Our man looks to unearth more big-priced winners this Saturday, with selections for York, Sandown and Chester.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 134pts profit, while he's over 40pts up for the year.
Value Bet tips: Saturday, June 17
1pt win Zu Run in 2.15 Sandown at 11/1 (Coral) - NON-RUNNER
1pt win Monte Linas in 3.20 Chester at 14/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Mill Stream in 3.40 York at 12/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
0.5pts e.w. Safari Dream in 3.40 York at 33/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Take two in competitive sprint handicap
A cracking day's racing in glorious weather at York but it's another incredibly competitive card served up on the Knavesmire and finding winners won’t be easy, even with guaranteed quick ground.
The Oakmere Homes Supporting Macmillan Sprint Handicap isn’t for the faint-hearted punter but with extra places on offer all over the spot (Sky Bet paying seven) and the thriving favourite Quinault drawn 20 and away from the rest of the likely early speed, I'll be having a couple of each-way darts in the race.
The first bet is potentially the class act of the field, MILL STREAM, who has held long-term entries in the Commonwealth Cup and the July Cup. Those fancy engagements probably won’t come to pass after Jane Chapple-Hyam’s horse beat just one home in the Sandy Lane Stakes on his seasonal return at Haydock, but that was clearly a very strong edition of the race – won by the 124-rated Little Big Bear – and he also got stewed up before the start so I can’t believe we saw the best of Mill Stream on the day.
Eased 2lb to a mark of 98, he takes a significant drop in class this weekend and looks well capable of out-running his odds based on last year’s efforts, which included a half-length second to Noble Style on Newmarket’s July Course.
He'd earlier won a maiden on debut at Doncaster and then ended his juvenile campaign with a far-from-disgraceful effort when fourth behind subsequent Dewhurst and 2000 Guineas winner Chaldean in the Acomb here at York, travelling well but not quite seeing out the seven furlongs.
Chapple-Hyam looks to have her horses in pretty good nick on the whole, which isn’t unusual with Royal Ascot just around the corner, and I think it’s far too soon to be giving up on this son of Gleneagles.
A bit further down the weights, and at a considerably bigger price, I’m willing to chance SAFARI DREAM hanging tough for a bit longer than many people seem to expect.
He’s yet to win over six furlongs but if he’s going to fully see this trip out then it will come on quick ground at a course like York, and there’s plenty of evidence to suggest this three-time juvenile scorer has trained on at three.
He was only beaten a length on dreadful ground first time back at Goodwood and stepped up on that form when a close third (three quarters of a length) behind King Power pair The Big Board and Fox Master at Leicester late last month.
He’s got to pull out more to win this tougher race off a 1lb higher mark, but I like stall 10 (next to Mill Stream) up the middle for this prominent racer and first-time cheekpieces could help eke out a little further progress.
Chester race could be teed up for Linas
MONTE LINAS remains a horse of interest for the in-form Simon and Ed Crisford yard and he is over-priced under James Doyle in Chester’s Edinburgh Gin Seaside Handicap.
Unraced as a two-year-old and gelded before his winning debut at Chelmsford in April, he stepped up on that performance when second under a penalty at the same track the following month, and his subsequent fifth at Chepstow can definitely be marked up as he suffered interference when the pace was quickening.
The horse he followed home on his second start – James Fanshawe’s filly American Belle – was getting the thick end of a stone in weight and she’s since franked the form with a ready handicap success off 76 at Doncaster, earning a revised mark of 81.
That makes Monte Linas look potentially quite well handicapped from an opening 83 and while he might need a spot of luck to negotiated a path through this field, the seriously strong pace forecast (‘extreme’ according to Timeform), could help things fall into place late on.
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Published at 1500 BST on 16/06/23
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