1. Qaffaal 2. Holiday Magic 3. Nimr