Matt Brocklebank identifies the trainers to follow at this year's Lincoln meeting based on recent records at the Doncaster curtain-raiser.
Whether you're still yearning for the jumps stars who lit up Cheltenham to strut their stuff one last time before heading out to grass, or itching to get stuck into the speedier side of the game, it's hard to deny the fact the British Flat turf season begins in a slightly strange manner. The traditional two-day curtain-raiser at Doncaster is followed by something of a lull as the final throws of the National Hunt campaign continue to take centre stage.
After Sunday's Doncaster card comes to a close, the next UK Flat fixture on the grass pops up at Leicester the following Friday, April 1, while it’s not until the week commencing Monday April 4 that momentum grows a little courtesy of meetings at Redcar and Windsor, following by Pontefract on the Tuesday, and Catterick and Nottingham on the Wednesday.
Thirsk then stages the sole Flat turf meeting on Saturday April 9 so one could be forgiven for not really feeling in full swing when it comes to the summer sport prior to the start of the Craven meeting at Newmarket the midweek after that (April 12-14).
A fast start to the Flat season cannot be easy to achieve given the punctuated programming, though some appear far better equipped than others at this time of year and the graphic below shows strike-rates (SR) and run-to-form (RTF) percentages (via Timeform) of the leading trainers at this fixture over the past five seasons.
Here we focus on some of those fast-starting yards that have typically done well at the Lincoln meeting, and highlight their principal contenders this weekend.
ROGER VARIAN
Having won with half of his eight Lincoln meeting runners over the past handful of seasons, Varian is obviously a man to follow at the fixture and his three wins in the past five editions of the SBK Doncaster Mile Stakes have played a key part in that.
ROYAL CHAMPION - the only Saturday entry for the Newmarket handler - goes for the same prize this year and this one-time Derby hopeful drops back to the trip over which he was successful first time out at Newmarket in September 2020. He's not raced since a disappointing effort in last year's Dante but looks likely to be primed for his comeback outing.
Varian also has a couple of unraced three-year-old entered in Sunday's SBK Novice Stakes, namely Doux Esprit and Goemon.
CHARLIE APPLEBY
Charlie Appleby's strike-rate is so high generally it shouldn't come as a surprise to see a recent 30% record at Doncaster's opening fixture but what may be more significant is that SBK Lincoln contender MODERN NEWS is his only runner on Saturday.
He's spent some time out in Dubai during the winter months and ran well when third in a Listed race at Meydan a little over a month ago. That should put him right and drying conditions are bound to suit this seven-furlong course winner, with promising apprentice Harry Davies (able to claim 7lb in this contest) coming in for the ride.
Appleby could unleash gelded newcomer Border Edge in Sunday's SBK Novice Stakes, with twice-raced Independent Act his only other possible runner in the 10-furlong SBK Betting Zone - Daily Tips & Insight Handicap.
RICHARD HANNON
Richard Hannon's Lincoln contender Teodolina has produced her best with some cut in the ground and may struggle to show her true form with the sun beating down on Town Moor, but the yard's raid on Doncaster doesn't start and end in the feature race.
Chindit holds leading form claims in the SBK Doncaster Mile Stakes and has won when fresh in the past, while a market check is imperative regarding two-year-old debutant PERSIAN FORCE - a Mehmas full-brother to Gubbass, incidentally who won first time out on fast ground as a juvenile - in the SBK Brocklesby.
Hannon, who boasts an impressive 71% RTF figure here over the past five years, has several entries on Sunday too including four-year-old Gustav Holst, who has a few options and has been gelded over the winter following an encouraging second at Chelmsford in October which came after a breathing operation in the summer.
ANDREW BALDING
Andrew Balding has hit the ground running on the back of a sensational year in 2021 and there is every reason to expect positive results for the trainer this weekend.
Notre Belle Bete has the look of a highly-progressive horse fresh off the all-weather under a 5lb penalty in the SBK Lincoln itself and a Lincoln-Spring Mile double isn't completely off the table with May Night going in the consolation race sporting first-time cheekpieces which could help spark a little more improvement.
Balding's best chance, however, might come in the SBK Betting Podcast Maiden Stakes in which GROUNDBREAKER make his three-year-old debut in a first-time hood.
Running in the same Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum silks as Royal Champion, the son of Oasis Dream improved on his Kempton debut effort when stepped up to a mile at the same track in mid-December, finishing second and splitting two well-fancied runners from top yards.
The fourth, Al Qareem, has won at Newcastle and finished second in a Southwell handicap off 81 since so the form looks above average and Groundbreaker is entitled to improve again for the move up to 10 furlongs.
DAVID O’MEARA
It may come as a slight surprise to see David O'Meara having had just one winner at this meeting over the five-year period but he's only saddled nine runners and he's getting up close to 70% in terms of RTF so another winner or two this weekend wouldn't be a shock.
Like Balding's May Night, the O'Meara-trained Star Shield is another with fitness on his side going into the SBK Spring Mile Handicap, while both Darkness and Hortzadar have interesting claims in the SBK Lincoln.
New recruit Darkness has a similar profile to the same stable's Mondialiste and Lord Glitters who both filled the runner-up spot in this event before going on to win major races and time may tell backing the ex-Jean-Claude Rouget runner of a mark of 95 is something of a gift.
I wouldn't be too swift to rule out Hortzadar either given he return to this race off a 7lb lower mark when a two-length third to Haqeeqy but O'Meara's best chance on Saturday looks to be AL QAASIM in division one of the SBK Apprentice Handicap.
Jockey Mark Winn hasn't exactly lived up to his name for this trainer yet (he's 0-14 for O'Meara) but he looks a very capable apprentice and his mount has had a good time of things on the all-weather lately. He proved his stamina for this trip when runner-up at Chelmsford early last month and now switches back to turf with a new tongue-tie/cheekpieces combination.
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