Will Kempton Park see another Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner in Kalpana on Saturday?

Juddmonte’s Arc love affair continues

First there was Rainbow Quest, in 1985, thanks to the Parisian stewards. A year on it was Dancing Brave, demolishing a truly magnificent field. 20 years later Rail Link was prepared by the Arc maestro Andre Fabre to sink bigger names (including stablemate Hurricane Run). In 2010 Workforce realised a long-time ambition for Sir Michael Stoute under an inspired Ryan Moore. In 2017 John Gosden’s Enable came along; once, twice, almost thrice. And then Bluestocking.

The late Prince Khalid Abdullah – and therefore Juddmonte’s – relationship with the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe has been a rich one, Bluestocking’s victory in the famous green, white, pink silks last year making those colours the ones that have been carried past the Arc winning post in front more than any others.

For trainer Ralph Beckett it was potentially a career-defining day. The same might be said for jockey Rossa Ryan. For Juddmonte it was another piece of thread in their Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe tapestry and, 12 months on, the needle is poised once more thanks to the development of Kalpana.

In charge of her campaign is Andrew Balding, a trainer who has run more horses in Britain this year than every other one bar Tim Easterby. A trainer who has trained more winners in Britain this year than every other one full stop - and by some distance, too – the gap is 41 and counting at the time of writing. He’ll be trying to emulate his father, Ian, who trained the 1971 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Mill Reef - a spectacular three-length victor under jockey Geoff Lewis, who died just last week at the age of 89.

On top of Kalpana will be Colin Keane, a jockey quickly having to learn the idiosyncrasies of Britain's racetracks in his new role as Juddmonte’s number one. It hasn’t been seamless, a 13% strike-rate in the UK this year hinting as much, while a ban ruled him out of that reverse on Field Of Gold at Goodwood, but, judging by Juddmonte’s early entries, it could be a golden autumn for him and, on the first Sunday in October in Paris, Kalpana might well be the star turn.

Why is Kalpana Arc favourite?

The history and the humans are largely irrelevant here. Okay, the Enable and Bluestocking blueprint might be factored in a little, Kalpana would be the fourth Abdullah/Juddmonte filly to win the Arc in the last nine years, after all, but her status as ante-post market leader is down to her own progression, her own potential and her own opportunity.

You can trace the progression back to last year’s September Stakes at Kempton. At that stage the 1m4f Group 3 on the Sunbury polytrack looked a natural next step up from a Listed win over 1m3f at Haydock in the July. She had won on the all-weather on debut at Wolverhampton and she looked ready for the mile-and-a-half again, something she proved in spades as she ran out a four-and-three-quarter length winner in impressive fashion.

It was the perfect stepping stone to her announcing herself on Champions Day at Ascot the following month, her ready two-length verdict over Wingspan in the Group 1 British Champions Fillies & Mares on soft ground a clear career-best and first top-level success at the first attempt.

She has been confined to the elite level this season and, despite not winning, she improved on her 10-furlong form quite significantly when second in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot in July, looking the likely winner deep into the race until the gelding Calandagan, barred from running in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, got to her in the closing stages.

Here is where the potential comes in, as while she has been running well over 10 furlongs and then in the King George over 1m4f on good ground, it is anticipated that she could well improve again on softer conditions. Her Champions Day victory suggests as much. And while the ground at Longchamp isn’t guaranteed to go that way, five of the last six Arcs have been run on ‘Very Soft’ or 'Heavy’, the other being ‘Good to Soft’.

Added to this her sire Study Of Man, himself by Deep Impact who was one of the vanquished behind Rail Link in the 2006 Arc, was at his best with cut in the ground, as he showed when winning the 2018 Prix du Jockey Club. His progeny tend to be hardy, stay well and relish such conditions, too. Kalpana looks a prime example.

As for the opportunity, we’ve already alluded to the fact Calandagan can’t run. The other star middle-distance horse in Europe this season, Ombudsman, isn’t going to Paris either. It doesn't look a vintage renewal. The colts that might run haven’t shown form good enough, as yet, to make us believe they can win an Arc. Consequently, as so often has been the case in recent years, the destination of the Arc trophy could lie with the fillies and mares.

Analysis: Will she shorten again?

A best of 6/1 at present, plenty will depend on Aidan O’Brien’s team. His three-year-old fillies look the dangers, with English, Irish and Yorkshire Oaks winner Minnie Hauk said to be ‘on the Arc programme’ despite needing to be supplemented for Paris, while Whirl could throw her hat into the Arc ring in Sunday’s Prix Vermeille.

Whirl has a one-and-a-quarter length verdict over Kalpana on her record already after beating her in the 10-furlong Pretty Polly at the Curragh (the 12lb weight-for-age allowance she received in June would be reduced to 7lb by the Arc), but she has looked better over 10 furlongs and will have options over that trip later in the season win, lose or draw in the Vermeille. If Kalpana’s price holds up, it’ll likely be because O’Brien runs both.

We’ll see what the other trials throw up, as well, while it has to be acknowledged that Kalpana’s own assignment in Saturday’s Group 3 Unibet September Stakes isn’t the penalty kick it might have been with the 120-rated Giavellotto a potential rival. He’s a good horse who goes well fresh and he was 2/2 on the all-weather early in his career, but he does have to give Kalpana 3lb. He also stays further, needs to chase a good pace and Kalpana should have too much zip for him.

The potential clash throws back memories to 2018 when Enable, already with one Arc in her back pocket, prepped for her defence in the September Stakes against Crystal Ocean – that year’s King George second. Kempton racegoers watched on as she easily swatted him away, the bookies went 9/4 about her for the Arc afterwards and a month later she just held on at Longchamp to seal a second success in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

Balding and Keane will be confident Kalpana can have a similar prep on Saturday. A three or four-length victory would do very nicely indeed. Whatever the length of victory, though, a first win of the season, at the very least, looks a necessity. It is expected, whoever turns up against her, and it will be a vital box ticked for Juddmonte’s latest Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe hopeful as she bids to further tighten her claims on Longchamp’s most prestigious prize.

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