York Ebor tips: Preview and best antepost value bets for Ebor Festival

• The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
• Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 140pts profit and he's +49pts for the calendar year.
• So far this Flat season his winners have included Rebel Territory at 7/1, Rainbow Fire at 6/1, Metier at 6/1, Croupier at 14/1, Roberto Escobarr at 9/2, Austrian Theory at 9/1, Cadillac at 14/1, Equality at 13/2 and Killybegs Warrior at 22/1.

Antepost Value Bet tips: 2023 Flat season

1pt win Gaassee in Sky Bet Ebor at 16/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Don’t underestimate improving Varian filly

Feed The Flame kicked Adelaide River and Soul Sister into touch with a sweeping late move to win Friday’s Grand Prix de Paris and it’s seemingly dawning on everyone that the home team is going to put up a stern defence in this year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe come early-October.

Only two of the last eight Arc winners were trained on home soil but Pascal Bary’s colt joins his Prix du Jockey Club conqueror Ace Impact – now the clear market-topper given this significant advertisement of the form – as another leading contender for the Longchamp showpiece, and the French challenge seems unlikely to start and end with that pair.

With Aidan O’Brien’s Savethelastdance comfortably held by Soul Sister in the Oaks at Epsom, if there’s a champion three-year-old filly to pose the males some problems that seems highly like to be the Christopher Head-trained Blue Rose Cen, winner of the French Guineas and the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) this year.

She also ended last season with a win at the top table in the Prix Marcel Boussac so has oozed class from a very early stage, and connections should be applauded for aiming her at next month’s Nassau Stakes at the Qatar Goodwood Festival.

Blue Rose Cen – who would still need to be supplemented for the Arc if connections are tempted - could easily have been wrapped in cotton wool before a relatively soft trial as she sampled the mile and a half trip for the first time in the Vermeille, but it’s almost certain she’ll make the trip to the UK to tackle another Group 1 over 10 furlongs first, where she’ll no doubt meet Friday’s Falmouth Stakes winner - and 2022 Nassau heroine – Nashwa.

Blue Rose Cen is a best-priced 7/4 favourite for the Nassau, with Nashwa cut across the board to 3/1 generally post-Newmarket, but the little winning machine Al Husn is the one who now looks over-priced at 10/1 having beaten Nashwa off level weights at Newcastle at the end of June.

John Gosden was doing his best to offer up a bunch of possible excuses for Nashwa’s defeat that day in the immediate aftermath of the Falmouth, but Roger Varian’s highly progressive filly appeared to beat her fair and square to me. That took her career record to six wins from nine starts, while she’s clearly versatile in terms of ground too.

Should a lop-sided match market become available closer to the time then I’d have no qualms about recommending Al Husn to uphold the form with Nashwa, but the presence of Blue Rose Cen is enough to put me off pulling the trigger in the outright betting which is understandably all that’s available this far out.

Dawn could bounce back for Hannon

Al Husn appears one to revisit in a couple of weeks’ time and, with Goodwood firmly in sight now, I’m also keen to keep Dawn Of Liberation flagged as a potential bet for the Coral Golden Mile.

The likes of Darkness and Blue For You have run blindingly obvious ‘trials’ for this valuable handicap in recent days and the layers have reacted accordingly, but I’m not sure we should be reading too much into Dawn Of Liberation’s Saturday effort when last of the 18 runners in York’s John Smith’s Cup.

Trained by Richard Hannon, the son of Churchill has become a bit of an all-or-nothing character but he didn’t like the weekend rain and he probably wasn’t in love with the new trip either, for all that he never looked like figuring at any point from a wide draw.

He’d previously finished seventh of 14 in his group (20th overall) in the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot so on the face of it he’s not been able to build on a relatively encouraging effort when fourth behind Boardman at Chester in May. But I’m a forgiving sort if the price justifies a little leniency and this horse has bounced back from a complete no-show in the past.

Put it this way, I’m not sure I’d want to be laying Dawn Of Liberation at 50/1 for a race that has probably been his long-term target all season.

He was tried at Listed level after winning a conditions race over the same mile at Goodwood last spring and has only run half a dozen times since that most recent win. All the while his handicap mark has been edging down and he could do some damage off 96 if Hannon is able to sweeten him up for a meeting at which the yard has traditionally enjoyed loads of success.

I can’t imagine he’ll run again between now and the race, though, and he’ll likely be officially ‘wrong’ at the weights if dropped again for the John Smith’s Cup performance, so there’s no mad rush to do any more than keep him in mind until running plans become a lot clearer.

Step on the Gaas with Ebor wager

Elsewhere on Saturday, Real Dream won easily in a depleted field on his first go over a mile and three-quarters at Ascot, a victory that saw him promoted to favouritism for the Sky Bet Ebor at 10/1 across the board.

He’d run encouragingly over 12 furlongs at the Dante Festival at York earlier in the year and will be a big player back there next month, no matter how severe the assessor is in light of his four and a quarter-length Ascot verdict over Crescent Lake. He won’t be going up a stone or anything too drastic I wouldn't have thought, but an 8-10lb rise should at least put him right on the cusp of making the Ebor cut and it’s no surprise he’s so short.

It'll be fascinating to see where the William Haggas-trained Millebosc – only seventh after being well-punted through the week for the John Smith’s Cup – runs next as he might need to climb up the ladder a little from his current 97 if he’s to take up his Ebor entry.

Rolling back a couple of weeks, I thought Millebosc’s stablemate GAASSEE ran a very eyecatching race at Haydock (replay below) and I reckon it could be worth backing last year’s beaten Ebor favourite (4/1) to atone at the current 16/1 widely on offer for this year's edition.

He had a light campaign last term and clearly didn’t perform on the big day on the Knavesmire having again shaped with considerable promise in Haydock’s Old Newton Cup, but he’s stood more racing this time around after being gelded in the off-season and I suspect we’ll see him out again before York.

• Click here to back Gaassee for the Sky Bet Ebor

He’s been nudged back up to a mark of 100 from 99 so might not necessarily need another outing to guarantee him a place in the Ebor field (22 max), but after running in May, June and July I’m not sure Haggas will now want to leave him 50 days or so without a prep run again, and he just looks to be arcing back to peak form with a return to York at the top of his agenda.

If that’s the case then he could advertise his claims even more bluntly in the coming weeks and I don’t want to be caught regretting what might have been if he becomes the next major market springer.

Click here for the full Value Bet record

Published at 1500 BST on 16/07/23

More from Sporting Life

• Racecards
• Fast results
• Full results and free video replays
• Horse racing news
• Horse racing tips
• Horse racing features
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Football and other sports tips
• Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org