It's the much-anticipated Sky Bet Ebor shortly and Matt Brocklebank, whose first York selection has won, reckons he's unearthed a big-priced contender.
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Value Bet tips: Saturday August 26
1pt win Middle Earth in 2.25 York at 9/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Cemhaan in 3.35 York at 33/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt win Significantly in 4.10 York at 14/1 (General)
Already advised:
1pt win Gaassee in 3.35 York at 16/1 (non-runner)
Baker and Doyle to cook up an Ebor treat?
Rain on the radar for Sky Bet Ebor day at York but nothing to be overly concerned about and I’m working on the basis that we’ll still be looking at good ground - at worst - come the big race at 3.35.
It’s not the most competitive recent Ebor by any means and it turns out John and Thady Gosden’s progressive Sweet William could have crept in at the bottom without the 4lb penalty for his latest win in the Coral Summer Handicap at Goodwood.
The Gosden-trained Trawlerman won the same race with a similar degree of comfort before following up in this 12 months ago and he’s going to take a bit of beating from stall three given his apparent versatility when it comes to trip and ground – don’t forget he has racked up a summer hat-trick over 1m4f on good to firm, 2m on good and 1m6f on heavy.
The horse who followed the favourite home at Goodwood, Adjuvant, is also in with a major shout as he’s 4lb better off for a two and three-quarter-length defeat, Frankie Dettori going fairly easy on him once it was clear Sweet William was hacking all over the eventual runner-up.
With Sweet William’s owner staying loyal to Rab Havlin as promised, Dettori now jumps ship from Adjuvant to ride the Willie Mullins-trained Absurde, who had some Listed Flat form in France before winning a novice hurdle for his new connections at Killarney in May.
He was second to stablemate Vauban in the Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot the following month and you can probably strike a line through the odds-on reverse back over hurdles at Galway as not much went right for him from the outset in Ballybrit.
However, if you’re even vaguely thinking about backing Absurde to give Frankie back-to-back wins and the copybook Ebor send-off, there’s a very decent case to be made for George Baker's CEMHAAN at a much bigger price.
He’s 1lb better off with Absurde having finished just a short-head behind that rival at Ascot, the pair obviously well held by the thrown-in winner but three and a half lengths clear of the fourth, Chillingham. In fact, I'm convinced Cemhaan would have beaten Absurde had he not tried to chase down Vauban, just paying for those exertions in the dying strides.
Chillingham has since been beaten a head in a valuable race at Ripon so the Ascot form stacks up and the Copper Horse has generally been a pretty reliable source of winners since the race’s inception in 2020 – the inaugural victor Fujaira Prince landing the Ebor on his very next start.
Cemhaan had a cracking season last year, winning three handicaps including a clear-cut verdict over HMS President at Newmarket, and looks to have improved again for the winter breathing operation.
He soon put a quiet comeback run behind him when bolting up from the front at Kempton (1m4f) towards the end of May. The massive Royal meeting run (drifted to 66/1 on the day) followed and he’s been kept on the back-burner for this since which makes sense given connections were reportedly hoping to try and sneak in near the foot of the weights 12 months ago.
He’s found himself nearer the top than the bottom this year as it happens, but he’s obviously got a real touch of class and, crucially, he’s adaptable when it comes to tactics as he often races handily – which is a great asset at York – but doesn’t have to lead.
Drawn in 10, there are a few slower starters down on his inside so Hollie Doyle should be able to position Cemhaan where she wants through the early stages and if he settles then he definitely has a change of gear for a horse who also stays so well. I'd love to see him right on the sharp end but Tashkhan and Caius Chorister may be the ones vying for front-running duties.
Cemhaan has won decent races carrying 9-10 (twice) and 9-9 (also twice), two of which came on soft ground, so relatively big weights evidently aren’t an issue for the six-year-old and he looks a great each-way option among the outsiders.
Significantly better ground the key factor
The Sky Bet Constantine Handicap is packed with old favourites and familiar faces, though the one totally unexposed runner in the line-up is Phil Kirby’s new recruit Anthem National, who I was happy to take a chance on ahead of his supposed stable debut in the Great St Wilfrid last weekend.
He was a non-runner at Ripon due to the overnight rain but there’s always a chance that could happen again and I’m not convinced he’ll want an out-and-out speed test at York anyway as he was running over seven furlongs in the main last term.
Instead, I’ll turn to a likely sort among the more hardy campaigners and while SIGNIFICANTLY has been called anything but hardy at times in the past, Julie Camacho looks to have found the key to him having fitted a pair of cheekpieces for his last three starts.
The ex-Karl Burke representative has run four times in total for his new yard and has performed with credit on each occasion, the Haydock win an obvious highlight but his last two efforts not far behind in pure form terms.
He went straight into the notebook for a race like the Portland after his sixth on bottomless ground in the Stewards’ Cup last time as he still looked to be in rattling good form, just not quite seeing it out in the conditions.
Six furlongs on better ground at York should be fine for the horse and while he was well beaten in the five and a half-furlong handicap at this meeting last year on his only previous visit to the track, he was rather in the wilderness at the time and running off a mark of 100.
He gets in here off 94, just 1lb higher than when having to carry a penalty at Goodwood, and is another who tends to race close to the pace so there’s plenty to like.
Gosden project to come of age in Melrose
Cheekpieces look to have got True Legend firmly back on track lately too and he was my first port of call in the Sky Bet Melrose Handicap.
Unfortunately, his odds have contracted a fair bit since the final declarations and, even on the back of a tough punting week, I’m going to try to remain as price sensitive as ever.
MIDDLE EARTH looks more than fair around the 9/1 mark as he’s progressed with every start and is bred to be better than his introductory rating (93) as a Roaring Lion half-brother to the likes of dual Listed winner Buckaroo and teak-tough, high-class handicapper Kihavah.
After an encouraging debut effort at Sandown, Middle Earth bumped into the same stable’s St Leger dark horse Lion’s Pride (runs in the 6.20 Windsor on Saturday – a Listed race) and then seemed to show a lot more resolution when battling to a nose victory in a Newmarket novice, he and a subsequent odds-on winner pulling nine lengths clear of the third.
Middle Earth shapes like he’ll relish the extra couple of furlongs on offer in this event and smacks of a horse the Gosdens are only now beginning to get to grips with. His form could really take off on handicap debut this weekend.
Published at 1600 BST on 25/08/23
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