Day two of the Dante Festival on the Knavesmire and our man is on the lookout for more big-priced winners.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 110pts profit.
- So far this year he's tipped winners Aucunrisque at 14/1, Maskada at 25/1, Stage Star at 11/1, Tiger Jet at 16/1, Rebel Territory at 7/1, Rainbow Fire at 6/1, Gloire D’athon at 14/1 and Metier at 6/1.
Value Bet tips: Thursday, May 18
1pt win Nomadic Empire in 1.50 York at 20/1 (General)
1pt win Croupier in 3.00 York at 14/1 (General)
1pt win Tropez Power in 3.00 York at 25/1 (General)
No desire to get drawn into Dante wager
A good-looking edition of the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes takes top billing at York on Thursday and there are any number in with some sort of chance.
The nine colts to have raced already this season all come into it on the back of being placed last time out, while Aidan O’Brien’s Continuous and the Charlie Appleby-trained Flying Honours – both arriving fresh – have strong form claims based on what we saw of them as juveniles.
Sir Michael Stoute has supplemented the Wood Ditton winner, Passenger, which sets a few alarm bells ringing (the good type), and the inclusion of Ballysax winner White Birch adds another thread to what looks the deepest Derby trial to be run so far this spring.
As for the market, it’s hard to take too much offence. There’s probably a touch of the ‘Frankie factor’ involved when it comes to Epictetus, who didn’t blow me away at Epsom, and Canberra Legend is plenty short enough too after winning the Feilden Stakes.
Craven runner-up The Foxes can’t be ignored either, although the one I’d back from the Craven meeting would probably be Karl Burke’s Liberty Lane, who was conceding 7lb to subsequent Lingfield runner-up Waipiro in the 10-furlong novice and did remarkably well to hold on for second given how keen he was in the early stages.
He’ll need to settle better here in order to go one better in this sort of company, and the walk across from the stables plus the bigger raceday crowd probably won’t help, but this well-bred son of Teofilo could yet make the grade.
Fellow Yorkshire representative Dear My Friend is another open to further progress and he looked good value for his neck victory in the Burradon at Newcastle last month.
Quite whether he’s begging for a return to 10 furlongs remains to be seen as he looked a bit short on stamina when only third to Flying Honours in the Zetland Stakes as a juvenile, but his previous run in France when behind subsequent Breeders’ Cup winner Victoria Road and Sunday’s French Guineas heroine Blue Rose Cen reads exceptionally well.
Charlie Johnston’s first-string is the closest I came to pulling the trigger in terms of a bet, but there’s never any need to be punting for the sake of it and I’ll sit tight with a view to learning more ahead of Derby day.
Quinn to continue working magic with Power
The Sky Bet Hambleton Handicap is one of the best betting heats of the week and isn’t too far off the Royal Hunt Cup and Goodwood’s Golden Mile in terms of pure quality.
I’m backing two against the field, starting with John Quinn’s outsider TROPEZ POWER, who I’m convinced not only remains in good heart and but still looks to be sitting on a whole lot more potential improvement for his new yard.
He was a bit of a disappointment under Richard Hannon, if truth be told, but has taken off for the move north, winning twice and placing three times from his five all-weather starts for Quinn over the winter.
That little sequence saw his AW mark rise from 81 to 92 but he was able to run off 90 back on turf at Doncaster last month, where the weather turned against him on Town Moor.
After making smooth headway from towards the back end of the field, his run eventually petered out on the heavy ground but Jason Hart looked after him in the final furlong and that could really pay off here.
The bonus is that he’s been dropped a couple of pounds, his turf mark now just 88, and I’ve no doubt he can do plenty of damage on the green stuff back on a sound surface this summer.
Backed from an initial 40/1 into 25s generally, his current odds are still a bit of an insult as he should get a lovely slot if breaking on terms from stall four. I'd be keen enough at 20/1 or bigger.
The must-have saver here is CROUPIER, another horse who hated the mud at Doncaster last month.
Simon and Ed Crisford’s charge was an easy-to-back 40/1 shot for the Lincoln and ran accordingly – all but pulled-up in the end – but he’s miles better than that and could swiftly prove it back on good ground under William Buick from stall six.
This gelding looked like a future pattern horse when powering home in a Chelmsford handicap in mid-October and, while still 7lb higher, the runner-up that day (Excel Power) has won twice since and gone up 11lb in the weights himself.
Croupier beat another subsequent scorer in New Pursuit when successful at Windsor (good) in September so there are no concerns over his suitability to turf, and he looks to have lots of natural pace which is always a great asset around York – the 7f entry at Newmarket on Saturday shows he’s not short of gears.
Empire can strike back for O'Meara
Elsewhere on the Thursday card, Whenthedealinsdone would be a slightly frustrating winner of the opening Lindum York Handicap as we were with him at Goodwood when easy enough to back before the off and he ultimately shaped like the run might have been needed to sharpen him up.
The assessor has generously dropped him 2lb for that comeback effort so he’s clearly going to be a dangerous, but his style of racing doesn’t really lend itself to this track and he was comfortably held on his only previous visit to York.
Copper Knight left him trailing that day and Tim Easterby’s remarkable nine-year-old is back for another shot at this having won the race in 2019 and 2021. He’s extremely well handicapped off 88 if a return to the Knavesmire sparks him back to life, but I much prefer the claims of the relatively youthful five-year-old NOMADIC EMPIRE.
He wasn’t at his best on rain-soaked ground at Ripon last month but he’s much happier on a sound surface and was reappearing after a productive spell out in Bahrain over the winter too, so I’m happy to give him a pass.
Eased to a mark of 92 on the back of it, he was rated 11lb higher when sent off favourite for one of these hot sprint handicaps at this meeting 12 months ago so is evidently on the right side of the assessor at present, while his close fourth over the extended five furlongs here in August confirmed his liking for the track – has posted plenty of strong course form over the years.
That Ebor meeting effort came in a first-time visor and the same headgear returns this week, the horse having been wearing cheekpieces during his spell abroad, as well as on the Ripon comeback.
He pushed Winter Power close in first-time cheekpieces at Ayr in his youth so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the latest headgear switch have a positive effect again, and I like his draw in stall five too, right alongside Lord Riddiford and Clarendon House in six and seven respectively, with Copper Knight another likely to blaze a trail towards the far side from box one.
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First published at 1500 BST on 17/05/23
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